Louai Beshara / AFP - Getty Images

A Syrian man holds a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah during a pro-regime rally in Damascus on Jan. 11, 2012.

NEWS ANALYSIS

BEIRUT, Lebanon – On a freshly paved road that runs from Baalbak to Ersal in northern Lebanon stands a towering billboard.
 
On one half of the billboard is Syrian President Bashar Assad, in military uniform. On the other half is a portrait of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the powerful Lebanese political and paramilitary organization that has been labeled a terrorist group by Washington.

The conflict in neighboring Syria has put Hezbollah, the staunch regional resistance movement, in a tough spot. Despite praising the Arab Spring democracy movement in many other countries, Hezbollah and its leader Nasrallah are standing by the Assad regime, even as it kills thousands of its own people to preserve power.

While Hezbollah supports Assad’s regime, the broader Lebanese population is divided and hesitant to take sides. Nonetheless, there is growing concern that this distance will be increasingly difficult to maintain as the conflict spirals on.

In fact, both pro- and anti-Assad groups have traded accusations that the other is receiving material support from inside Lebanon

Rivals or bedfellows?
On the surface, Assad and Nasrallah appear to be opposites.

Assad is the president of a country that is increasingly isolated in the international community and is widely unpopular on the Arab street. His government is embattled and his grip on power challenged.

Nasrallah, on the other hands, is the head of a popular Lebanese resistance movement and a domestic political force. He enjoys widespread support on the Arab street, particularly for his staunch resistance to Israel and Western imperialism in the region.

Nasrallah’s organization is considered the strongest non-state actor in the Middle East. It commands respect for its firepower and discipline. Nasrallah’s leadership of Hezbollah is not in doubt. Ideologically, Nasrallah and his organization draw on their Shiite Muslim religious beliefs as the steadfast backbone of their convictions.

In comparison, Assad's Baath party, which rules Syria, is staunchly secular. 

But when it comes to understanding why the two men share the same billboard, as well as campaign posters at pro-Assad rallies,  there is only one measuring stick, according to a Hezbollah official who spoke on the condition of anonymity: "What is the specific party's proximity to the resistance of Western and Israeli aggressions and occupation in the Middle East?” He added, "Nothing else matters.”

Shared enemy
For years, Syria was a conduit by which Hezbollah was able to acquire support from its main backer Iran (also a close ally of the Syrian regime). Because Syria aided and supported Hezbollah's top priority – perpetuating resistance to Israeli occupation – it was considered an ally despite their differences.

While the organization supports the democratic aspirations of all people in the region, there cannot be a "conflict of priorities.”
Hezbollah’s "only priority is the perpetuation of resistance” to Israel, the official said.

Ahmed Jadallah / Reuters

Syrian protesters step on a poster of Syrian President Basahr al-Assad and Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during a protest against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Saqba, Syria on Jan. 27, 2012.

That helps explain why Assad and Nasrallah are pictured on the billboard and other posters around Lebanon conveying a message of solidarity. The two men are allies because they are celebrated as pillars of Arab resistance and enemies of Israel. It is the classic "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" scenario.

In fact, Nasrallah made a rare public appearance in December to address his followers and make clear his support for the Syrian regime.  

"We support the reforms in Syria and we stand with the regime against the resistance movement," Nasrallah said at a rally in Beirut on Dec. 6. He has rarely been seen in public since Hezbollah’s war with Israel in 2006 out of fear of an Israeli assassination attempt.

His appearance was meant to reiterate not only his support for Assad’s regime – but also to diminish any sense that Hezbollah had been weakened by the ongoing conflict in Syria. 

It was also meant to thwart what the Hezbollah official said is seen as a major outgrowth of the "Arab awakenings" – inviting more Western influence and interference, if not dominance, in the region. For the Arab revolutions to succeed, he believes, “Western meddling and interference in the region must be rejected and true Arab sovereignty established.”

To Hezbollah, losing Assad means losing an ally; so by their calculation, it is more important to avoid losing their ally Assad than gain a pro-democratic and Western-oriented Syria.

This has been Hezbollah's position towards the Western-led invasion of Iraq, the Western-backed airstrikes on Libya and it would be the same for any Western action against Iran, the official added.

Not fighting other people's wars
What would Hezbollah do if Iran is attacked by Israel and/or the U.S.? Would it fire back at Israel? Target American or Israeli interests? Remain on the sidelines?

"Constructive ambiguity" is how the Hezbollah official described their approach. "Why would Hezbollah tell its enemies what it will do?"

"We have the right to self-defense.” But he quickly added, “We are a resistance movement that is Lebanese, we don't fight other peoples’ war, we fight to defend ourselves.”

The intense fighting in Syria between President Bashar Assad's forces and opposition rebels seems to be getting worse by the day. On Wednesday, a French photojournalist and a prominent American war correspondent working for a British newspaper were killed as Syrian forces intensely shelled the opposition stronghold of Homs. 

Weeks of withering attacks on the city of Homs have failed to drive out opposition factions that include rebel soldiers who fled Assad's forces. Hundreds have died in the siege - galvanizing international pressure on Assad, who appears intent on widening his military crackdowns despite the risk of pushing Syria into full-scale civil war.

NBC News' Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel is on assignment along the Turkey-Syria border. He answered reader questions about the ongoing conflict in Syria earlier today.

Click on the box below to replay the chat.

Editor's note: Cairo-based NBC News correspondent Ayman Mohyeldin is reporting from Syria this week. Follow his updates on Twitter @Aymanm

Update at 5:20 p.m. ET Wednesday: Arab League monitor in Idleb described monitoring mission there as terrifying, repeatedly coming under attack and receiving threats.

Update at 8:18 a.m. ET Wednesday: Police in #damascus have let us go after about an hour and deleting our video of long petrol lines #syria

 Update at 8 a.m. ET Wednesday: Ayman Mohyeldin says in a message on Twitter that he was "Taken to police station in #damascus. Despite having permits we were forced to delete video of people waiting in line."

Published at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday: Inside Syria, Day 1

DAMASCUS -- To say that Damascus suffers from a cult of personality is an understatement. Arriving in Damascus airport, there is no mistaking who runs Syria: "Doctor Bashar al-Assad."

In the short walk from the airplane to the car, I counted more than 200 posters plastered on the walls, columns, doors and pretty much everywhere my eye turned. All I could see were pictures carrying the image of Assad. From planting olive trees to donning full military dress, Assad is everywhere. Even customs officials processing our paperwork were humming pro-Assad songs.

A few hours later, at a dinner with old and new friends in a Damascus restaurant, I am told it's not just the president's image that is ubiquitous, it’s the entire security apparatus that's keeping a watchful eye on what is happening in Damascus. "Be careful what you say and when you say it," a friend tells me. "Never speak freely with a taxi driver or start a random conversation about what is going on," I am advised.

But despite the warning, there is a certain ease by which the current crisis comes to the surface of any discussion. Criticism of the government is rampant at one restaurant where conversations flow from table to table. An occasional silence interrupts the chats as diners peek over the shoulders to ensure no one is paying attention too closely. "It's OK, don’t worry, the regime has bigger problems right now than to worry what is being said on every table. We know everyone here," my friend says, nudging me to keep on eating.

Over the course of the next several hours, I hear about "Syria's uprising" from those living it daily, including its pitfalls, its weaknesses, its strengths. Lessons learned and gains made. In the background, a TV plays Arab music songs, and then a red ticker on the screen flashes a breaking news bulletin. In unison, heads across the restaurant turn: An explosion has been reported in the Damascus neighborhood of Nahr El Aisha. People turn back to their meals.

Damascus is a city on edge. There is an uneasy nervousness in the city. Yes, shops are open, and restaurants and cafés bustle with patrons. But that’s up to a certain time, and for those who know Damascus, it’s a few hours less than normal, and a few hours less than what it was just a few months ago. There is an unofficial curfew, imposed by residents who are weary of a different city after dark. There are parts of the city where the risks of travel are too dangerous at night. As we drive around one roundabout in the city, we veer on to a side street. "This side of the circle is safe. If you drive a kilometer in the other side, there are tensions between the residents and the security," my friend tells me.

Sana/Handout / EPA

An image of President Bashir al-Assad watches over the scene of a pro-government rally at Sabe Bahrat square in Damascus in December.

The government says "armed gangs" have inched closer to the capital, frequently attacking security checkpoints at night. Several attacks have already happened in the heart of the capital. And even government employees concede certain routes in and out of the city have become too dangerous to traverse. Anti-government activists say momentum is on their side as pressure mounts on the government, with political and military defections increasing. When night falls, security forces crack down on neighborhoods close to the capital where anti-government sentiment runs high.

Along one of the capital's main streets, one side of the street is well lit. The other is dark. Local residents tell me power outages are becoming more frequent across the city. There are rolling blackouts and increasing shortages of fuel and gas. Factories are shutting down, exports are halting. The value of the Syrian currency is plummeting and inflation is skyrocketing as a result of international and Arab sanctions that are aimed at punishing Assad's government. But the sanctions are clearly taking a toll on the daily lives of Syrians.

But their daily lives go on, it seems for now, as routine as they can be in the middle of a 10-month uprising against the rule of the man seen everywhere in Damascus.

AFP - Getty Images

This videograb from Syrian state television shows Syrian President Bashar al-Assad delivering a speech in Damascus on Tuesday.

ANALYSIS

CAIRO – It was a speech that was long in form, but short on new substance.

For the first time since June, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad spoke publicly, addressing a crowd at Damascus University in a nearly two-hour speech that was carried live on state television and around the Arab world. 

But if Assad is under increasing international pressure and isolation, he certainly did not show it.

In fact, he was defiant as ever, seemingly casual at times but confident with his government’s course of action. At one point, he dismissed calls to step down, saying that while he never sought power, he would also not shy away from his responsibilities as the country's ruler.

The speech followed the same talking points the Syrian regime has been consistently delivering: There will be no let-up in the crackdown on what Syria describes as terrorists who are undermining the state and its sovereignty. Foreign hands are at work to divide Syria and sow sedition in an attempt to conquer the broader region.

But perhaps the strongest words from the president’s speech were targeted at the Arab League, the pan-Arab regional body, which has condemned Syria and sanctioned it for its violet crackdown on protesters that the U.N. estimates has killed 5,000 people since March 2011.

He even said the Arab League should be called the “Foreign League.” With that comment he seemed to be playing to his audience, if there is one thing that irks people across the Arab world uniformly it’s the notion of foreign powers intervening in their domestic affairs.

Tough spot for Arab League
Analysts say the Arab League is in a difficult position. Its 165-person observer mission in Syria is tasked with making sure Damascus complies with an agreement aimed at ending the violence. The mission has drawn criticism for its work and its composition – including the fact that a Sudanese general who has been accused of war crimes himself is in charge of the mission.

The observer mission is expected to submit its full report on Jan. 19 in Cairo. Russia says the mission is helping stabilize the country, but according to activists inside and outside Syria, the death toll continues to rise, leading many in the opposition to worry the mission could simply serve as a political cover for the continued crackdown. 

Syrian opposition groups say the Syrian government is limiting the mobility and ability of the mission to freely see the facts on the ground. A group of Arab League observers were reportedly attacked by “unknown protesters” in the northern city of Latakia on Monday.

Opposition groups say they want the Arab League to refer the Syria crisis to the United Nations Security Council. But doing so may prove to be a double edge sword for the Arab body which does not want to appear as having given the green light for foreign action in yet another Arab country.

The fear among some within the Arab League, according to sources I have spoken to, is that such a move would pave the way for international intervention in Syria that could ultimately take the shape of military action. However, Western powers have expressed their unwillingness for any foreign military action in Syria like that in Libya.

The Arab League was criticized when it referred Libya to the United Nations. That move ultimately led to NATO military intervention that helped topple the Gadhafi regime.

Louai Beshara / AFP - Getty Images

Syrians watch President Bashar al-Assad's address on television in a cafe in Damascus on Tuesday.

The current Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby previously told me the Libya decision was a mistake (he was not the Secretary General at the time of that vote) and he did not want it repeated under his leadership.

The Syrian opposition has concluded that the Arab League is divided and weak to take any further actions to stop the bloodshed. But they are divided as well.

The opposition movements both inside and outside of Syria have been criticized for their inability to build a cohesive decision-making opposition body that could allay the fears of regional countries and also meet  the immediate demands of the Syrian people in a possible post-Assad Syria.

‘A challenge of biblical proportions’
The larger international community isn’t stepping up to fill the leadership void, either. The international community is reluctant to get involved in Syria as it did in Libya. The regional fallout could be greater following any intervention in Syria than it was for Libya.

Security experts say Syria's military capabilities are far greater than Libya's and that poses a whole host of challenges. 

“There are questions as to whether the process could be repeated, for example, in Syria,” said Jeremy Binnie, a senior analyst at IHS Jane’s, the defense and security intelligence provider. “Russia and China have expressed concerns that the U.N. resolution to protect Libyan civilians was loosely interpreted, the allies were up against inferior air defenses and the potential geo-strategic ramifications of the intervention were comparatively limited.”

Binnie explained how the situation in Syria differs from Libya. “The Syrian regime would be a significantly harder to topple and the fallout potentially far more serious, especially given the country’s arsenal of chemical weapons. Libya’s air defenses were a push over by comparison. Syria would be a challenge of biblical proportions compared with Libya.”

Hanging in the balance
For now, Assad says his government will press ahead with reforms while pushing for wider political participation from opposition groups. The president boldly promised that a new constitution would be put up for referendum later this spring and new elections would be held shortly after, a timetable that analysts say is unlikely to produce genuine reform.

Opposition groups have dismissed these as half-hearted measures and duplicitous. But with a divided opposition, timid Arab neighbors and an international community that lacks consensus on what to do, Assad has found a balance in which he continues to remain in power.

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