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  • 11
    Feb
    2010
    5:55pm, EST

    Tehran tries to cut off the head

    By msnbc.com staff
    Eyewitness reports vetted by reliable groups are now coming out of Iran, indicating that the government response specifically targeted opposition leaders to demoralize the protesters.

    Opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi was ambushed as he descended from his vehicle at Sadeghiyeh Square, his son Hossein said in an interview with Tehran Bureau, an independent Western news organization affiliated with PBS's "Frontline" that reports extensively from Iran. He said Karroubi was being treated for burns to his face and eyes after having been attacked repeatedly with pepper spray.

    Hossein Karroubi also confirmed that another of Karroubi's sons, Ali, had been arrested. He said the family didn't know where he was being held or how he was being treated.

    In addition to the arrest of Zahra Rahnavard, the wife of the main opposition leader, Mir Hossein Mousavi, which has been confirmed by Western news agencies, independent and opposition reports said Mohammad Reza Khatami, a brother of reformist former president Seyyed Mohammed Khatami, was arrested, the opposition Web site Jaras, or Green Road Network, claimed. A vehicle carrying Khatami himself was attacked, it said, without offering further details.

    This video purports to show Karroubi's supporters cheering his arrival in Arya Shahr before his arrest:

    Mohammad Ashrafi, a leader of the anti-government labor movement, was arrested before dawn, his wife told the anti-government Iran News Agency.

    Zahra Eshraghi, granddaughter of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of the 1979 revolution, was arrested briefly, the opposition Web site Rahesabz said in a report that was eventually confirmed by Western agencies.

    Numerous reports indicated that many further arrests were likely later today. This video, which NBC News hasn't been able to verify,  claims to show of masses of riot police walking along the street, carrying paintball guns to tag protesters for arrest:

    "They broke the momentum," a U.S. official told NBC News' Robert Windrem. "This is a good day for the Revolutionary Guard, as well."

    Another U.S. official conceded that "it appears things have gone relatively well for the regime," but he added, "The trick is that, while this solves the day, it does not solve the problem."

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  • 11
    Feb
    2010
    3:13pm, EST

    Reading the electronic tea leaves from Iran

    By msnbc.com staff
    Piecing together and interpreting the events taking place Thursday in Iran on the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution is an exercise in electronic tea-leaf reading.

    Because of the hard-line Islamic government's restrictions on foreign media coverage, news organizations around the world are forced to largely rely on what appear to be first-person accounts of the events in Tehran – often in the form of incremental Tweets and YouTube videos.

    Foreign media, including NBC News' Ali Arouzi, were only allowed to cover the official ceremonies in Freedom Square, where Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addressed hundreds of thousands of government supporters. Arouzi reported that he and the handful of other accredited reporters in Iran were bused to the rally, penned into a certain section, barred from talking to even the government supporters and then taken away by bus. He said they were told that they were absolutely prohibited from going out independently to film activities on the streets of Tehran. Click here for Arouzi's report today.

    To fill the void, news organizations turned to the Internet. 

    NBC News, for example, assembled a team of reporters, researchers and producers to review the material and, where possible, authenticate reports, photos and video that appeared to be emanating from Iran.

    That team -- led by Mark Lukasiewicz, NBC News specials and digital media vice president, and including Iranian-born journalist and author Hamoon Majd, who provided translation of Farsi and an intimate familiarity with Tehran and the opposition movement -- pored over new videos and photos as they came in.

    In some cases, they were able to link separate pieces through audio or landmarks visible in the backgrounds to provide a clearer picture of a single event.

    After clarifying what was known and not known about the material, that team then passed the material on to broadcast, cable and Web producers.  Their notes were laden with cautions about  the difficulty of  establishing beyond any doubt the provenance of individual photos or videos.

    Here are a few examples of the sort of material that they reviewed and what they were able to discern:

    In this YouTube video, shot by a strolling pedestrian, a large crowd of riot police is seen gathered on a major street leading to the square where Ahmedinijad spoke.

     

    This video apparently shot from a state-run TV helicopter shows the massive official celebration along the streets of Tehran. 

    This 20-second video shows a riot policeman beating man into submission. The reviewers were not able to verify when or where this was shot.

    This YouTube video apparently shows a very small pro-government rally in the city of Esfahan. The videographer, apparently an opposition supporter, can be heard laughing while taping, and says, "See, this is it. …this is the government's power. See … that's it!"

    In this video, protesters rip down a banner showing Ayatollah Khamenei and another senior cleric as supporters honk car horns. The location of the protest could not be established.

    This stuttery, 2-minute video shows the apparent tear-gassing of an anti-government crowd in suburban area. After a projectile trailing red smoke is launched into crowd, the group begins to disperse.

    Other news organizations are doing similar reporting, crawling the Internet for news out of Iran.  They include blogs in Britain's The Guardian and the BBC. as well as in The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Daily Beast and from Andrew Sullivan.

    If you have any insight or information about any of this material, please post it in the comments below.

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  • 17
    Jun
    2009
    5:13pm, EDT

    Power play: Who truly rules Iran?

    As thousands of Iranians openly challenge their government and the legitimacy of their president, NBC News' Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel breaks down the power structure within the Islamic republic.

    Image: Ali Khamenei
    VIDEO: Power play: Who truly rules Iran?

     

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  • 16
    Jun
    2009
    6:30pm, EDT

    Iran to media: no cameras allowed

    By Ali Arouzi, NBC News Producer

    TEHRAN -- As the post-election crisis in Iran continues, authorities have barred all journalists working for foreign media from reporting on activities in the streets. And foreign reporters who went to Iran to cover last week's elections are beginning to leave, as officials say their visas will not be extended. 

    Ali Arouzi, an NBC News Producer based in Tehran, discusses how difficult it is to report the story in the middle of a media blackout.  

    How are you covering the story?
    The journalists who had visas to cover the elections have now been told that they have to leave the country. And the journalists who have permanent press cards here, such as myself, have been told that we are absolutely not allowed to film in the streets, that it is prohibited.

    VIDEO: NBC's Ali Arouzi reports on the ongoing demonstrations in Iran

    The Ministry of Islamic Guidance, which looks after the foreign press here, issued these new rules, saying that these demands have come from above.

    But we were out today, walking in the streets, without a camera. We were out and we were just observing what was going on.  

    How are Iranian officials restricting reporting? 

    They have essentially cut off all communication. All mobile phones have been cut off. Text messaging is gone. Internet has become very sporadic – sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. None of these things work.

    When we went out in the streets on Tuesday, we couldn't call in to do a phone interview because the mobile phones have been cut off.   

    In terms of doing live reports, the Ministry of Islamic Guidance has given us permission to report from inside our office and appear on television from there. But we are not allowed to do any filming outside. No photographs, no video cameras, no mobile phone footage.

    There are still tons of students outside using their mobile phone cameras. Several days ago they were able to send images via the Internet, but I don't know if they can right now. That's why we are seeing so few images coming out of here, and I think we'll see even fewer in the days ahead.

    How is the government enforcing the rules restricting reporting?
    If security forces see someone with a camera outside, they will be arrested within a second. The government has made it very clear that it is illegal right now to film outside. And there are huge numbers of plainclothes security forces on the streets to enforce the rules.

    Why were the cell phones one of the first things cut off by the government?
    The cell phones have been cut off because they were a tool that the demonstrators were using to communicate with each other and organize rallies and protests – especially by text messaging. Text messaging was the most powerful tool used by the protesters to organize rallies and keep people in the loop about what's going on where.

    But text messaging has been completely cut off for about five or six days now. Mobile phone reception keeps coming in and out. Whenever the mobiles get cut off totally like this, it's an indication that the government here is worried about a lot of unrest.

    One of the important things to note though is that these rallies that are going on now are being organized via word of mouth. Everybody at every corner will tell you – up there is this rally, down there is this rally, make sure you walk towards that place.

    Word of mouth is spreading through Tehran like wildfire.

    More on Iran:
    Iranian protesters duel in streets, online
    Slideshow: Iran elections and reaction
    NYTimes Blog: 'Disturbers of peace'
    Washington Post: Signs of fraud abound, but not hard evidence

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  • 12
    Jun
    2009
    5:24pm, EDT

    Iranian election is a social event for many

    By Richard Engel, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent

     TEHRAN – As the sun began to set, the scene outside the polling station at the Husseiniya Ershad mosque in downtown Tehran was like a big social gathering.

    A young bride and groom walked into the polling station to vote together on their big day. And a lot of the women voters in this particular neighborhood turned exercising their political rights into something of an outing.

    Image:
    SLIDESHOW: Iran votes

    Some women wore full-length black chadors, the cloak traditionally worn by Iranian women in public. But the majority of the ones at this polling station have been sported brightly colored head scarfs, pulled back to the top of their foreheads or even the middle of their heads, with a lot of hair spray and even heavy make-up. Many have said "Hello" to each other and exchanged phone numbers.

    The sense of the election as a social event extended to the opposite sex as well.

    Male and female students in this country usually don't have much of an opportunity to meet and socialize. But at the street rallies during the last several nights in Tehran, many men and women were jumping up and down and cheering – together. That kind of interaction is very rare here because unmarried men and women are restricted from mingling with each other in this country.

    VIDEO: Poll closing time extended in Iran

    So for many of them, the election has been a celebration of what they hope will be newfound political rights, new social freedoms, and an opportunity to express themselves. It's been a rare chance to yell out in front of television cameras and at stadiums their dissatisfaction with the status quo.

    The other day, for example, we were at a rally in a big soccer stadium. Theoretically, it was supposed to be divided between half men and half women – but it didn't happen. There were a lot of women on the men's side and vice versa. It was not quite as split as you would normally find in Iranian society. 

    Although the authorities have been exercising a great deal of restraint and tolerance – at least by Iranian standards – during the election season, not everything is allowed. If you walked down the street in a mini-skirt, you would be arrested, without a doubt, immediately.

    I am not sure whether we'll see the restraint continue after the election. But during this period of political expression, the government has chosen to let the people have their say.

    Related links
    Slideshow: Iran votes
    Fact file: Who are the candidates in the Iranian election?
    Video: Dateline's Ann Curry goes Inside Iran

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  • 12
    Jun
    2009
    12:30pm, EDT

    A ‘celebration of democracy’ for the Islamic Republic 

    By Richard Engel, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent

     TEHRAN – I'm outside one of the main polling booths here, a large mosque in downtown Tehran. The polls are supposed to officially close soon. But from where I'm sitting, it's clear that will not be enough time. I am looking at hundreds of people on the steps of this mosque trying to get into to vote.

    According to Iranian officials the turnout has been unprecedented. There are estimates that as many as 70 percent of eligible voters have turned out.

    VIDEO: Record turnout expected in Iran vote

    That could be an indication that many of the young people who have been so inspired by this campaign and came out in the tens of thousands to demonstrate, demand change and protest against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad actually did come out today to vote.

    That was always the big question. Whenever you have so many students who are leading a charge, it's unclear if they will actually turn out on voting day. That seems to have taken place today. Many of the people we saw were young people. 

    The polling stations we've seen have been very calm and orderly.  Aside from the big crowds, we haven't seen any pushing or shoving. It's been very organized. There is security, but it hasn't been threatening in any way. The security has been mostly in terms of crowd control – from what we've seen.

    The average waiting time in line doesn't seem to be much more than an hour. Some people have talked about waiting two or three hours, but the lines that we've seen have been moving fairly quickly.

    Iranian state television has reporters in several of the key voting districts, broadcasting live from the polling centers.

    The state media are describing it as a celebration of democracy, that the election shows that the Islamic Republic can have a free vote and that it is in line with the principals of the Islamic Revolution. 

    So they are celebrating this as a major achievement, but are saying that of course the results are too early to call.

    Members of the opposition say that their own internal polling shows that their candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is in the lead. However government officials are saying that it is too early to tell and accused Mousavi's supporters, who are claiming to have this data, of trying to influence the vote while it is still in progress.

    Related links
    Slideshow: Iran votes
    Fact file: Who are the candidates in the Iranian election?
    Video: Dateline's Ann Curry goes Inside Iran

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  • 13
    Mar
    2009
    7:18pm, EDT

    Old foes Iran, U.S. wrestle it out

    By Ali Arouzi, NBC News Producer

     TEHRAN, Iran – When you see an American flag in Iran, it's usually on fire.

    But that wasn't the case during the Takhti Cup, a two-day freestyle wrestling tournament hosted by Iran. The United States competed against nine other nations – including Iran – and the Stars and Stripes waved proudly throughout the event.

    "We love being in Iran. It's the greatest wrestling country in the world. It's a wonderful place to come and compete," said Zeke Jones, head coach of the U.S. team. "The Iranian wrestlers are serious competition for us and the fans treat us like rock stars, so this is a great place."

    Image: Michael Zadik and Mostafa Hosseinkhani

    VIDEO: U.S. and Iran good sports on the mat  

    Jones, who originally visited Iran in 1998 and was one of the first Americans to compete in the country after a nearly 20-year freeze, said he hopes athletic events like this one will lead to warmer relations between the two countries.

    "As for the politics, I think that any time wrestling can be a tool to bring countries together, it's a wonderful thing," he said.

    Three decades ago, the United States cut off diplomatic ties with Iran after the protracted embassy hostage crisis. But since then, the two countries have occasionally put aside their differences for the sake of athletic competition. For example, this is the seventh time a U.S. team has competed in the Takhti Cup since 1998. Also an Iranian basketball team played in the United States last year.

    But these events don't always go according to plan. In February, at the eleventh hour, Iran decided not to issue visas for a U.S. women's badminton team who had been invited to compete in the country – a move the Obama administration at the time called "unfortunate."

    Star-struck fans
    The wrestling tournament kicked-off Thursday, with athletes from Cuba, Iraq, Turkey, Russia, among others, competing in Azadi (Freedom) stadium. Against the United States, Iran quickly gained the upper hand, winning two straight matches and drawing loud cheers.

    "They were cheering for Iran a little bit out there, but I think that's what it's about, you know. They cheer for their guys and appreciate good wrestling," said American Mike Tamillow, who lost to Iran's Rasoul Tavakoli. "It's great to be here, but I wish I had won."

    The Iranians were excited to get to watch the Americans wrestle in person. They painted their faces, banged on drums, honked horns, blew whistles and waved Iranian flags, all in the spirit of friendly sporting competition.

    "I am so happy the Americans are here, they are a great team. The only reason I came today was to see them," said Ali Galvani, an amateur wrestler and student. "I hope one day I can travel to America and watch them compete there." 

    After we spoke, he asked if I could take him down to where the American athletes were sitting so he could see them up close. We introduced him to the team and he was star struck. Afterwards he thanked me profusely, telling me I had made his year.

    Masoud Piran, a plumber, explained that what really mattered to him was the level of competition and that as long as the American's proved their athletic prowess, they'd win his respect. 

    "

    It's not important what country they are from, it's important that they are good wrestlers. If the Americans wrestle well, then we will support them, too," said Piran.

    Image:
    Hasan Sarbakhshian / AP
    Iranian gold medalist Rasoul Tavakkoli, left, and bronze medalist U.S. freestyle wrestler Michael Tamillow, pose during a medal ceremony at Iran's Takhti Wrestling Cup on Thursday. 

    'The Iranians are serious competition'
    In Friday's matches, team U.S.A. didn't fare much better against its hosts – but that didn't seem to affect the mutual respect both sides felt. (Over the two-day tournament, the U.S. wrestlers lost six and won five of their matches. And against the Iranians, they had five defeats and three wins.)

    Majid Roudbari, a wrestler in the 60 kilogram class, sang the praises of his American opponent, Shaun Bunch – albeit after he defeated him.

    "The American wrestlers are very well prepared – if you make one small mistake they will beat you. You know, we like the Americans a lot. Iranian people and American people become friends very easily," said Roudbari. "As for our government's positions, well, I can't comment on that, but I would love to compete in America."

    While the American wrestlers were excited to be in Iran, some of their family members were less than thrilled to see them go.

    "Friends and family back home [asked] me, 'Why are you going to Iran? Are you crazy?' They told us they were worried about us and they were praying for us – but I have never felt so safe in my life," said Brandon Slay, one of the coaches on Team USA.

    Slay hoped the event would play at least a small  role in warming relations between old adversaries

    "Americans don't hate Iranians and we know Iranians don't hate Americans. You can't make decision based on what a small sub-set of a population may think or feel. The majority of the people don't feel that way so don't stereotype them," Slay said. "If I can help my country bridge a gap with Iran well that's great."

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  • 26
    Feb
    2009
    2:48pm, EST

    A look inside Bushehr, Iran’s nuke facility

    By Ali Arouzi, NBC News Producer

    BUSHEHR, Iran – As we were bused from the airport in the southwestern coastal city of Bushehr toward Iran's nuclear power plant, the most noticeable feature was the large number of anti-aircraft guns dotted across the landscape to protect the facility from attack. 

    It was a rare occasion – after years of delays, Iranian and Russian engineers carried out a series of critical tests at Iran's first nuclear power plant Wednesday. The Iranian authorities offered a group of journalists a guided tour of the facility to showcase the event.  

    VIDEO: Iran showcases its nuclear plant to reporter

    The facility – which Iran says will be used to generate electricity – was built by the Russians at a cost of about a billion dollars.

    The tests on Wednesday were essentially a dry run, without enriched uranium in the rods, just lead, before full-scale operations are due to begin in the coming months.

    "We are very proud. Our power plant is on its way to being ready, despite all the pressure from the West not wanting us to advance," said Mohsen Shirzai, an engineer at the plant who was giving us a guided tour.

    The tour itself was sanitized and carefully stage managed, but that was not the point.

    The Iranians wanted to send a clear message to the international community: They have made a massive leap forward in their plans to develop nuclear technology, their nuclear plant is in its final stages and in a matter of months Iran will be a nuclear energy-powered country, despite efforts by American, Israel and Europe to curb the program.

    'A nuclear Iran'

    "The United States should face reality and accept living with a nuclear Iran," said Vice President Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.

    Aghazadeh went on to say that Iran has increased the number of centrifuges enriching uranium to 6,000, up from 5,000 in November. The move was in defiance of the U.N. Security Council demands that Iran halt all enrichment activities because it is a key process in the development of a nuclear bomb – as well as nuclear energy.

    Meantime, the Russian influence was plain to see everywhere at the plant. Dozens of Russian engineers were milling around the facility, teaching and working. Most of the signs in the plant were either in Persian or Russian. The Russians even had their own camp within the site with accommodations and shops selling Russian produce, an area that was closed off to Iranian personnel.

    During a joint press conference with the Russians and the Iranians inside the facility I asked Sergei Kiriyenko, the head of Russia's state Rosatom Atomic Corporation, how he could be confident that Iran will not develop a nuclear warhead.

    But his Iranian counterpart, Aghazadeh, wouldn't let Kiriyenko answer, saying that he was in a better position to answer that question. In his response, he unsurprisingly towed the government line that Iran has no intention of producing a nuclear warhead.

    Point of pride

    Signs of progress here at Busher are an enormous source of pride for Iranians. But coupled with Iran launching a satellite into space and reports that it has accumulated large quantities of enriched uranium – they are major causes for concern in the United States and Israel.

    Does Iran really have enough uranium to make a nuclear weapon?

    One thing is clear – if it doesn't today, it can speed up the process substantially, now that they have mastered these other complicated procedures.

    Council on Foreign Relations analysis: Is Iran really developing nuclear weapons?

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  • 10
    Feb
    2009
    5:23pm, EST

    In Iran, change they want to believe in

    By Ali Arouzi, NBC News Producer

    TEHRAN, Iran – The celebrations marking the 30th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution were conducted in traditional fashion – full of chants like "Death to America" and "Death to Israel."

    But 30 years on, the reaction among Iranians to the revolution that toppled the U.S.-backed shah and brought hard-line clerics to power is far from monolithic.

    Today, many of the people who helped usher in the Islamic revolution are disappointed with its legacy results; meanwhile, many of Iran's young people don't define their lives by a revolution that came about before they were born. 

    VIDEO: Iran marks 30th anniversary of Islamic Revolution, NBC's Ali Arouzi reports from Tehran

    Even President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday that Iran would welcome talks with the United States, if they were based on mutual respect.

    Could Iran be in for a new era of change? 

    Usual rhetoric

    At the large rally in Tehran's Freedom Square many spewed the usual anti-American rhetoric that has come to characterize relations for the last 30 years.

    "I hate America, I hate America and its lies," said Reza, a student attending the rally (like many people we spoke with, he would not give his last name). "We don't want better relations with America because they are our biggest enemy; this is why we had a revolution. The late imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah] Khomeini, the father of our revolution, did not want ties with America."   

    Hamid, another student at the rally, echoed Reza's comments. "Our revolution has spread across the world to Palestine to South America to Africa. It has given us freedom. If America wants better relations, then they have to make the effort."

    Ironically, Hamid was carrying a big poster of Ahmadinejad with the slogan "Yes we can," sprawled across it. Wasn't that U.S. President Barack Obama's slogan? I asked.  He responded that Obama had stolen it from Ahmadinejad.

    Rasoul, a retired army officer at the rally, also took a hard-line stance towards the United States. "Our revolution has achieved all its goals," he said." If America wants better relations then they have to take the first step. We are not a small nation to be bullied."

    But even Ahmadinejad, Iran's usually firebrand leader, alluded to a new "era of dialogue" in U.S.-Iranian relations in his speech to the crowd gathered for the rally. "The Iranian nation is ready for talks (with the U.S.) but in a fair atmosphere with mutual respect," said Ahmadinejad. They were his most measured remarks toward America since Obama took office.

    Image: Students wave Iran's national flag
    Raheb Homavandi / Reuters
    Students wave Iran's national flag as others hold pictures of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei  and Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini during a ceremony to mark the anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, in Tehran's Freedom Square on Tuesday.  

    Not satisfied
    For others, the time has come for a change.

    Ebrahim Yazdi, one of the founding fathers of the revolution, said he is disenchanted with the events of the past 30 years. "The authorities are the main players and they don't show any signs of tolerance," he said. "Not only tolerance with us, but [also] tolerance with themselves. I am very much concerned with the future of my country."

    Yazdi served as Iran's first foreign minister after the revolution,, but he resigned from his post in protest on Nov. 6, 1979, two days after the U.S. Embassy was seized. At the time he said that he felt that the embassy takeover was "contrary to the national interests of Iran."

    I asked him if he believed the revolution had taken on a different form from what they initially intended. "We wanted an Islamic republic, we did not want a government of the clergies," he said. "They are two different issues."

    Yazdi added that the current regime is detrimental to Iran's young people. With 70 percent of Iran's population under the age of 30, a huge portion of the population wasn't even born at the time of the revolution.

    "The problem with the present system is not only that it is a politically suppressive regime, but also sociologically they are suppressive," said Yazdi, "And who are the victims of this social suppression: the young boys and girls."

    Iran-Iraq War
    SLIDESHOW: Iran's perilous path

    'What I want today is to be able to enjoy myself'
    And despite the size of the crowds in Freedom Square, some of Iran's young people were up in the mountains north of Tehran taking advantage of the day off and were not exactly celebrating the anniversary of the Islamic revolution.

    "I was too young to remember the revolution, but what I want today is to be able to enjoy myself, like you do in America," said Amir, a student.

    "Today is a public holiday, I just want to escape from the madness of the city come up to the mountains have a walk and a meal," said Milad, another student.

    Others are just hoping for a change. "I don't know if the revolution has achieved all its goals, but what I do know is that I want better prospects," said Javad, a cab driver.

    And with presidential elections only four months away, many are hoping change is around the corner.

    The question on everybody's lips is: Will the reformist former President Mohammad Khatami get elected and have another shot at loosening social restriction and bridging gaps with the international community? Or will Ahmadinejad stay in office and keep the country on its current course?

    Related links: Iran and Iraq: A short look at a long history

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  • 14
    Jan
    2009
    5:12pm, EST

    A ‘new’ U.S. approach to Iran?

    By Ali Arouzi, NBC News Producer

    TEHRAN, Iran – During the past 30 years, the United States has pondered regime change, military action, and containment as policies toward Iran. None have proved effective.

    Now President-elect Barack Obama is expected to try what he calls a "new approach" towards Iran – engagement.

    Don't expect Obama to sip tea with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader who has the final say on all political and state matters, and come away with pledges from Tehran to stop aiding terrorists, abandon its nuclear weapons program or recognize Israel anytime soon.
     
    But what we might see – if the political stars align – is the beginning of considerably lower-level diplomatic engagement, perhaps the establishment of a U.S. diplomatic post in Tehran and some people-to-people, cultural, and sporting exchanges.

    "Now that Bush has gone, this is a great chance for us to make friends with America," said Maryam, a Tehran University student. "I think this is the first real chance in 30 years for the two sides to put aside their differences. It's in everyone's best interests."

    But Farshad, a civil engineer, disagreed. "You know the Americans do not want peace with us. All this talk from Obama about engagement with Iran is an excuse. He wants to look like he has tried to make a deal with us, but really his end goal is to attack us."

    If those two comments offer any indication, dealing with Iran is going to be very tricky.

    A finger in every regional trouble spot

    Iran's theocrats are a crafty and skilled breed: they have mastered the art of cat and mouse games and defied sanctions and international pressure.

    If one looks at the events that have occurred in the region since the attacks of 9/11, including the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, one would think that Iran would be weak and scared. But quite the opposite has occurred: Iran is confident and has established itself as a regional superpower.

    Iran has a finger in every major trouble spot in the region. It counsels Syria, funds Hamas, founded Hezbollah, influences Iraq and threatens Israel; it could even, if it chose, be helpful to U.S. interests in Afghanistan.

    "President Ahmadinejad does not want stability with the United States, he thrives on instability," said Sayed Laylaz, an economist and political analyst. "If relations between the two countries were normal, then he would not have a podium to rant and rave from."

    On the anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran last November, Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, said the problems between the United States and Iran were too deep to be resolved easily. The Iranian leader also indicated that he was not interested in partial resolution of the problems between the two sides.

    With regard to its nuclear program, Iran has made it very clear that it is not willing to make any concessions, arguing that it has a right to develop nuclear power for it what it says are peaceful means.

    Despite strong words from U.S. officials about its nuclear ambitions, Iran's leaders seem to feel confident that an attack is unlikely, because American forces are stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan, global markets are in turmoil and the world does not have the appetite for another war. And should U.S. forces attempt a more targeted strike on the country's nuclear facilities, Iran's leadership believes it can defend itself.

    "In the event of the slightest aggression against Iran, every one of the U.S.'s 32 bases in the region is within range of Iranian missiles," Hojat-Ol-Eslam Mojtaba Zolnour, Khamenei's representative in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, told reporters recently.

    "It is possible that some enemies are considering a plan for a brief attack on Iran and [its] strategic installations," he added. "Iran will not permit such a plan, and in such an event, the entire Iranian nation will defeat the enemies, with one voice and with unity."

    'Not taking any option off the table'


    Sen. Hillary Clinton, Obama's nominee to be secretary of state, addressed the issue of Iran during her Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday.

    In her testimony, Clinton said the U.S. would seek to halt Iran's push for nuclear weapons by using diplomacy, sanctions and coalitions with other countries, which she considered a "new" approach. 

    "We are not taking any option off the table at all, but we will pursue a new, perhaps different approach that will become a cornerstone of what the Obama administration believes is an attitude toward engagement that might bear fruit," she said.

    But when pressed on the issue, Clinton acknowledged that the new administration couldn't predict what the results of attempted engagement with Iran would be.

    "We have no illusions, Mr. Chairman, that even with a new administration looking to try to engage Iran in a way that might influence its behavior, that we can predict the results. But the president-elect is committed to that course and we will pursue it," she said.

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  • 5
    Nov
    2008
    4:05pm, EST

    Obama: An ‘opportunity and a test’ for Iran

    By Ali Arouzi, NBC News Producer

    TEHRAN, Iran – "When I saw the election results this morning on TV I was very jealous of America," said an Iranian student in Tehran, Darius Dashdi.

    "I was jealous of their democratic system and the opportunity that is afforded to each and every citizen regardless of color or religion. I wish we had the same type of opportunities here," he said.

    Despite Dashdi's optimistic view of the United States' election of Barack Obama, the Democratic winner has largely been viewed here as the lesser of two evils.

    Early on Wednesday, prominent Iranian MP Hamid Reza Haji Babai said the Democrat's victory presented an "opportunity and a test," with Iran now "waiting for that change" that Obama based his campaign on.

    "In the past eight years, (President George W.) Bush had created a bad atmosphere against the United States in the world with his militarism and this financial crisis," said Haji Babai.

    "The election of McCain would have worsened this atmosphere," he said.

    Back on the streets of Tehran, housewife Roya Amini said "Obama seems like he is different, but you never know with America what they might do."

    'This will weaken radicals in Iran'


    Meantime, some are hoping to close a chapter in the hostile history between Tehran and Washington and open a new one based on discussions rather than threats.

    ""If Obama delivers his promises (about opening dialogue with Iran), this will weaken radicals in Iran and no-one will buy the radical and extremist slogans anymore," said political analyst Saeed Laylaz, referring to the frequent anti-American remarks of outspoken President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

    The nuclear stand-off could also be resolved through dialogue he said, as "that will bring security."

    However, some saw Obama's election as a threat rather than a chance for improved relations.

    "I think Obama becoming president is dangerous for Iran because I think the Israelis think that he is too soft on Iran and therefore they may take matters into their own hands and attack us," said student Majid Kordi.

    "This will be very bad because I am sure a huge war will erupt in the region."

    What next?


    There are many schools of thought on what will happen next, or what should happen next between the United States and Iran. Some people think that the hard-line faction here will not let relations' blossom because hatred of America is a key component of its ideology.

    Just last week, the highest power in the country, Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said that the country's hatred for the United States runs deep and differences between the two nations go back fifty years and reach beyond a "few political issues."

    Khamenei's comments on state-run television less than a week before the presidential vote appeared to be a signal that the government was unwilling to try to improve ties no matter who won in the United States.

    Comments from some citizens showed great suspicions about the international community and highlighted the hatred the Iranian leader spoke of.

    "There are bigger powers at work than Obama who want to hurt Iran, who don't want to see an independent and successful Iran, but Iran will prevail over our great enemies in America and Israel," said construction worker Ahmad Negabani.

    Whichever way the delicate balance here shifts and whether the reformist or the hard-liners are in power, Iran is unlikely to respond well to pressure as has been demonstrated in the past. However, critics argue that although Iran does not respond well to pressure, it should be given free reign to do whatever it wants.

    "We have to see what happens next," said Maryam Fazili, a teacher.

    "Both countries have hurt one another badly over the course of history and you do not forget these things easily," she said.

    "We need a lot of compromise from both sides, something I don't think we are going to see."

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  • 24
    Oct
    2008
    12:23pm, EDT

    Iranians very focused on U.S. election

    By Ali Arouzi, NBC News Producer

     TEHRAN, Iran – In a country that can be very isolated, people from all walks of life in Iran seem to know the ins and outs of the upcoming U.S. elections. Most are well informed about the candidates and their running mates and almost everyone has an opinion or a theory – some surprising, some far-fetched.

    Some even want to claim Sen. Barack Obama as one of their own – with Persian lineage to boot.

    "Obama has an international background, I understand his background is not totally American, he even has family ties with Iran, I hear Bushehr," said a university professor who asked only to be identified as Max. He was referring to the southwest port town of Bushehr, which coincidentally is the site of Iran's controversial nuclear facility.    

    VIDEO: Iranians express low expectations for the next U.S. president

    Others seem to believe that the hard-line policies of Sen. John McCain may be exactly what are needed to deal with the current Iranian regime. "I think McCain should become president, America needs a strong experienced man to deal with this region," said a student who spoke on the condition of anonymity. 

    Extensive coverage

    It's not surprising that Iranians opinions vary on the election, it has been extensively covered by the Iranian media; most of the daily newspapers and weekly political magazines have been dominated by coverage of the race for the White House.

    There have been tables showing the results of the various polls and translations from a whole host of American newspapers and magazines. The newspapers have also published transcripts (in Persian) of all of the presidential and vice presidential debates, as well as in-depth profiles of the candidates and their running mates.

    One weekly news magazine called "Sharvand" published an article titled "The Calm Obama versus the Fiery McCain." Another article argued that American was not ready for, and would not vote for, a black president.

    The newspaper, "Iran," reported that Obama was ahead in the polls because of the failed policies of President Bush and that it would be a huge surprise for Iran and the rest of the world if Obama were not victorious.

    Maryam Kamali, a secretary at a steel company who has been closely following the election, made parallels between the U.S. election and Iran's presidential election scheduled for next year. "It's funny that the most important issue in the U.S elections is the failing economy and the most important issue in our elections is also going to be the failing economy." 

    Outcome won't change U.S. foreign policy
    Many people we spoke to were very skeptical about the outcome of the election. They didn't think it mattered who became the next president because they believe U.S foreign policy is predetermined in a negative way toward Iran and that America will do anything it needs to in order to keep Israel happy.

    "The American people have no choice in these elections, the decision will be made by a powerful Jewish cartel," said Hamid Nagat, a businessman.

    "If a presidential candidate does not stand behind Israel like a mountain, they will never get voted into office," said Salah Mohamadi, a student in his first year of university. 

    Majid, an accountant who gave only his first name, said that the difference of opinion between Iran and the U.S. over Israel was really at the heart of the differences between the two countries. "It does not matter if it's McCain or Obama because whoever becomes president, their first priority is going to be Israel – and we don't recognize Israel as a country, so we will always be at odds," he said.

    Unlikely endorsement
    But when I asked a very nationalistic right-wing journalist who he wanted to become president, he surprised me by saying he favored McCain. He explained that his viewpoint was based on fears about Iran's national security. "If McCain became president and wanted to attack Iran, the international community would not stand behind him, but if Obama became president and wanted to attack Iran, the international community would stand behind him," he said, but asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

    Iran's political circles are also watching closely. A government official who spoke to me on condition of anonymity said, "Of course we want Obama to become president, but we are also being very careful not to endorse him – as an Iranian endorsement might have an adverse effect on his campaign."

    Regardless, whoever becomes the next U.S. president will have a profound effect on Iran.

    Click here for complete coverage of Decision '08

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