Denis Sinyakov / Reuters

Opposition leader Vladimir Ryzhkov speaks during a protest demanding fair elections in central Moscow on March 5, 2012.

MOSCOW – Vladimir Ryzhkov’s body language said it all. 

The veteran Russian opposition leader was up on stage during the first mass  protest after Vladimir Putin’s big presidential election win. And he looked like a man on auto-pilot as he introduced one speaker after another, half-heartedly peppering his remarks with calls for “taking power back” and “Russia without Putin.”

A month earlier, Ryzhkov had seemed as energized as Jumpin’ Jack Flash as he barked down his microphone in minus-10 degree Fahrenheit weather and looked out on a sea of humanity chanting for a “New Russia.” But on this much warmer night in the modest Pushkin Square in central Moscow, Ryzhkov’s spirit seemed to freeze over as he gazed on a crowd a fraction of the size of the earlier one. Surrounded by phalanxes of riot police, the protest seemed much smaller than the police estimate of 14,000.

“I’m optimistic and pessimistic,” he told me as the two-hour rally drew to a close.

“If Putin blocks our protests, we will come back in the hundreds of thousands [to commit acts of] civil disobedience.”

Did he think there would be violence? “Yes – I’m afraid there’s no other way,” he said, looking dejected.

Level playing field
This week has been a moment of truth for the mostly middle-class activists who say they want nothing more than what most of us in the West take for granted: a civil society and a level political playing field. The re-election of Putin came with many claims of election fraud from both domestic and foreign observers.

Dmitry Astakhov / AFP - Getty Images

Russia's outgoing President Dmitry Medvedev, right, and President-elect Vladimir Putin, left, attend a training session as they visit the luging sport center at the alpine ski resort in Krasnaya Polyana, some 30 miles from Sochi, the site of the 2014 Winter Olympics, on Friday.

Sergei Strokan, a foreign affairs writer for the popular Kommersant daily newspaper, seemed to put it best. “The big question for the Russian opposition is whether there is life after March 4.”

As we sipped coffees in the up-market Moscow bistro where many say the protest movement was born, I asked Strokan what the protesters could possibly do next. After all, according to the final tally, Putin won almost 64 percent of the vote. Even factoring in all of the alleged cheating, he still would have garnered a majority of ballots.

“Before they do anything truly effective,” Strokan replied, “they must first admit one simple fact: That Vladimir Putin still enjoys the support of the vast majority of Russians.”   

Yevgeny Tinchenko, a 25-year-old, unemployed Russian from Siberia, summed up the reasons behind that support. I met him in Zagorsk, about 50 miles outside of Moscow, where he was looking for a job in a traditionally pro-Putin religious center.

“Putin inspires trust as a person,” Tinchenko told me. “I simply like him. When I see him on TV I think things will improve if he is running the country.” But Tinchenko went on to say that he only saw Putin on state-run TV, and knew next to nothing about the other candidates.

There no doubt Putin used all of the ideological and propaganda weapons at his disposal to exploit those feelings  and win big, in the first round of the vote. Now he needs to fulfill the almost $170 billion in campaign promises he made over the past month – from pay raises for school teachers to more housing for war veterans. 

Putin power plays
Meanwhile, from his renewed position of strength, Putin is doing everything he can to diminish the opposition’s authority, in part by proffering a whole tree of olive branches.

For instance, the Kremlin called on Russia’s chief prosecutor to review the charges against Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oil oligarch and Putin arch-enemy, imprisoned since 2003 because he dared challenge Putin’s authority. This is seen as a sign they may be softened or dropped. 

It’s an example of how, firmly back in the driver’s seat, Putin can maneuver in a chess game he arguably plays better than anyone (except, perhaps, former world champion – and opposition leader – Gary Kasparov).

In another deft Putin move, he reached out to a rival candidate, billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov, after the latter said the election results were “unfair.” Putin called Prokhorov and asked him if he’d accept a cabinet post in the new government. (It’s unlikely, though, that Prokhorov, who came in a strong third in the election, will accept the offer.)

The moves underscore Putin’s clever attempt to peel away the center of the protest movement.

‘Two Russias’
But, unfortunately for Putin, this opposition goes much deeper than a clutch of hard-core extremists. It’s a whole emerging Russian middle-class – millions of people with money and property – but no voice. 

Mikhail Metzel / AP

Russian police officers block a street near the site of a protest in downtown Moscow, Russia on Monday.

“We are on the verge of losing stability for the single reason that society has already split,” said Strokan. “The crack is growing wider and wider, and what we see now is not one Russia, but two Russias. And neither listens to the other.”

Kremlin watchers like Strokan worry about a collision course that Putin and the protesters seem to be headed on. The president-elect can crack down on what he sees as a minority of U.S. stooges, but he doesn’t have any ideas about how to reconcile the two sides.

The protesters, meanwhile, know what they don’t want – and that’s another six years of Putin. But they, too, lack any effective strategy to pressure Putin to either reform the system, or step down.

It’s all shaping up into a perfect storm of long-term trouble for Russia. And that’s terrible news for America and the world.

Jim Maceda is an NBC News foreign correspondent based in London who has covered Russia and the former Soviet Union extensively.

Russians head to the polls on Sunday to vote in presidential elections most expect Vladimir Putin to win handily. If Putin wins, he was previously president from 2000-2008, he will return to the Kremlin after a four-year stint as prime minister. But, support for Putin’s return is not universal – a vocal opposition has been protesting the election for months.

NBC’s Jim Maceda, who has covered Russia since the days of the Soviet Union, is in Moscow following the elections. He answered reader questions about the elections, Putin’s hold on power, the opposition, etc.

Please replay the chat below.

Related links: Could Vladimir Putin be in power until 2024? 10 key questions about Russia's elections
Anti-Putin activists pay high price, but refuse to back down
U.S. Ambassador Michael McFaul, a laid-back Yankee in trouble in Putin's court
Anti-Putin protesters: Coping with bitter cold and big questions

Reuters

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Communist party leader Gennady Zyuganov, tycoon and independent candidate Mikhail Prokhorov, Nationalist Liberal Democratic Party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky and A Just Russia party leader Sergey Mironov will battle for the country's presidency on Sunday.

More than 100 million Russians will go to the polls on Sunday to elect a president who will be in office for the next six years. Msnbc.com's Alastair Jamieson examines the potential outcomes -- and what's at stake.

What do the polls suggest will happen?

Most polls indicate it will be an outright victory for Vladimir Putin, the current prime minister and former president who has made a deal with his ally Dmitry Medvedev, the former prime minister and current president. Despite initial public outrage over their job swap, Putin is consistently polling at around 50 per cent – well ahead of the fragmented opposition.

And even if voters do not endorse Putin, his victory is likely to be assured with the help of regional officials loyal to his United Russia party. Having extended the presidential term of office from four to six years, Putin would remain in charge until 2018 – or 2024, if he won a second term. By then, Putin would have chalked up 24 years in power out of the 33 years since the collapse of Communism thanks to his previous terms as president and prime minister.

If the outcome is such a certainty, why should the U.S. and other Western countries care?

Experts agree the U.S. will find Russia harder to deal with on Putin’s return. On Wednesday, British think tank Chatham House warned that “Russia’s stability is at increased risk” due to Putin's determination to stay in power. “The overriding objective of Vladimir Putin and his team is to preserve the narrow and personalized ruling system that they have built over the past 12 years,” it said in a report. “Real change, necessarily involving accountability and devolution of power, would disrupt the system. But without real change, Russia cannot develop as effectively as it could, and the Putin system is vulnerable to shock.”

PhotoBlog from Dec. 2011: Russians vote in election test for Putin

Opposition leaders believe Russia at a crossroads in this election, according to NBC News correspondent Jim Maceda.

“The choice is stark: six, perhaps 12, more years of an authoritative regime that is belligerent to critics ... and which sees the U.S. and its allies as Cold War rivals -- or a new, more democratic Russia that respects its neighbors and no longer snubs the West,” he said.

“The feeling is that a President Putin will instinctively shrink from, rather than encourage, co-operation with the West on a range of issues including Iran and Syria, so there’s a lot at stake for the U.S. in this election," added Maceda, who has reported on the country since the days of the Soviet Union.

Although Putin enjoys strong domestic popularity, especially in rural Russia, dissatisfaction with his seemingly invincible regime has resulted in unprecedented public protests, with thousands joining recent marches in central Moscow that would have been unthinkable only a few months ago.

What happens if Putin doesn't do as well as the polls suggest? 

If no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the total votes cast, a second round run-off between the top two contenders will be held within 15 days, according to the country's electoral rules.

Russians rally for Putin -- and 2 days off work

Who are the opposition?

Putin’s United Russia is opposed by long-standing Communist rival Gennady Zyuganov and Sergey Mironov of A Just Russia. Two other candidates will liven up the contest. The first is Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party candidate who once suggested retaking Alaska from the U.S. His populist remarks have repeatedly landed him in trouble. The second is Mikhail Prokhorov, the 6’ 9” international playboy who is the multi-billionaire owner of the New Jersey Nets and business partner of rap star Jay-Z.

Meet the NBA tycoon who could be president of Russia

Eleven other candidates were summarily rejected by Russia’s Central Elections Committee as ineligible for reasons ranging from paperwork errors to not having the necessary two million verifiable signatures of support.

Is Prokhorov wasting his time?

“On paper, the ‘billionaire bachelor’ should probably pack it in and focus on his day job and the back half of the NBA season,” said Maceda. “But guess who is the only candidate surging in the polls? Prokhorov was hovering around one per cent when he launched his campaign in December, now he’s scraping 10 per cent.”

Could his pro-business platform resonate with Russians sick of endemic corruption and bribery?  “He is learning to connect with ordinary Russians,” said Maceda. “His performance of a Russian rap tune has gone viral on the web and, who knows, maybe if this goes into a second round and enough voters who want neither Putin not Zyuganov rally round the new face, anything could happen.”

But would communists really switch support from Zyuganov to back the world’s 32nd richest man in the event of a second round? “There is no evidence that suggests that is likely,” said Professor Richard Rose, director of the Centre for the Study of Public Policy at Glasgow'sUniversity of Strathclyde and co-author of the "Popular Support for an Undemocratic Regime."

Can the results be trusted anyway?

“Vote fraud was widespread in December’s parliamentary elections and it is likely to be a factor again,” said James Nixey, an expert on Russia with Chatham House and a co-author of Wednesday’s report.  “It is likely a Putin victory will be solidified through fraud before and after, rather than on polling day itself.”

A Wall Street Journal analysis of December’s Duma election results showed United Russia party captured a high share of voters in districts where turnout was well above the national average, suggesting ballot-stuffing.

But although the issue has angered many voters, Russians seem resigned to the problem. “Russians are not particularly concerned with the process,” said Rose. “They do not view the elections in the same way an independent observer might.”

What issues have featured in the campaign?

“Wages and economic prosperity are what matter most,” said Nixey. “There has also been a patriotic narrative from Putin, which strikes a chord with voters.”

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, there were wider questions about what sort of society could be created and how it should be structured. “Now, most educated professionals spend their time bogged down in how to make schools and hospitals work for the best,” said Rose, adding that there was not widespread demand for political upheaval.

Putin succeeded in imposing some kind of order in the post-Soviet Russia he inherited from the unpredictable Boris Yeltsin. He won a power struggle with the country’s new super-rich oligarchs -- tackling them with the ruthlessness learned during his time working for the KGB -- and used media stunts such as bare-chested horseback riding in order to maintain his appeal to ordinary Russians.

Given Putin’s poll lead,  the opposition is not focused on whether Putin wins, but how. “This election is about the first round,” said Maceda. “If other candidates do better than expected and Putin is forced into a second round, the opposition will see it as a major victory and the beginning of the end for Putin.”

But a decisive, unchallenged victory for Putin could see the opposition neutered until the next election cycle in six years’ time, he added.

So what, if anything, might change?

Putin has pledged more than $160 billion in campaign promises, Maceda said, so some Russians will reap the benefits of his determination to stay in office.

Further protests could also draw concessions, particularly to the country’s frustrated middle classes. “The very fact that there have been protests shows that there is the sense of an ending around Putin’s regime, that it is aware of its own mortality,” said Nixey.

However, there is no wider expectation of reform. Data from the country’s Levada Center polling organization shows four out of five Russians don’t believe elections make any difference to national affairs.

A laidback Yankee in trouble in Putin's court

Is social media playing a role?

As in the Arab Spring, protesters have used Facebook, Twitter and YouTube to get their message across. In December, video footage and pictures that appeared to show election officials rigging ballots in favor of United Russia were widely shared online, sparking a furious backlash against Medvedev.

The president -- a keen user of social media with 759,000 Twitter followers of his Russian language account and 144,000 in English -- saw thousands of negative comments posted on his official Facebook page by internet users accusing him of burying the issue of election fraud by holding an internal inquiry.

Meanwhile, Russia’s independent elections monitor, Golos, has created an interactive map for voters to upload video and photographs of any election violations on Sunday directly from their mobile phones. The organization, funded largely by Western governments, has been targeted by a documentary on state-controlled television accusing it of serving American interests, according to a New York Times report.

Plot to kill Putin foiled, pro-government TV channel reports

Will there be violence?

“With security forces being full of young guys carrying machine guns, there is always the fear that these protests could turn nasty,” said Nixey, whose report suggests a "next wave of protest in the Soviet-era provincial cities, fuelled by social and economic discontent, is inevitable" However, he added: “If I had to predict whether there would be serious public disorder I would guess not. The country is generally more secure than those caught up in the Arab Spring.”

Rose added: “The fragmented opposition would first need to rally around one particular issue, and then use that to create some kind of significant embarrassment for Putin. That doesn’t appear a realistic prospect at the moment.”

NBC News' Jim Maceda contributed to this report. Follow Alastair Jamieson on Twitter.

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Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP - Getty Images

Two of the organisers of the upcoming opposition rally "For Fair Elections," anti-Kremlin blogger Alexei Navalny (R) and former chess champion Garry Kasparov (L), speak as they attend a meeting of the rally organisers in Moscow, on Jan. 31, 2012.

MOSCOW – By any standard, it was an impressive array of individuals. Seated under a large poster of a young Andrei Sakharov – the Soviet nuclear physicist, dissident, 1975 Nobel Peace Prize recipient and spiritual father of their movement – the brain trust of Moscow's anti-Putin opposition sat at card tables debating their next move.  

The group was putting the finishing touches on the plan for this Saturday's protest – an hour march through central Moscow and a short rally across the Moskva River from the Kremlin. It will be the third mass opposition demonstration in Moscow since the December 4 parliamentary polls that were widely criticized for voter fraud in favor of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s party.  

Six weeks ago, more than 100,000 protesters took to the streets to vent their anger with the corruption and stagnation of the Putin regime. But since then, the end-of-year Russian holidays, followed by a Siberian cold snap with record-breaking temperatures, has undeniably sapped the protest movement's energy. The organizers collective fatigue was palpable.

Garry Kasparov, the former world chess champion, led the meeting. Not because he's so smart he almost beat a super computer at chess, but because his countless arrests and beatings at the hands of Russian riot police had earned him the mantle. Seated beside him were the two young stars of the new generation of Russian dissidents, the right-of-center blogger Alexei Navalny and socialist activist Sergei Udaltsov. 

Str / AFP - Getty Images

Opposition activists hang their banner reading: "Putin, go!" atop a bulding's roof, just over the Moskva River river from the Kremlin (foreground) in Moscow, on Feb. 1.

Both men, in their 30's, had recently spent weeks in jail on charges of organizing illegal protests. Now they were subdued, speaking occasionally, but more often just listening, scrolling through their iPhone messages or tweeting.

Opposite Kasparov, sat Vladimir Ryzhkov.  He too had paid his dues. Once the youngest MP elected to Boris Yeltsin's parliament at age 27, Ryzhkov, broad-minded and articulate, was seen rather differently by Putin's Kremlin. The “dangerous” reformer has effectively been ostracized from mainstream politics. 

“No doubt the Russian Winter is not as inviting as the Arab Spring,” Kasparov quipped. “But I would say that 30, 40 or 50,000 in this weather will send a message across the river to the Kremlin.''

But what message will that be? Putin's propaganda machine will likely jump on any smaller turn-out, proving, they will no doubt say, that the protest is petering out.

By the end of their two hour meeting the protest organizers were clearly divided over what to do next to regain some momentum.

Navalny argued that the mass protests of December needed to grow bigger and more frequent to pressure the Kremlin. But author Boris Akunin argued that the days of the big protests were over. They were too costly, too time-consuming, and had already peaked. It was time, he said, to focus on smaller, flash mob-generated actions.

Misha Japaridze / AP

Russian opposition leader Sergei Udaltsov shows a V sign after he was released from a detention center in Moscow, Russia, Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2012. Udaltsov, whose jailing became a rallying point for the Russian opposition, has been freed after a month in custody.

Indeed, across Moscow, such “attacks” are growing in number. On any given day, small groups of protesters walk out of the city's many subway stations, their mouths covered with strips of masking tape, on which is written “We Have No Voice.” They're arrested almost as soon as they walk into the street. They also have tried cyber-attacks on the Kremlin's Internet. Within hours of the launch of Putin's own website, it was jammed by thousands of emails calling on him to resign.

And in arguably the most startling “protest,” several activists managed to hang a giant banner on the top of a building directly opposite the Kremlin for all to see. Painted on the banner, both Putin’s likeness covered by a huge “X,” and beneath it, the words, “Go Away!” in Russian. Amazingly it took an hour for the police to spot it and tear it down. But, while often hilarious, none of these flash mob tactics are likely to keep Putin from winning a six-year term in the March 4 presidential elections.

Kremlin's photo-doctoring backfires big time

Putin himself seems to have come to that conclusion. Creating massive traffic jams in central Moscow today as his convoy skidded over the icy snow from one campaign stop to another, he's got his swagger back. His camp believes the protest movement is too divided to coalesce around one opposition candidate. And, besides, the other official candidates – Communist Gennady Zyuganov, Nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Social Democrat Sergei Mironov and billionaire owner of the New Jersey Nets Mikhail Prokhorov – are all Kremlin-approved because they pose no real threat.

Andrey Smirnov / AFP - Getty Images

A police officer braves the cold as he detains a demonstrator wearing a carnival costume of death who tried to take part in an unauthorized stage protest just outside the Interior Ministry headquarters in Moscow on Friday. The sign on the protester's chest says "Corruption."

So what happens to the movement if Putin wins? Ryzhkov painted a dark picture: “There will be mass protests starting March 5th,” he said in his Moscow home and office following the meeting. “And then we stay in the streets until reforms start and Putin promises new legislative and presidential elections.”
 
“You mean Tent Cities,” I asked?

“Yes,” he replied. “Like the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.”

And what if Putin doesn't reform, but instead cracks down?

“Unfortunately Putin is a dangerous man. He can start some violence like [Syria’s] Bashar al-Assad or [Libya’s] Moammar Ghadafi. But I hope that if he sees a half million people in the streets, he will start reforms instead of violence.”

Many middle-class, well-educated Russians are calling the protests a turning point. But is it the beginning of the end of Putin's political career? Or rather the beginning of an unprecedented second 12-year run of power for the only real leader Russians have known this century?

The answer is blowing in a bone-chilling, Siberian wind.

Jim Maceda is an NBC News foreign correspondent based in London who has covered Russia and the former Soviet Union since the 1980's.

Kirill Kudryavtsev / AFP - Getty Images

Anti-Kremlin blogger Alexei Navalny speaks during a rally against the December 4 parliament elections in Moscow, on Dec. 24, 2011. Tens of thousands of people filled an avenue in Moscow to protest against the alleged rigging of parliamentary polls in a new challenge to Russian strongman Vladimir Putin's authority.

LONDON – Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and those who work for him, seem determined to turn a relatively unknown, 30-something protester into a larger-than-life political rival.

It all began on a cold, December 4 afternoon, when Alexei Navalny stood up among a small crowd in Moscow and blasted Putin's United Russia party as one of “crooks and thieves” who had just stolen the parliamentary elections. The Kremlin put him in jail for two weeks. The tactic was obvious: keeping Navalny locked up would hinder his ability to organize a massive anti-Putin demonstration on December 24.

Instead, the move backfired and ended up boosting Navalny's profile – and street cred – at a time when the splintered opposition was hungry for a new leader.

By Dec. 24 he was out of prison and had become the face of the opposition. His rant in the bitter cold that day inspired more than 100,000 people in the street to “take back the election – by force if necessary” from those who had stolen it.
 
But catapulting Navalny into instant celebrity wasn't good enough for the over-anxious Kremlinites. Now they've made him the face of their own absurdity as well. 

Open up last Saturday's edition of Arguments & Facts, a popular national daily, and you'll find a photo of a beaming Navalny standing next to Putin's arch enemy, the oligarch-in-exile Boris Berezovsky, himself sporting a Cheshire cat smile.

theguardian.com

A screen grab from the Guardian shows the original photo of Alexei Navalny with Prokhorov on the top left, the doctored one with Berezovsky and some other fakes that have been circulated online.

The caption reads: “Navalny has never hidden that Boris Berezovsky gives him money for the struggle with Putin.”

Well, it took Navalny and his corral of fellow bloggers a few nano-seconds to work out that the photo had been doctored.

In the actual photo, Navalny is standing next to another, Putin-friendly oligarch, Mikhail Prokhorov, the owner of the New Jersey Nets and a candidate for Russia's presidency.

But standing next to Prokhorov is seen as benign because he's neither considered an agitator nor a serious threat to the Kremlin.

Instead of just pointing out the fakery, Navalny’s supporters took things to the next level – by beaming photos across the blogosphere of him standing next to the likes of Arnold Schwarzenegger, a space alien, Putin and other action men.

Rich history of air-brushing
The air-brushing of photos for propaganda reasons is an old Soviet art. Joseph Stalin routinely had  friends and allies erased from photos taken with him when they became his enemies (often after he’d had them killed, as in the famous case of Nikolai Yezhov, the leader of the NKVD, precursor of the KGB, in the 1920s.) 

My personal faking favorite is the iconic shot of several Soviet soldiers holding up the hammer-sickle-flag above the German Reichstag building, marking the effective end of the war in Europe in 1945. If you look closely you'll see that the soldier supporting the flag-bearer is wearing a watch on his left arm. In the original, however, he has watches on both arms – suggesting that he might have looted them. The Russian magazine Ogonok removed the second watch just before publication.
 
Of course, the practice is not restricted to Russia. Ever since photographs became a means by which world leaders defined themselves to their public, photos of Hitler, Mussolini, Mao Tse-tung, and going back in time, Grant, Sherman and, yes, even Abraham Lincoln, were doctored in order to enhance their image.   .
 
But seldom has a manipulated photo backfired with the same concussive effect that Navalny's has.

Staff / Reuters

Activists of the pro-Kremlin youth group "Nashi" gather to protest against the activity of Russian blogger, political and social activist Alexei Navalny with a fake placard of him in central Moscow Dec. 26, 2011.

One can even imagine the taciturn Putin, an ex-KGB agent, letting out an unforced guffaw as he scans Navalny's blog and finds the latest “photo-toad” (an English translation of the Russian slang for a doctored photo) of Navalny standing next to Bender, the robot from the comic strip Futurama.

Putin's camp had no doubt hoped to turn Navalny into an enemy of Russia's people. Instead, the Kremlin itself has become a lightning rod for Russians' scorn and mockery, and Navalny has seen himself launched into the stratosphere of a Marvel Comics hero, without even having to lift a megaphone.

In the lead-up to the March presidential election, Putin – still considered a shoo-in to win it all – may yet turn out to be his own worst propagandist.

Jim Maceda is an NBC news correspondent based in London who has covered Russia and the Soviet Union since the 1980s.

What’s up with Putin’s face?

It’s the talk of the Web from Vladivostok to Vermont: What did Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin do to his face? His wrinkle-free visage is sparking rumors of plastic surgery or heavy Botox use.

The Guardian reports there is a joke that's been doing the rounds in Russia since Putin confirmed he would run again for the presidency next year: "In response to the charge that there are no new faces in Russian politics, Vladimir Putin got plastic surgery."

Watch NBC’s Brian Williams report above and you be the judge.