Anthony Shadid, the New York Times correspondent who died in Syria on Thursday, was better than the rest of us.  He wasn’t the fastest to a story, or the biggest daredevil or the most technical with a satellite phone.  Sure, he was good at all those things.  But he was absolutely brilliant at something else.  Shadid could hear the story.

He could feel it in the tips of his fingers.  He could do what may be impossible.  He could make war subtle.

This is what I mean.  During the often overlooked, ferociously dangerous 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, reporters in southern Lebanon generally rushed to the bombing sites.  The faster we got there, the fresher and more compelling our stories and pictures would be.  And there were incredibility compelling stories.  In the first three weeks of the conflict, Israel dropped as much tonnage of explosives on southern Lebanon as it used in the 1973 Mideast war.

NYT: Two-time Pulitzer Prize-winner Anthony Shadid dies in Syria

Hezbollah fired rockets indiscriminately into Israeli cities, driving thousands into shelters.  We rushed and ran and sometimes even dodged and the world watched and read.  Anthony covered it differently.  He’d go out in the morning and find some tiny village, tucked away on a hillside, where none of us thought to go.  He’d find his story in the details, not the fireballs.  It takes a sensitive ear to do that.  War is a loud place, full of emotions, explosions, gore, fatigue, pity, outrage and rage.  But Anthony managed to pick out the quiet notes, and hear the melody playing sotto voce under the cacophony.

I say "us" because there is an "us" in the business, which is really more of a life than a career.  There is a small – tragically, dwindling – brotherhood and sisterhood of reporters who cover conflict, specifically conflict in the Middle East.  Anthony was one of our founding members.  When I first moved to Cairo in 1996, the first person I was told to look up was Anthony.  “He’s got a good feeling of what’s going on over there,” I was well advised.  Anthony and I were together in Baghdad during the 2003 US bombing.  Baghdad for all of 'us' was a defining period, an extended nightmare of car bombings, flag ceremonies, kidnappings and military acronyms.  I last saw Anthony a few months ago.  He looked great.  He was in a good place.

He was relaxed and happy.  We were at the airport in Tunisia.  We’d just covered a year of the Arab Spring.  It was different from all those years in Baghdad.  It was interesting.  It was complicated.  It was big history.  It needed a subtle ear.  It was perfect for Anthony.

It was his time.  I am so sorry his time was cut short.  I’ll miss his voice.  I’ll miss his compassion.  There’s so much more to reporting than just bullets, bombs, rebels and ballots, and nobody knew that more than Anthony.  Rest in peace, brother.

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Hadi Mizban / AP

Children play next to Shiite posters and flags in the primarily Shiite neighborhood of Hurriyah in north Baghdad on Nov. 15, 2011. The number of Iraqi neighborhoods in which members of the two Muslim sects live side-by-side and intermarry has dwindled.

ANALYSIS
 
BAGHDAD – It was a cold night in Baghdad. I was standing on the roof of Saddam’s information ministry listening to a televised speech by President George W. Bush. He gave Saddam Hussein and his sons 48 hours to leave, or else.

I remember the chills that went down my legs, as if I was bracing myself for an impact. A big war was coming. The American military machine had risen and was ready. 

This past Monday, on another cold night in Baghdad, I listened as President Barack Obama said the war is ending. Troops are leaving. This war is wrapping up. I had those chills again, but on this night, it was just from the cold.  

So much has changed since the war began. So many U.S. troops have made this the mission of their lives. Nearly 4,500 of them died in a war launched to find weapons of mass destruction that didn’t exist and to topple a dictator who had nothing to do with 9/11 or Osama Bin Laden, even though that’s how it was sold. 

Saddam was brutal. He had no regard for the lives of his people. He buried his enemies in mass graves. Stalin was his hero. Saddam’s son, Uday Hussein, was evil, psychotic and, by many accounts, a rapist. But Iraqis have lived through absolute hell during the war – an estimated 150,000 of them have died, mostly at the hands of other Iraqis, according to some Iraqi government estimates. 

Regardless of President Bush’s intent in waging this war, what it wound up doing is replacing a dictator with a Shiite-run state that is close to Iran. This could not have been the plan.
 
Welcome to Shia-stan.

Shiite revenge
On April 9, 2003, as a few hundred Iraqis pulled down a statue of Saddam Hussein, the crowds weren’t cheering for America. They were shouting the name al-Sadr, a Shiite cleric killed by Saddam. Pulling down Saddam’s statue was vengeance for al-Sadr’s murder. It was Shiite revenge. Saddam was a Sunni. Sunnis are a minority in Iraq, yet they had ruled the country for over a thousand years. 
 
When Saddam was hanged in December 2006, one of his executioners yelled the name “Muqtada,” in his ear moments before the dictator dropped through a trap door and a noose stretched his neck.  Muqtada is al-Sadr’s son. He is a radical anti-American Shiite cleric. Saddam’s execution – carried out on the day Sunnis were celebrating one of the year’s most important holidays – was more Shiite revenge.
 
When Iraq held its first elections, Shiite political parties won. 

Now, as American troops leave Iraq after almost nine years of patrols, IEDs and countless meetings with tribal elders, it is abundantly clear that the Shiites have won this country.
 
Haifa Street in Baghdad has long been a Sunni stronghold. It was once considered the most dangerous street in the world. Snipers from al-Qaida in Iraq – a Sunni militant group – would fire on U.S. troops from Haifa Street’s tall buildings during the height of sectarian violence in 2006- 2007. Al-Qaida’s all black flag hung from some of the windows. 

A few days ago, I was back on Haifa Street to meet officials at the High Council for Tourism. The black al-Qaida flags are gone. Instead I saw dozens of pictures of Muqtada al-Sadr and green Shiite flags. Outside the building, there were more Shiite flags and pictures of the Shiite martyr Hussein. 

I was at the tourism office to find out who is coming to Iraq and what they are coming to see.

It’s an especially holy month for Shiites, the month that marks Hussein's martyrdom in the 7th century. The country does have ancient sites, including Babylon and the Ziggurat of Ur – so perhaps they are a lure for tourists? But more tourists are coming to visit Iraq's Shiite religious sites.

The tourism official is like most government officials in Baghdad these days.  He’s a religious Shiite from one of the many Shiite political parties. He served our TV crew sweet tea in small hourglass shaped cups. 

Ahmad Al-Rubaye / AFP - Getty Images

Iraqi Muslim Shiites hit themselves with swords during Ashura rituals in Baghdad's Sadr City on Dec. 6, 2011. Ashura mourns the death of Imam Hussein, a grandson of the Prophet Mohammed.

When I looked closely, I noticed three words were engraved on the cups: Allah, Mohammed and Ali. Including the name Ali, Mohammed’s son-in-law, has only one meaning. Ali is the patron of all Shiites. These were Shiite cups.  Even the tea at the tourism authority was being served in Shiite cups. 

Several Sunnis at the tourism authority have recently been fired, they believe because they are Sunnis. Iraqi Shiites are clearly not shy about showing off their newfound power.
 
I asked the official who is visiting Iraq these days. Under Saddam, it was nearly impossible to travel to Iraq. And Iraqis, if they were allowed to leave, had to drive to Syria or Jordan to catch most international flights. Baghdad simply wasn’t connected to the world. 

Now there are direct flights here from Turkey, Sweden, Austria, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, among other countries. There are no direct flights to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, both Sunni states that have been critical of Iraq’s Shiite government. There are no direct flights to the United States.  But there are now on many days more than a dozen flights to Iran. 

Officials at the tourism authority told me that they registered more than 1.5 million Iranian visitors to Iraq in 2010, up 25 percent from the year before. This year they expect the figure to rise to 1.75 million. The official stressed that the tourism authority only registers Iranians coming to Iraq in organized tour groups, but many more Iranians come on their own.

Iranians are issued visas when they arrive at Baghdad International Airport. They can also land at the new international airport in the Holy Shiite city of Najaf and quickly get a visa on site. American citizens have to apply for visas in advance and they usually take three weeks to process.
 
When I landed at the airport in Baghdad on this visit, I had to wait about 15 minutes while my visa was verified. It’s a standard procedure. For years, I’ve seen this arrival hall packed with the oddest cluster of misfits imaginable. There were beefy American contractors in baseball caps, cargo pants and with badges around their necks. I’ve seen Americans arriving in Baghdad with big silver belt buckles and cowboy hats, too.  There were often British security contractors with tight t-shirts and Oakley sunglasses perched on top of gelled crew cuts. There were also small armies of sub-Saharan Africans hired to man American checkpoints and guide bomb-sniffing dogs.  And there were journalists with leather satchels, checkered scarves and long hair (usually the photographers).  

This time, nearly every person in the arrival hall was from Iran.  From the badges hanging around their necks, it was clear they were on tours to visit Iraq’s holy Shiite shrines in Najaf, Karbala, Baghdad and Samaraa.  The Iranian tour guides wore fedora hats.
 
So Iranians are coming in huge numbers. It doesn’t mean that Iran is taking over. Iran is, after all, Iraq’s neighbor, and Iraq can use the tourist dollars. But it certainly does show the direction Iraq is leaning and with whom Iraqis are connecting.

Related link: A growing Iranian threat, in wake of U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq this month

Green Shiite flag city
For most of the nearly six years I lived and worked in Iraq, our bureau was in the Jadiriya neighborhood. It is a relatively upscale part of Baghdad with clothing stores, a supermarket and a decent ice cream parlor. There were many bombings in Jadiriya, but compared to other areas, Jadiriya was relatively peaceful. Jadiriya was always a Shiite neighborhood, but there were Sunnis and Christians mixed in too.  Now the Sunnis and Christians are invisible. These days, there are more green Shiite flags in Jadiriya than I’ve ever seen.
 
About 65 percent of Iraqis are Shiite. If people want to express their religion, it is certainly their right. Americans couldn’t prevent it even if they wanted to.  But in Iraq, hanging flags isn’t a sign of religious celebration. It is a way to mark territory. It is a way to show dominance, like Marines landing on a beach and raising a flag to say: this is mine.
 
South of Jadiriya is the neighborhood of Dora.  Dora has long been a Sunni area, with some Shiites and Christians. The Christians and Shiites have now mostly moved out. They were driven away by al-Qaida in Iraq or opportunists who used the terrorist group to scare away their neighbors so they could buy their houses on the cheap.  If you were a Sunni in a neighborhood like Dora and you wanted your neighbor’s house, and your neighbor happened to be a Shiite or a Christian, all you had to do was slip a threatening note under his door and sign it “al-Qaida in
Iraq.”  The neighbor would usually accept any price for the house that was offered. 

Ali Abbas / EPA

Iraqi actors perform the epic of Imam Hussein, as part of the Ashura festivals in Baghdad, Iraq, on Dec. 6, 2011. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Shiites visited the holy city of Kerbala throughout the Ashura week to mark the death of Imam Hussein, grandson of Prophet Mohammad.

War does ugly things to people. Greed and hate and cynicism bubble up to the surface.  I drove past Dora the other day.  I noticed a new set of houses being built nearby. The houses are still under construction, but on each one was a green Shiite flag and a picture of the Shiite Martyr Hussein. Some Shiite developers have obviously decided to encroach on Dora. They’re moving in. It’s a Shiite settlement. 
 
As I drove on from Dora, I kept thinking, sectarian violence is going to blow up in Iraq again. Many Sunnis feel they have no future in the country. 

Related link: Iraqi voices weigh in on the U.S. withdrawal

Cozy relationship will have U.S. national security consequences
But, cynically, does anyone outside of Iraq care anymore? My friends in the United States have long stopped asking me about Iraq. They don’t want to hear about it.

Friends used to like it when I would draw maps on cocktail napkins to show how Sunnis and Shiites are divided and how Iran moves in supplies to help Shiite militias. Now no one wants to see my maps. Most people seem to think if Iraqis want to kill each other, it’s their problem. 
 
Aside from the cost of this war in blood and money to the United States, a Shiite-led, Iran-friendly Iraq could have major consequences for American national security. 

Saddam Hussein was a secular Sunni dictator. He despised Iran. Saddam fought a war with Iran in the 1980s in which each side lost a half million men. Saddam let the world think he had nuclear weapons to keep Iran in check.

How times have changed. Iran now has both a close ally in Iraq and a key trading partner. Just look at the taxis in Iraq, which used to be old Volkswagen Passats manufactured in Brazil. Now, many of the yellow taxis choking Baghdad with traffic are boxy Iranian-made Saipas.  Iran is building an oil pipeline to Iraq, too.

The United States wants to punish Iran economically using sanctions so it abandons its nuclear program. But the United States has created economic opportunities for Iran in Iraq, and that could help undermine the sanctions.

Iraq has a long 900 mile border with Iran, and many Iraqi border guards are either corrupt or are sympathetic to Iran. That’s proven every day by the illegal drugs smuggled across the Iran-Iraq border, according to the International Narcotics Control Board, the independent monitoring body associated with the United Nations. If drugs can go across, so can materials banned under the sanctions. 

America’s efforts to strangle Iran with sanctions could end up being undermined by the very nation the United States went to such great efforts to create. 
 
Iraq is not an Iranian pawn. It is an independent and patriotic country. And some day, due to all its oil, it may be a very rich country, as well. The United States, despite the huge cost of this war can and probably will make money here eventually. Still, history may not be kind to this project. 

Iraq has become a Shiite-led state that feels a certain affinity to Iran, its giant Shiite neighbor. It is hard to imagine any of this was part of the plan when President Bush gave Saddam Hussein 48 hours to leave on that cold night in Baghdad.
 
Richard Engel, NBC News Chief Correspondent, has covered Iraq since the initial U.S. invasion in March 2003. He is the author of two books on Iraq: "A Fist in the Hornet's Nest" and "War Journal: My Five Years in Iraq."

See more of his reporting on the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq on the Nightly News with Brian Williams Wednesday.

Related link: Photo Blog: Iraqi voices: Patchwork electrical grid a symbol of country's disconnects

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Ahmed Wali Karzai, the provincial council chairman for Kandahar and President Hamid Karzai's half brother, prepares to vote in the presidential elections in this Aug. 20, 2009 file photo.

By Richard Engel, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent 
 
CAIRO – Ahmed Wali Karzai did not take his security lightly. As a brother of Afghan President Hamid Karzai and one of the most powerful men in Afghanistan, only a few people were able to get close to him, and even fewer would have been able to carry out Tuesday’s assassination. It was a well-planned attack. It was an act of betrayal.

According to Afghan sources, the killer, Sardar Mohammad, was a member of Karzai’s extended family clan, the Popalzai. He’d worked in security for the Karzai family for more than a decade and was once a personal bodyguard for another one of Karzai’s brothers. 

On Tuesday morning Mohammad came to Ahmed Wali Karzai’s home in Kandahar – which doubles as an office – ready to kill.

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Trusted ally
Mohammad was more than a bodyguard for Ahmed Wali Karzai, often referred to by his initials AWK. Mohammad was one of AWK’s most trusted security lieutenants. Mohammad helped arrange security, set up checkpoint in Kandahar and move personnel. He was not a close protection man, not a bouncer who kept crowds away, but a trusted midlevel security coordinator with years of experience and family ties. At least two of Mohammad’s family members are part of President Hamid Karzai’s own Presidential Protection Service, similar to the Afghan Secret Service. 

According to Afghan sources, this long-standing relationship was critical to the assassination. Tuesday morning, AWK was in a meeting in his home with Afghan elders. AWK held similar meetings almost every day.  Afghan sources say that Mohammad entered the meeting. Mohammad said he had an urgent matter that he needed to discuss with AWK.

The implication was that it was a personal issue that couldn’t be discussed in front of the others in the room. Mohammad said he needed to talk to AWK for “just two minutes” and asked if AWK could excuse himself so they could talk. Very few people would have been able to walk into a meeting with AWK, interrupt it, and ask him to break away for a few minutes.  Only a trusted few had that kind of clout. Mohammad was one of them. 

Mohammad was also carrying a file in his hands.  The assassin’s gun was apparently hidden in or behind the file. AWK excused himself from his meeting.  The two men walked into a nearby room. Once inside, Mohammad pulled out his gun and shot AWK in the head and chest. The shot to the head killed him. There may have also been a third shot, but it has yet to be confirmed. After the shots were heard, security guards killed the assassin. Mohammad couldn’t have hoped to escape.  

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In this 2010 photo Afghan President Hamid Karzai is met by his half brother Ahmad Wali Karzai, left, in Argandab district of Kandahar province.

'Good friend' kills Afghan president's half-brother
 
Why was he killed?
So why did Mohammad do it? The motive is perhaps the biggest mystery. 

The Taliban have claimed responsibility and say they spent a long time – perhaps years – preparing Mohammad for the mission. It is possible. The Taliban certainly had an interest in killing him.

AWK was a main powerbroker in Kandahar.  He worked with the Americans.  He’d been linked to the drug trade. He’d been paid by the CIA. From the Taliban’s perspective, AWK was a rival and a legitimate target. His death would only make them stronger.

The killing also, according to Afghan officials, may help Pakistan. For several years, Pakistan, President Hamid Karzai and the Taliban have been involved in peace talks to devise a power-sharing agreement.  The United States has followed the talks closely, at times facilitating the secretive peace process.  AWK was a key player in the talks.  He was considered a tough and effective negotiator. There was a recent round of talks in the United Arab Emirates. 

By killing AWK, the Taliban and Pakistan’s position in the negotiations has become stronger. Just like in a business deal, if one negotiator is especially strong, killing him helps the other parties. 

But Afghan sources say Mohammad may have also been motivated by family issues or personal vendettas. It will no doubt take a long time to piece it all together.  AWK had many enemies. One Afghan source said there could have been a combination of motivations, but that ultimately the Taliban benefits because it gains power by removing a rival.

By Richard Engel, NBC News Chief Foreign Correspondent

NEW YORK – As a foreign correspondent for NBC News, I haven’t spent much time in the United States during the last decade. I return only occasionally to check in with colleagues, visit family, or, this last time, to research a documentary for MSNBC.

The documentary, still in the works, is about the Global War on Terrorism, and what it has done to our military, economy and American society in general. Perhaps because the subject was on my mind, I found a recent travel experience especially meaningful. 
 
Through my work I travel to some of the busiest airports in high-risk areas. Just this year I have been in Egypt, Tunisia, Iran, Bahrain, Libya, France, Italy and many other countries. But I have yet to feel so angry, so embarrassed or so scrutinized as I did going through airport security for a flight from Los Angeles International Airport to New York’s JFK while visiting home. 

I’d never been through one of the machines that takes somewhat-but-not-that-blurred naked images in the United States before. I’d only been in one in Iraq.

In Baghdad, I had to go through an earlier model of the machine before I was allowed to enter a courtroom for the trial of Saddam Hussein. That seemed reasonable at the time. There were millions of Iraqis who wanted to kill Saddam, or to at least disrupt his trial. The blurred-naked-photo-machine didn’t bother me then.

It did bother me as I stood with my feet in outlines on the floor and my hands over my head, palms pressed together in Los Angeles. It bothered me even more as I watched a girl who couldn’t have been more than 7 years old forced to assume the same undignified position. I watched her mother help the girl, showing her how to raise her hands in the correct position. 

I asked to file a complaint. The TSA agents were very polite. They called over a supervisor who gave me a business card with an online address where I could register my complaint.
 
“There are reasons why we do this that you may not understand,” the TSA agent told me as she handed me the card.
 
I would disagree with her on that. I am fully aware of the al-Qaida and terrorist risk. The body-scanning machines were deployed in America after the so-called underwear bomber tried to blow up a plane over Detroit on Christmas day in 2009.  I went to Yemen to interview the bomber’s roommates and teachers.  I have spent a great deal of time focusing on issues of national security and terrorism. I have interviewed hundreds of security and terrorism expects from law enforcement agencies, the military and the CIA.
 
I spoke to another TSA supervisor. I told him that his staff had been exceptionally polite, but that I felt it was my duty as a citizen to register a complaint. I said we have to take back rights that are being taken from us in the name of security.
 
The supervisor happened to recognize me from television.
 
“Don’t you travel to dangerous places all the time? How can this bother you? Where you go, people are shooting at you,” he said.
 
“Yes, but this is what the terrorists wanted. They want us to live in fear,” I said.
 
The supervisor who recognized me was wearing a “Remember 9-11” pin on his dark blazer.
 
“This is why Americans need to take back what we’re losing,” I told him, pointing to his pin. He seemed unconvinced and suggested I file a complaint.
 
I’ve watched American troops fight, and sometimes die, to drive the Taliban and al-Qaida from Afghanistan, and to secure free elections in Iraq. They have been fighting for other people to be free. I was horrified to see that despite their sacrifices we’d let ourselves become a nation that appears to be driven by fear.
 
I was in the subway in New York a few days before traveling to Los Angeles. I grew up in New York. I always read the advertisements on the subways – there's not much else to look at. Generally, they're for acne treatment or public service announcements.

This time, one of the advertisements caught my eye. It was for quick, inexpensive associate degrees. One of the majors advertised was in accounting, which has long been popular. There always seems to be a need for accountants. The other major was in "homeland security." Standing there, looking up at the ad as I jostled in the subway car, I realized what a growth industry security has become in the United States.
 
To be clear, I fully support effective and robust security measures and understand why they can be necessary. I loathe terrorists who have killed thousands of innocent civilians over the past 10 years, including some of my friends and colleagues from New York to Afghanistan to Iraq. But at the airport, watching a 7-year-old girl go through a full body scan in public – just so she could fly out of the city of Los Angeles – made me wonder how much we have lost. 
 

B MATHUR / Reuters

Egypt's former President Hosni Mubarak and his wife Suzanne attend his ceremonial reception at the presidential palace in New Delhi in this November 18, 2008 file photo.

Richard Engel, NBC News’ Chief foreign correspondent

CAIRO – Former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak is likely now wondering why he didn’t leave Egypt when he had the chance. 
 
Now, in an attempt to avoid jail time, Mubarak is expected to make a statement apologizing to the Egyptian people and announcing that he will return money and property to the Egyptian government, according to local media reports.
 
Egyptians claim that Mubarak illegally acquired billions of dollars in kickbacks while serving as Egypt’s president from 1981 until this spring’s uprising.  It is unclear how much money or which assets Mubarak will return.  

The former strongman, who has never acknowledged any wrongdoing, is now apparently being advised by a lawyer to adopt a more humble, conciliatory tone.  It would be a stark contrast to his somewhat dismissive statements before stepping down from office, which were perceived by many Egyptians to be patronizing and even threatening.  Mubarak has reportedly spoken to his lawyer at least three times in the past 24 hours, according to witnesses at the hospital where he is being held.
 
Mubarak’s statement, which could be an audio recording or just a written statement from his lawyer, may be broadcast on Egyptian state television.  It could be released as early as Tuesday night.
 
The longtime U.S. ally is currently in a hospital in Sharm el-Sheikh, awaiting a possible transfer to a military hospital in Cairo.  His two sons are in prison pending their trial for corruption.
 
The return of money diverted to the Mubarak has been one of Egyptian protesters’ most consistent demands. Mubarak’s wife, Suzanne, also facing jail time for corruption, has already said she will return about $3 million and a luxury villa in Cairo’s tony Heliopolis district.  She has been released from custody, but is still under investigation.
 
There are clauses in Egyptian laws that can significantly reduce, or even wipe away, corruption charges if the money is recovered. Even if Mubarak is exonerated from corruption charges, however, he still faces accusations of ordering a deadly crackdown on demonstrators during the Egyptian uprising.