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  • In China, a rush to own a home of your own

    BEIJING – Just how far behind I am in the race to get into the Chinese property market was made starkly clear to me recently. My cleaning lady – who earns about $90 a month for each of the handful of households she cleans (considered a high rate for Beijing) – recently beamed proudly to me about becoming a homeowner. 

    Granted, it was a small apartment in a somewhat remote area way out by the Sixth Ring Road, the outermost highway circling the Chinese capital, but there was no getting away from the fact she owned her own home while I'm still doling out monthly rent that some people here liken to "money down the drain." 

    VIDEO: Is China the next housing bubble?

    Like their American counterparts during the 20th century, millions of China's middle class have been snapping up homes over the past two decades. Since the late 1990s, China's central government has had in place economic policies that have enabled more than nine out of ten middle class urban families to purchase their own homes.

    It's been dubbed "the largest one-time transfer of wealth in the history of the world," by Andy Rothman, the China macro-strategist at CLSA, an independent investment group.

    The demand has led to booming prices. In February, the average cost for residential property across China's cities was 10.7 percent higher than it was in the same month last year.

    But the price rises are meteoric when one isolates cities like Beijing or Shanghai, where the rate of increases for average housing units is anywhere between 50 and 100 percent a year, and the supply of newly built units is spilling over into second-tier suburbs with little or no public transport options.

    This kind of growth is happening in spite of what consumers in the U.S. or the U.K., after years of easy credit, might think of as stringent borrowing rules. For one, first-time homeowners in China typically pay 30 to 40 percent cash as a down payment, although often buyers will pony up all-cash payments for their property.

    Adrienne Mong / NBC News
    The Chinese character for "demolish" looms above a soon-to-be construction site for new housing units.

    'Time to buy'

    Being a home owner has become one of the main priorities in life for China's young and upwardly mobile. 

    "Owning an apartment is very important to us," said Gao, a 32-year-old Beijing resident shopping for a home with his fiancée (he would only give his family name). "Life is the most important thing to us, then work, then a house."

    The desire for property has been fueled, in part, by the government's reaction to the recession. As the global slump made its way from west to east during the end of 2008, the Chinese government decided that bolstering domestic consumption would help its economy ride out the downturn. That meant easier credit for the average consumer, thus encouraging them to buy property.

    Vicky Tang, an English-language teacher from Hebei had stood on the property sidelines for years, said that the interest rates were so low it seemed silly not to dip her toes into the property market. "It was time to buy," she said.

    A bubble about to burst?
    Lately, however, observers worry that the easy credit may have been too much of a good thing, with economists wondering if China's property bubble has become too frothy.

    "At least seven cities saw land prices triple in 2009," wrote Stephen Green, head of the Greater China research division at Standard Chartered Bank. "This is clearly bubble territory for the land markets in many cities."

    Others have thrown out the specter of Dubai. A comment that China is "Dubai times 1,000 or worse," by Jim Chanos, a hedge fund manager, has become a widely quoted refrain. 

    Some Chinese economists agree. "The statistics suggest that the real estate bubble in China is even bigger than that in Dubai," said Liu Yuhui from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. 

    Liu, though, is quick to note a key difference between the two countries: "This is not caused by speculators, but by the [Chinese] government finance and tax system," which he believes can be easily addressed and enable officials to manage a "soft landing."

    Adrienne Mong / NBC News
    Recyclers sort through demolition debris at a site slated for a new housing development. 

    Low cost housing coming
    In fact, Beijing has already taken several steps to address the problem. Control measures over taxes, credit, land supply and housing construction have been introduced steadily since late last year, and recent signs suggest these measures are proving to be effective, with residential prices beginning to cool earlier this year.

    In addition, officials are making an effort to make housing affordable and available to young Chinese, especially in the face of burgeoning shanty towns and other substandard housing.

    Late last year, reports described the desperate situation in a place dubbed "Ant City" on the outer edges of Beijing, where tens of thousands of university graduates and other employable and aspiring white collar workers were housed in dorm-like rooms. 

    For instance, Jia Yongle, a 23-year-old university graduate with a degree in business management, has been struggling to find a job while living in a 200 square foot apartment with three others (each paying roughly 40 dollars a month in rent).

    The authorities say they are investing $59 billion in the construction of subsidized housing across the nation as well as the reconstruction of shanty towns, projects to resettle nomads and the renovation of housing in rural areas.

    In Beijing, for example, the mayor has promised that the construction of subsidized housing will make up at least 50 percent of total new building projects in the city.

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  • Hong Kong celebrates role in Olympic rugby revival

    HONG KONG –If you aren't a fan of rugby yet, International Olympic Committee President Jacques Rogge has a message for you: It's coming, and in a format which might finally engage an elusive American audience.

    Image: Samoa's Pesamino on his way to score
    Bobby Yip / Reuters
    New Zealand's Tim Mikkelson falls to the ground after failing to tackle Samoa's Mikaele Pesamino on his way to score during the final of the Hong Kong Sevens rugby tournament on Sunday. Samoa beat New Zealand to win the championship. 

    In the six months since rugby "sevens" – a variation of rugby where the standard 15 players on a team is slashed down to 7 – was voted into the 2016 Summer Olympics, Rogge has been making the rounds selling the merits of the game to audiences all over the world.

    It should come as no surprise then that Rogge was in Hong Kong last weekend to attend the Hong Kong Rugby Sevens, Asia's oldest sevens tournament and what many rugby players have long considered the unofficial Olympic games for rugby sevens.

    Though the decision to include rugby in the Summer Games has been cheered by fans and players alike in Hong Kong, many have been quick to condemn the IOC's vision of an Olympic Sevens tournament that would be less inclusive than the extremely popular Hong Kong template. 

    Modest beginnings

    Sevens rugby differs greatly from traditional 15 player rugby, with shorter games and fewer players on the field – two teams of seven players compete for two periods of seven minutes each – so the matches tend to be fast paced and high scoring.

    Hong Kong's Sevens has been extremely influential in helping to develop world class Asian rugby.

    The first Hong Kong Sevens Tournament in 1976 started modestly with teams from Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Tonga, Japan, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Fiji. 

    While it started on a small scale, the tournament had the advantage of Cathay Pacific Airways as a sponsor and Hong Kong's cosmopolitan location, which helped tournament organizers lure new teams and elevate the competition level.

    It's now grown to include 24 teams – including traditional rugby powerhouses like England and South Africa.

    While the traditional version of rugby with 15 favors bulky players, the qualities required in sevens – agility, ball skills and fitness – have allowed many Asian countries that lack a lot of experience with contact sports to adapt to the sport.

    With increased exposure to top quality competition and training, Asian teams like Japan, Korea and Hong Kong have developed quickly to be able to compete with some of the more traditional rugby powerhouses.

    It was that interplay between improved competition and tournament exposure that Hong Kong organizers had hoped for and what helped set the stage for rugby to leapfrog into the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro.

    With more opportunities to develop and compete against top teams, as well as the lower costs of maintaining a sevens team compared to sports like baseball, it is easy to see how Asian countries like China, Fiji and Tonga, as well as African countries like Kenya and Zimbabwe, saw rugby as one of their best chances to medal in an Olympic sport and voted accordingly.

    Humble beginnings ignored?

    While the inclusiveness of rugby sevens is part of what allowed it to catapult into the Olympic limelight, the IOC's vision of what Olympic rugby competition might look like has generated some angry backlash from many of its original supporters.

    Rogge's announcement in Hong Kong on Monday that the 2016 Games will only feature 12 teams, rather than the standard 16 or 24, has irked supporters who say smaller countries will be pushed out in favor of the traditional powerhouses.

    U.S. Coach Al Caravelli is one of those calling for an expanded tournament. While the U.S. team had strongest showing ever at the Hong Kong Sevens over this past weekend, and are likely to make it into the Olympics, Caravelli stressed the importance of a diverse Olympic Sevens tournament.

    "Hopefully [the IOC] will see that this will be the greatest team sport to ever play in the Olympics with the fan base it can bring, and also the minnow or smaller nations such as Fiji, Samoa or even Kenya can take part," said Caravelli. "Giving these small countries a chance to medal is huge for them on the world stage. If we truly believe we want to make this sport really global, definitely they should have at least 16 teams."

    Caravelli is onto something: Samoa actually won the Hong Kong Sevens tournament on Sunday.

    But perhaps he was thinking closer to home. He and other Americans know that the last time rugby was an Olympic sport at the 1924 Paris Games, there was a shocking "minnow" of a winner: the United States.

  • Palestinian tragedy turns into miracle for others

    TEL AVIV -- Ahmed Khatib was shot dead by Israeli soldiers in the West Bank town of Jenin in 2005, when they mistook his toy gun for a real weapon. Practically the whole town of Jenin attended Ahmed's funeral and the incident was major news in Israel.

    But his father was determined to make sure something positive came out of the tragic loss of his son's life, so he donated Ahmed's organs to dying Israeli children. A Druze girl in Northern Israel received his heart, a Bedouin boy in Southern Israel got one of his kidneys and a Jewish girl in Jerusalem got the other.

    NBC's Tom Aspell reports on how one family's tragedy transformed lives of so many others for good.

    VIDEO: Turning a Palestinian tragedy into a miracle for others

  • How Karzai got an earful from Obama

    KABUL -- President Obama came to Kabul to deliver a stern message to Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai, and, according to one close Karzai observer, it landed.

    Haroun Mir, head of the Center for Research Policy Studies in Kabul, told NBC News that when Obama and Karzai spoke to reporters at the Presidential Palace Sunday night it appeared "from the tone of [Karzai's] voice, one could understand that he certainly received a very tough message. And he was not very comfortable."

    On the flight from Washington, National Security Advisor James Jones told reporters aboard Air Force One that the administration wanted Karzai to "understand that in his second term, there are certain things that have not been paid attention to almost from Day 1." He said Karzai "needs to be seized with how important" the issue of corruption -- which pervades daily life for Afghans -- is for U.S. officials.

    "What the U.S. administration is asking from President Karzai, it is honestly not too much," said Mir, a former member of the Northern Alliance, a disparate group that united to oppose the Taliban's rule. "This requires a political will within his government. … We are sure we cannot overnight turn Afghanistan into a liberal democracy, but at least we can improve things in order to win the hearts and minds of local people and this is the job for the Afghan people."

     

  • How the president does his ‘secret squirrel’ trips

     KABUL – President Obama's unannounced visit to Afghanistan was the third secret presidential stop in a war zone that I've covered. Once before I was on the receiving end--in Baghdad when President George W. Bush had Thanksgiving dinner with troops in 2003 -- and I was the television representative with Bush when he visited a U.S. air base in al Anbar province on Labor Day 2008.

    These "secret squirrel" trips, as I call them, are carried out with strict operational security, which is sometimes hard to accomplish given the fishbowl a president operates in. Mr. Obama slipped away from Camp David in Maryland's Catoctin Mountains, a relatively easy maneuver since it's out of the public eye.

    For his 2008 trip, Bush was driven from the White House to Andrews Air Force Base through holiday weekend traffic in broad daylight. The man who engineered that, then-White House Deputy Chief of Staff Joe Hagin, has promised to tell me how that was pulled off -- someday.
    The small group of reporters accompanying the president -- the "pool" representing their colleagues who travel in a pre-determined rotation -- are given a few days' advance notice. When I went, we were summoned one-by-one to be told what was up. We could tell only our bosses and -- if absolutely necessary -- one family member. And those conversations had to be in person and alone, never by telephone.

    We were told to be at a certain gate at Andrews Air Force Base at a certain hour. Once on the base, we surrendered all electronic devices -- cell phones, BlackBerry's, computers and so on -- and driven into the hangar where Air Force One was being prepared for the trip. For normal presidential trips, that gleaming gold, white blue and silver Boeing 747 is sitting on the tarmac.

    For Bush's 2008 trip, there was an added complication. He was stopping in Iraq on his way to Australia for the APEC summit and the chartered jet taking the press was already on the tarmac. So once darkness fell, Air Force One, lights out, shades drawn and engines silent, was towed from the hangar to the end of the runway. Only there were the engines started up. We took off, still with the lights off.

    Reporters accompanying Mr. Obama could not report that he was in Afghanistan until he had landed by helicopter at the Presidential Palace. In 2008, the embargo was lifted once Air Force One touched down on Iraqi soil. At that moment, the rest of the White House press was aboard their chartered United Airlines jet heading for a refueling stop in Hawaii. A White House deputy press secretary had to borrow NBC's satellite phone to call the airline's dispatch center to relay a message using Bush's Secret Service code name for a colleague aboard that plane: "Trailblazer has landed."

    That was the signal for that aide to deliver a sealed envelope to the deputy press secretary traveling on the charter containing a letter telling him what was up. Security was so tight that even he had been fooled.

     

  • Welcome to Kabul! Wanna go to a dog fight?

     KABUL – I've traveled around the world to some unusual destinations for work, but my first trip to Afghanistan was unlike any other I've taken.

    It began as I walked out of the gleaming, modern Dubai International Airport into the aging Boeing 737 of Safi Airways.

    First of all, there was the time change. I always set my watch to the time of my destination. That meant moving it 30 minutes ahead. Not an hour. Not two hours. But half-an-hour. As one who is ever-mindful of the time at "NBC News World Headquarters in New York" (as Michael Douglas intones at the beginning of "NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams"), I'm in for a lot of strenuous mental mathematics over the next four weeks.

    Image: Afghan Dog Fighting Makes Resurgence After Taliban Rule
    Majid Saeedi / Getty Images
    Afghan spectators watch as two fighting dogs attack each other during a weekly dog fight in Kabul on Dec. 11, 2009. Dogfighting is having a resurgence after it was banned under the Taliban for being un-Islamic. Click here for a slideshow of civilian life in Afghanistan 

    And there's the English-language in-flight magazine. These publications are usually bright and cheery, touting the beauty and charms of the airline's destination cities. The lead feature of the April/May edition, under the heading "Live Entertainment in Kabul," is about what appears to be a major spectator sport in the capital city: dog fighting.

    "Growling, snapping, leaping and grabbing, the dogs attack each other in swirling clouds of ochre-colored dust," the article chirps. "Dogs may be a costly investment for the average Afghan, but they can also make their owners money."

    Then take the magazine's city guide for Kabul, headlined "Full of Life," which includes these helpful tips:

    – At the airport "Taxis are available to the city center, but it is safer to be picked up."

    – "Westerners are occasionally targeted by criminals or Taliban sympathizers, and kidnapping can be a threat."

    – "Riots happen occasionally and are often accompanied by looting – stay well away from them as authorities will respond with lethal force."

    – "Kabul is generally considered one of the safer parts of the country, but bombings have increased somewhat."

    At least no one can accuse them of sugar-coating.

  • Google’s fans and foes in China trade barbs

    BEIJING – Flowers. Candles. Cards. Songs. No – it wasn't Valentine's Day. Just the day after Google began redirecting its mainland China users to an uncensored server based in Hong Kong.

    Dozens of Chinese Netizens gathered in front of Google's headquarters in northwestern Beijing Tuesday to bid farewell to the Internet giant by presenting tokens of their affection. One of the cards placed on top of the company's logo outside its gate said, "In Google We Trust." Some people held posters saying "I love Google."

    But the vigil did not go as smoothly as the Google lovers hoped. They were constantly harassed by both plainclothed and uniformed police who told them to leave and wouldn't allow them to light their candles. A bit of bickering broke out between police and candle holders, but nothing got violent.

    Image: Chinese college students holds a candlelight vigil outside the Google head office
    AFP - Getty Images
    A group of Chinese students hold a candlelight vigil outside the Google headquarters in Beijing on Tuesday, holding placards saying, "We Love Google" after Google stopped censoring search engine results in China the day before. 

    On Wednesday, a similar farewell party was held in Guangzhou, in southern China, just a few hours' drive from Hong Kong. A group of IT engineers, journalists and some other professionals planned to meet at a well-known local bar to talk about Google's pullout.

    However, their meeting spot had to be changed after the bar owner was summoned by police and told he wasn't allowed to operate that night. After their second bar was questioned by police, the group moved to a warehouse to discuss what Google's pullout meant to Chinese Internet users.

    Wen Yunchao, an outspoken Guangzhou-based blogger better known as "Beifeng," was part of the warehouse discussion and said they wanted to commemorate event. "It's a great loss to Google users. It's going to be very inconvenient for us to use Google now. But I admire and praise Google's action because they value morals more than profits."

    Tens of thousands of Google lovers expressed their anger and concern on Twitter, a social networking site they are able to use with the help of proxy servers and without Big Brother's censorship. Since Google's initial announcement in January, a group of Chinese Netizens started discussing Google's future on Twitter under a tag "Googlecn."

    Many posted outraged messages about the government's attempt to control the Internet. One user said the, "Chinese government has never abided by the Chinese Constitution, therefore they should pull out of China."

    Another one teased in a train conductor's tone: "Dear passengers of Train Harmonious, one of the passengers called Google has been kicked off the train because he didn't obey the rules. Now please pull down the curtain and you are not allowed to watch the scenery outside. Our next stop: Pyongyang." (This post may seem long, but written in Chinese characters, it fits the Twitter character limitations.) 

    VIDEO: China seethes as Google leaves

    Chinese backlash begins

    On the other hand, the Chinese-run media has been relentlessly attacking Google since it announced the pullout. China has accused Google of being responsible for spreading pornographic content and breaking its own written promises when it first entered the country in 2006.

    The State Council's Information Office swiftly responded to the announced pullout by saying, "This is totally wrong. We're uncompromisingly opposed to the politicization of commercial issues, and express our discontent and indignation to Google for its unreasonable accusations and conduct."

    Since the change, many of the state-run TV stations have invited experts on their shows to say that government censorship of information is a common practice everywhere else in the world. Chinese Web sites that feature discussion boards and comments have been ordered to delete pro-Google remarks and only the Xinhua News Agency (the Chinese government's official mouthpiece) version of reporting on Google's pullout can be published.

    China's Central TV (CCTV), the biggest state-run broadcaster in mainland China, even invited the founder of China's Great Firewall, Fang Binxing, to appear on a discussion program. Fang alleged that Google has always been using a self-censoring system, which he said operates in more than 180 countries to filter harmful information.

    And in sharp contrast to Twitter users' attachment and concern for Google, major Chinese Web sites have been inundated by angry comments about the search engine's departure from the mainland. "If you don't want to obey China's laws, fine, get the hell out!" has been a common refrain.

    Some sneeringly said that Google's pullout was a result of a commercial failure, instead of its unwillingness to cooperate with the government. "Google just can't operate in China anymore and I hope they will fail again in Hong Kong!" wrote one poster.

    Many others expressed their indifference, saying they only used Baidu.com, Google's largest local competitor in mainland China. http://www.baidu.com/

    "This bombardment on Google shows how much the Chinese government cares about Google's pullout. It's a heavy slap on their face otherwise they wouldn't have acted so fiercely," said Beifeng. "And this nationalist fighting back among the public will not last long, just as their reaction to the French (over their protest against control of Tibet)."

    Although Google has ceased to self-censor content to its Hong Kong site, users from mainland China cannot access some information.

    Users on the mainland who open www.google.com are automatically redirected to www.google.com.hk, instead of www.google.com.cn.

    But keyword searches censored by the Chinese government such as "Tibet independence," or "June 4," the term used for the Tiananmen Square protests in China, return messages that say "content cannot be displayed" and connections between the computer and Google are cut off for a few minutes.

    Twitter users have actively been discussing the latest developments and have noticed that even the family names of Chinese leaders like "Hu," "Wen," and "Xi" are being censored.

    Google's local partners in China also have begun gradually terminating their cooperation with the search company. Tom Online, which runs the popular Web portal Tom.com, has switched to Baidu.com for Internet searches from its site saying its agreement with Google has expired. China Unicom, China's second largest mobile wireless provider, announced it's going to remove Google search function from the handsets it developed in cooperation with Google. And Tianya.com, China's biggest bulletin board service, also said it's going to discontinue its cooperation with Google.

    As of Friday, none of Google's employees in Beijing had received notices of relocation or layoffs, but they likely are bracing for the worst.

    Related story: Navigating China's web of censors

  • A tale of two Hispaniolas

    PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti – Around midnight on a recent night, the dance hall at Hotel Olofsson's, one of Port au Prince's grand hotels, was still dark and quiet, like a funeral home.

    But 230 miles east in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, the noise was deafening at the Renaissance Jaragua Hotel. A 12-piece orchestra was warming up for a night of salsa, while gamblers poured in for the overnight shift at the adjacent casino. Neon lights were everywhere.

    Image: A youth washes his face with sewage water
    Jorge Saenz / AP
    A young Haitian washes his face with sewage water in a downtown street in Port-au-Prince, on Wednesday, March 24. 

    On Thursdays at Olofsson's, partygoers used to pack the hall to groove to the fusion of jazz and voodoo chants played by the group Ram. Now Thursday nights are like every night in Port-au- Prince – times of mourning in darkness, with only pockets of electricity, supplied by generators and car batteries. Virtually every business in Port-au-Prince has been affected by "bagay-la," Creole for "the thing": the devastating 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti on January 12.

    "I don't know when we'll play again," said Richard Morse, an American who has owned the Hotel Olofsson since the mid-'80s. He performs with Ram and also writes about Haitian current events.

    "We don't want to be the first to have a party after such a thing," he said. "Most of my hotel staff and band members are in the street. They've lost their homes and are living in tents."

    Despite sharing the island of Hispaniola, Haiti and Santo Domingo have been going in different directions for a long time and the aftermath of the earthquake has bought their divergent paths into sharp relief.

    Good old days in Port-au-Prince

    Port-au-Prince's Ibo Lele Hotel, Hotel Villa Creole and
    Olofsson's, are like ageing movie stars, landmark hotels that have become today's haunts for diplomats, journalists and Haiti's new elite: U.N. staffers and NGO workers. They are bubbles of surreal normalcy in the landscape of chaotic Port-au-Prince, a city of more than 3 million, where more than 1 million now live in the street or in hundreds of tent camps. The thousands of wild pigs and boars foraging across the city seem to have a better life.

    The hotels are like time capsules of better days in Haiti. Their heyday is a bygone era from the 1950s and '60s, when Papa Doc Duvalier was first elected president on a fleeting wave of populism. The era lives on in black and white photos on the walls of places like the Hotel Ibo Lele, which world class celebrities and African-American artists like Hazel Scott and Marian Anderson used to call their getaway.

    Olofsson's was originally a military hospital for U.S. troops during the U.S. occupation of Haiti from 1915 to 1934. Then it became a retreat for the jet-set crowd.

    Its suites are named after stars from yesteryear who stayed there like John Barrymore, Ann Margaret and Ramsay Clark. Graham Greene used to live on the grounds of Olofsson's and made it the setting for his novel, "The Comedians," which was made famous by the film of the same name starring Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor. Haiti in those days rivaled Havana as the Caribbean version of a sunny place for shady people.

    Image: Haitians mourn the earthquake victims
    SLIDESHOW: Haiti struggles to recover
     

    Now a distant memory
    But today the hotels' fading glamour offers little more than a jarring contradiction to the scenes of misery in Haiti. Children in tent camps trudging through waste-filled mud; mothers unable, or reluctant, to breastfeed out of superstitious fears that they will pass on their trauma to their infants; and women doing laundry in the dirty water on curbsides amidst the fumes of passing traffic. 

    But there are some glimpses of better conditions on Port-au-Prince, mostly among the international aid community.

    Next to a partly flooded tent camp, I caught a glimpse of a U.S. Army camp where a field had been neatly cleared and soldiers were playing rugby. I also saw some aid workers frolicking in a pool in bikinis at a hilltop hotel.

    Then there is the Montana Hotel; it boasted one of the best views of the city from the exclusive Petionville district. It once was the crown jewel of status and joie de vivre in Port-au-Prince, the salon of choice for people that mattered to Haiti's fragile existence, like U.S. officials and rich Haitian expatriates. Now it's a tomb, with the remains of at least 24 guests, some thought to be American, buried in the wreckage.

    Unlike the suited, well-coiffed security types, who act as the welcoming committee outside the five-star hotels in Santo Domingo, at the Montana there were young soldiers of the 82nd Airborne, guarding the gates of the ruins like a checkpoint in Baghdad. 

    "You have to ask the U.S. Embassy for permission," explained an Army Ranger, politely asking us not to film and to leave.

    But attempts to ban filming at a place like the Montana are a little pointless, because they can't conceal the reality of what the quake really represents to many, something that goes beyond just physical damage. 

    "This place is run and owned by a few people and it takes an event such as this earthquake, that I call "Samson," to expose what Haiti's become. Now we can start over," said Morse bluntly. 

    Besides the wreckage of the Montana, he ticked off a list of other heavily damaged buildings like the Presidential Palace, Parliament, the main courthouse and the central prison as examples of power and past corruption that were crippled by the quake. Morse compared the destruction to the Biblical wrath of Samson who tore down the walls of a temple.

    Msnbc.com's special coverage of Haiti's amputees: 'Living with one leg is living'

    The cathedral in Santo Domingo
    Erika Santelices / AFP-Getty Images file
    The cathedral in Santo Domingo, seen on Feb. 16, 2010. 

    Role reversal in the DR


    But the scene in the Dominican Republic, Haiti's Spanish colonial cousin, is decidedly different.

    The relationship between the two countries is the greatest and most bitter contradiction of life on the island of Hispaniola. A 40-minute flight aboard a 19-seater Tortuga Air flight takes you from the hell of Port-au-Prince to a city, also numbering 3 million, that works and still sizzles: Santo Domingo.  

    Salsa is the local currency and dialect. Just breathing the air is different.

    The Dominican Republic took the right exit leading to development. Haiti was on that same road. Both had their struggles with democracy, dictators and foreign occupation, and were on the same path to progress. But Haiti's rulers and wealthy families were weighted with more corruption, acting like drunk drivers for decades, so Haiti missed the turn, instead plunging the country into a ditch made deeper by the quake.

    "I don't know why everyone is so shocked by what they've seen, of how people are living [in Haiti] because of this, when they shouldn't be," Morse said. "It was bad enough before this – people cooking in the street with their three pieces of wood. Now they've got a sheet of plastic and they're not complaining. They're better off," he added with a sense of sarcasm.

    The U.N. ranks the Dominican Republic 90 in its development index of 182 countries, ahead of countries like Jordan and even South Africa. Haiti ranks 144. Among African countries only Chad, Mali, and Niger, are worse off.

    Life expectancy in the Dominican Republic is nearly 74; in Haiti it's 61. And the literacy rate is far higher in Dominican Republic at 87 percent, versus 53 percent of Haiti's population who can read and write. In Haiti, 80 percent live below the poverty line of $2 day. And that was before the quake. 

    Bells ring in Santo Domingo
    But only a few decades ago, the Dominican Republic was the poorer, jealous cousin, nursing an historical grudge against its neighbor to the west. Haiti actually ruled the entire island of Hispaniola for 22 years following the success of its slave revolt against France in 1804, and tried to impose French on the Spanish side of the island.

    Today the Dominican Republic could gloat, but not without a sense of sadness.

    "Nobody knew about us," exclaimed Maria del Carmen Obijo, a Dominican businesswoman, while driving proudly through the posh Anacaona neighborhood and past the newest mall, the Acropolis.

    "In the 1970s, Haiti had a higher standard of living and was more popular. My mother always went to Port-au-Prince to buy French perfume," said Obijo. "Every week, wealthy people would go there to buy the perfumes, wine and Champagne. We couldn't import those things. It was always Haiti. Club Med even opened its first club in the Caribbean there [in 1975]. Now look at us!" 

    Before the quake the Dominican Republic was already Haiti's lifeline. On Mondays and Wednesdays, the Dominican Republic opened its three main border crossings to allow Haitians to flock to the markets to buy rice, beans, eggs, meat and clothes. Even before the quake, Haiti had to import 51 percent of its food, including 80 percent of its rice needs.

    In the historic center of Santo Domingo, a visitor could be forgiven for comparing the vast plaza at the end of Calle El Conde with St Mark's in Venice. Tourists are only outnumbered by pigeons.

    It all seems very Old World and it is. Christopher Columbus landed in the New World not far from Santo Domingo in 1492 and his statue stands in the middle of the square with pigeons draped on his arms like a clothesline.

    The palace Columbus used to call home is only blocks away. And the Cathedrale Santa Maria Primada de America still stands and is the oldest, working cathedral in North America. Guides lead groups of shutterbug tourists inside the cathedral that was built in 1505. 

    Port- au-Prince has its own age-old cathedrals to rival Santo Domingo's, but now they are graveyards. The Holy Trinity Cathedral in Port-au-Prince is known for its murals of biblical scenes with black characters. But on the day we visited, it was being used as an outhouse by a naked man casually taking a shower, using a pail of water.

    The giant cathedral bells now only chime in Santo Domingo, their sound mixed with the salsa music from nearby CD stores. That same music throbs at night on the dance floor at hotels like the Jaragua while couples do dips, turns and the tango twist with fanatic precision in outfits right out of GQ and Vogue. Oscar de la Renta, one of the favorite sons of the Dominican Republic, would approve.

    A sad dance

    On a similar night in Haiti, I found a different kind of dance.

    Fabienne Jean and 13 members of her family were living by the side of a road full of potholes, near the airport and the small hotel where we were staying. They were sleeping there in the open air.

    Fabienne, one of Haiti's most famous dancers, was in darkness until a passing car threw some light on her shadowy figure. But she was smiling and dancing. She silently stroked the stump that was once her right leg, lost to the quake. She said she was dancing to keep from going crazy.

    She dreams that one day she'll dance again with the new leg promised to her by a U.S. prosthetics maker. She might be back on her feet long before Haiti ever is.

    Karl Bostic is an NBC News Producer based in London. He spent six weeks reporting from Haiti. He spent time in Santo Domingo on the way in and out of Haiti.

  • ‘The Confession’ tackles priest abuse

    MAINZ, Germany – "The Confession," a play that recently opened in the German city of Regensburg, could not be more timely or its location more symbolic.  

    The play tells the story of an orphaned choir boy who was abused by his priest, and later, as an adult, abuses his own child. In order to protect his son from the same destiny, the main character is determined to kill himself and his boy. But first, he confronts the priest, his former guardian and tormentor, in a confession that culminates in a disturbing dispute between the two men.

    "When we planned this small production a year ago, we could not have imagined that it would be such a fitting sign of the times, and we have been overwhelmed by the attention it has received recently," said Friederike Bernau, a spokesperson for the Regensburg theater.  

    The play openly addresses the problem of child abuse behind church walls – a highly sensitive topic that is currently rocking Germany, with much of the controversy centering on the city just outside the theater's doors.

    At the renowned Regensburg choir, as well as three Catholic schools in the diocese, there have been allegations of sexual and physical abuse. The Regensburg diocese announced Monday that four priests and two nuns are under investigation for sexual abuse; most of the alleged incidents occurred in the 1970s, though one was in 1984, the diocese said. 

    The allegations of sexual abuse in Regensburg have attracted particular attention because Pope Benedict XVI's brother, Msgr. Georg Ratzinger, directed the choir there from 1964 to 1994, raising questions about whether he would have known about sexual abuse at a school linked to the choir. The pope's brother has said that he knew nothing about the sexual abuse, but apologized for slapping students during his tenure. 

    So far, more than 250 people are alleged to have been abused at church-run schools in recent decades, German media reports say. 

    Image: The Pope and Archbiship Robert Zo
    AFP - Getty Images
    This handout picture released by The Vatican on March 12 shows Pope Benedict XVI speaking to the head of Germany's Roman Catholic Church, Archbishop Robert Zollitsch of Freiburg, during a private audience at The Vatican. 

    Shocked audience

    The subject matter of the "The Confession" hits home among the play's cast members. Miko Greza, the 60-year-old actor who plays the role of the priest in the play, has said he was a victim of abuse. 

    "I know what we are performing here and what we are talking about in this play. I have experienced it myself," Greza told "Bayern 2," a local Bavarian radio station during a recent interview about the play. Greza declined to discuss his personal experience with abuse any further during a phone interview with NBC News.

    Michael Haake, who portrays the father in the play, said the acting is a challenge and emotionally difficult. "We fully engage in the role and live through the conflict of the characters," said Haake, 43.  

    Both actors said the audience's reaction to the play is quite different from any other productions they have performed in before: On most nights, there is very little or no applause at the final curtain, which leaves them facing an auditorium full of dismayed viewers.

    "In other plays I look forward to the final applause with a grin and a smile, but here I remain quite serious and don't really feel happy," said Greza. "We have received e-mails from people, who afterwards apologized for not applauding at the end." But he was quick to add, "It is the right play at the right time."

    His co-actor Haake agreed, "The present debate shows that we are on the right path with our play and that we are presenting something without making a judgment."

    People who have seen the two-man play say that it definitely hits a sensitive nerve.

    "It was shocking, I felt frozen afterwards because the small auditorium, like a church, creates a very intimate atmosphere and puts you very close to the strong performance of the actors," said Sigrid Grabmeier, a Regensburg resident and member of a church reform group called "We Are Church."

    "It was a very moving play because I had not been confronted with this topic in this way before," said Eberhard Duenninger, 75, who went to school in Regensburg and grew up in what he says was a "very conservative Catholic family." He added, "At times, it felt like a nightmare, very disturbing." 

    Criticism mounting
    While not an overwhelmingly Catholic nation, Germany is the pope's homeland – Pope Benedict XVI, formerly Joseph Ratzinger, was born and educated in the predominantly Catholic state of Bavaria and was the archbishop of Munich.

    The pope himself has become the subject of controversy because a priest accused of molesting boys was allowed to transfer to an archdiocese overseen by him as then Archbishop Joseph Ratzinger. The priest was eventually allowed to return to pastoral work, including work with children, and was later convicted of sexual abuse. The Munich diocese insists that the decision to reassign the pedophile priest to pastoral work was made by Ratzinger's then deputy, without any involvement by the future pope.

    The scandal is taking its toll among Germany's Catholic flock. A poll recently published by Germany's Emnid Institute found that 71 percent of Germans believe the abuse scandal has damaged the credibility of the Catholic Church. Eighty-six percent of those polled contend the Vatican has failed to explain the allegations of abuse in church-run schools and institutions sufficiently.

    "The recent increase in the number of people who are leaving the church clearly shows that the image of the Catholic Church has been damaged," said Heidemarie Tonner, another Regensburg resident. "In my opinion, the hierarchical structures in the Catholic church are no longer compatible with our modern-day perception of life," added Tonner

    Despite an official apology to victims of child abuse by priests from Archbishop Robert Zoellitsch, the head of Germany's Catholic Church, many are still looking to Rome for more.

    "I would expect the pope to address the German Catholics directly and more quickly," said Wolfgang Troidl, a 45-year-old public school teacher who also lives in Regensburg. 

    "The renewal process will not happen quickly, but I can see that the dams are bursting," Troidl added.

    NBC News' Heinrich Walling contributed to this report from Regensburg, Germany.

  • Afghan women confront deadly task: Childbirth

    HERAT, Afghanistan – Even for a country that generates grim statistics, this one looms large: One in eight women in Afghanistan dies during childbirth.  

    Even more tragic is that the overwhelming majority of these deaths — 80 percent, according to the United Nations — are easily preventable.

    "It's not easy for women to have health care," said Dr. Qudsia El-Yar, a 41-year-old gynecologist who works at the Herat Maternity Hospital in western Afghanistan. 

    She proceeded to rattle off a list of factors that conspire to give the country the world's second-highest maternal mortality rate (after Sierra Leone). At the top of the list is poverty. Scores of rural communities lack the most basic health facilities. Moreover, many rural villages are so remote that it takes hours, sometimes days, to reach the nearest clinic or doctor's office.

    VIDEO: Teaching Afghan midwives to save lives

    Poverty also means illiteracy and a lack of education. Many people, particularly in the rural areas, don't realize they need health care or don't know how to get it.

    A strong tradition of early marriages also compounds the problem. Child marriages lead to young pregnancies, and Dr. Qudsia, as she is known locally, said she regularly sees pregnant girls under 16. At that age, their bodies are not ready for reproduction, and often they die during labor.

    Another factor is Afghan society, which is predominantly conservative Muslim. Women, especially in the rural areas, don't have much of a say over their health. "Especially the young women," said Dr. Qudsia. "They are not the decision-maker in the family. The decision-maker is the man, and also the mother-in-law."

    Furthermore, women in conservative communities are forbidden from leaving the home without a male companion, even to see a health expert. If they can seek health care, they are only permitted to consult female health practitioners – who are still very rare in the country.

    Challenges related to the last factor were particularly acute during the Taliban era. Dr. Qudsia described that time as being extremely repressive for professional women such as herself. "It was very difficult for women, especially for nurses, midwives and female doctors, to come to the hospitals," she said. "We couldn't do our jobs."

    So a solution has been to train midwives to help curb the number of deaths due to childbirth – a process considered elsewhere to be among the most natural in the world, but in Afghanistan one of the most dangerous things a woman can do.

    'Two lives at stake'
    Midwifery training programs have sprouted around major population centers in Afghanistan during the last four to five years; one of the earliest is the Midwifery Education Program (MWEP) run by World Vision, an international relief and development agency. 

    Adrienne Mong / NBC News
    Health experts say poverty, illiteracy, and a conservative society keep many women in Afghanistan from getting direct access to health care.

    The program – under way in Herat and Ghor provinces – is designed to train Afghan women to become qualified midwives within two years.

    Wendy Olebeng Tsiane, a registered midwife from Bostwana, arrived in Herat in 2009 to oversee World Vision's midwifery program. She was shocked by the conditions she saw while traveling around the province, notably in the rural villages. "In most cases, we find there are major complications of pregnancy or major complications of delivery, and they end up dying," she said.

    And it's not just mothers. Babies die, too. In the first three months of 2009, out of the 421 admissions at Herat Maternity Hospital, 138 wound up with stillborn infants.

    Since its inception in 2004, the program has graduated 171 midwives. They have gone on to work at health facilities in Herat City as well as Ghor Province, where in many villages, women's health care never existed.

    And although the number of graduates might sound small, Afghanistan, with an estimated population of around 28 million, has just over 2,000 midwives. The U.N. says at least four times that number of midwives are needed to cover the most basic needs across the country. No easy feat given that 86 percent of women here are illiterate, according to UNICEF, let alone able to train for a medical license.

    The current MWEP class of 40 young women is midway through the course at the Institute of Health Sciences and at the Herat Maternity Hospital, where on average 1,400 to 1,700 babies a month are delivered in a city of roughly 2 million. The hospital provides the trainees with valuable hands-on experience.

    "The midwife is very important, because there are two lives at stake – the mother and the child," said Freshtah Sadat, a 22-year-old trainee in the midwifery program. Sadat, who comes from Herat, saw a cousin and an aunt die in childbirth "because they did not have prenatal care," she said.

    It's this kind of experience that motivates young women like Sadat. Another Herati student, 20-year-old Farahnaz Gul Mohammedi, lost an aunt under similar circumstances. And a cousin's first baby died only days after he was born. 

    Mohammedi's dream is to "to see mothers with their newborn babies, hand in hand and healthy."  

    Saved lives
    On the morning we visited the maternity hospital, Mohammedi was checking the vital signs of three prematurely born babies in the neonatal unit started up by World Vision. 

    One of the infants, Almeh, was born at 32 weeks. Her mother, Somaia, was trying to breastfeed but to no avail. Small and thin-faced, the 25-year-old woman was still weak from her pregnancy. Almeh was her fifth child. 

    Image: Herat Maternity Hospital
    Adrienne Mong / NBC News
    The Herat Maternity Hospital delivers on average 1,500 babies a month.

    "Two of my babies were born in the hospital," said Somaia. "It's better, because everything is available, like medicine and doctors. If I give birth at home, it's not a clean environment. I could lose a lot of blood, and I could die."

    Another mother, Soraya, also praised the neonatal unit and its staff.  The 31-year-old was already a  mother to three boys when she became pregnant with daughter Saetayesh last year, but complications caused her to give birth two months early. The baby weighed only 1.8 pounds.

    "They put the baby into a machine to keep her alive. I didn't want to see her because I thought she might not survive," said Soraya. "But she grew slowly day by day."  When the midwives finally let her hold Saetayesh, the mother cried. "I couldn't believe it," she said. "I was so happy."

    The morning we met Soraya, Saetayesh was a healthy, vibrant little girl who walked confidently and swung from laughter to tears and back, just like any other healthy child.

    Keeping going


    Having helped to save lives, the midwifery program faces a different challenge now – money. The MWEP has been funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), but Tsiane, who runs the program, said there has been no firm financial commitment yet for the next round of trainees.

    At stake is the fate of not just future students but also graduates. World Vision has been raising money to help provide salaries for the latter until Afghanistan's Ministry of Public Health has the budget to pay the midwives for working at facilities like the Herat Maternity Hospital.

    World Vision is trying to raise $171,700 by early January to provide ongoing support, supplies and training for 20 midwives for one year.  So far, it has raised about $35,000.

    For the women of the Herat Maternity Hospital, the midwifery program is critical. Dr. Saida Said, chief of the hospital, put it succinctly: "It is important for us to have a healthy mother and a healthy child and in total we have a healthy community in Afghanistan."

    For those interested in donating to World Vision, please visit their Web site,

    www.worldvision.org, or call 1-888-56-CHILD and say you want to give to World Vision's Maternal & Child Health Project in Western Afghanistan, or Project #192582. 

  • Unplugged in Urumqi

    URUMQI, China – For quite some time, I had been looking forward to travelling back to Xinjiang province, one of my favorite destinations in China, for a reporting trip.

    But I also had a sense of trepidation. 

    The predominantly Muslim province has been an Internet-free zone since riots broke out last July between the ethnic Han Chinese and the minority Uighurs. Provincial authorities say 197 people died in clashes on the streets of Urumqi, the provincial capital, in one of China's worst incidents of ethnic strife in recent memory.    

    So while everyone's debating what a China without Google might look like if the Internet giant quits operations in the country, the 20 million-odd residents of Xinjiang province have had to contend without any Internet access for the past eight months.

    Adrienne Mong / NBC News
    A large banner welcomes visitors to "Urumqi State High-tech zone." Maybe its not so "high-tech" after all.

    And I wondered what it would be like to be off-line for more than just a couple of hours.

    Cut off


    "Ah sorry, madam, there is no Internet," the woman at our hotel confirmed by phone when I called ahead of our arrival.

    For once my Blackberry stayed inside my pocket. The upper right corner stared back tantalizingly: "edge."  Which in Blackberry connectivity-speak meant I could make phone calls, but that I had no data service.

    In fact, some Internet is available to the general public. Since late December, there has been a rollout so gradual that some folks on Twitter dubbed it the "Chinese water torture: Xinjiang Internet opens up – very, very, very s l o w l y."

    The first Web sites to be restored were two Chinese state-media outlets, Xinhua and the People's Daily. They were followed by watered-down versions of two leading Chinese Web portals, Sina and Sohu. Last month, 27 more Web sites were restored.

    Internet cafes are still largely closed, but what really puzzled me was how any business was getting done. Fax? Telex? 

    An ethnic Chinese resident in Urumqi explained that his company – a sizeable Chinese venture with partners in Europe and the United States – had Internet and normal email services. All companies had to do, he said, was apply to authorities for the service. This did not automatically grant every employee in the company Internet access; they had to register with their managers in order to be able to use it. Once they did, however, they had the same Internet services available to the rest of the country.

    Nevertheless, there seemed to be no registration option for travelers. At an international hotel chain, a letter from hotel management greeted us on arrival: "Please be kindly advised that all Internet service in Xinjiang is restricted to local Internet sites only, due to the current situation in Xinjiang." 

    During the National People's Congress in Beijing earlier this month, provincial officials from Urumqi announced that full Internet service would be restored shortly. 

    But those assurances were qualified. One Xinjiang functionary was quoted in the China Daily as saying, "Authorities should focus on managing the Internet more effectively when the service is fully resumed, so it won't be used by criminals as a tool of communication."

    Adrienne Mong / NBC News
    Is it the Uyghur population the authorities want to control or the Chinese?

    Keeping a tight lid on who?


    The Internet restrictions have been the central feature of an overall clampdown on communications in Xinjiang since July. 

    International calls and text message services to the region were only restored in January. But international calling cards have a 30-minute limit, and there's a daily cap on how many texts one can send per day (answer: 20 – after being cut off on our Blackberries, we suddenly found ourselves keeping close count). 

    "Everything we keep online – our email addresses, our phone numbers, you lose that, you can't access it," Josh Summers, an American teacher, told me. 

    Summers, who lived in Xinjiang for four years and has just returned to the United States for an extended break, kept an informative blog about his experience on "Xinjiang, Far West China."    

    "For the people who are minorities, who are most likely to have families outside China – in Turkey or Kazakhstan, for example – not having international phone lines meant that you couldn't contact your families."

    But it's questionable whether the targets of Internet control are just Xinjiang's main ethnic minority, the Uighurs. Chinese state-media reports have blamed last summer's violence on Uighur separatist groups, but there's another demographic that could be worrying the authorities.

    "Some of it was the Uighurs," said a U.S. official, who wished to remain anonymous. "But I think the real reason was that they wanted to stop the Han Chinese from organizing."

    Last September, an estimated 10,000 ethnic Chinese marched on the streets of Urumqi to protest against the local government's handling of the July incidents. Witnesses were quoted as saying they felt let down by authorities, who had failed to protect them. Some placards went so far as to call for the ouster of Wang Lequan, the powerful Communist Party chief who has run Xinjiang for more than 15 years – longer than any other provincial party secretary.

    But from the surface today it was hard to tell any of this.

    Underlying tensions


    The Chinese we met in Urumqi, for the most part, insisted that everything was back to normal. (Unlike their counterparts elsewhere in China, who still express alarm about the region. Whenever we mentioned our upcoming trip to local Chinese, their reaction was uniform, "Oh, but it's still so dangerous there. Aren't you worried?")

    On the surface, in Urumqi, the "back to normal" claims seem to be well-founded and there was nothing to suggest anything untoward. No extra police, no military – apart from one little shack on a main thoroughfare.

    But some indications do suggest that all is not well – for example, the extra layer of security taken on by individual businesses. 

    Our hotel had a new machine to screen bags. An office we went to film on the outskirts of the capital had a stack of electric cattle prods lying on a windowsill, and they kept the front door chained shut. I saw none of this kind of concern at the height of pre-Summer Olympic security preparations in Xinjiang in 2008.

    "There's no actual sense that something is unsafe," said Summers. "But if you talk to a Uighur person or a Han person, they'll say they're afraid to go down to that restaurant or that area because it's Uighur or Han."

  • Corruption is Iraq's latest enemy

    BEIRUT, Lebanon – I remember it was an almost moonless night in Baghdad seven years ago when the war began. 

    I was in my room at the Palestine Hotel, a shabby state-run tower with balconies facing the Tigris River. There were just a few western journalists who'd decided to stick it out. We were all nervous. President Bush had called on foreigners to leave, and specifically mentioned reporters.  Our safety, he said, wasn't guaranteed. No target would be off-limits.

    Bush had given Saddam Hussein and his sons 48 hours to leave Iraq. The deadline had just past. Saddam had made it clear: He wasn't going anywhere. 

    VIDEO: U.S. troops discuss current role in Iraq

    We also were worried about how the Iraqi government would react to the invasion. Would the regime arrest American reporters in Baghdad and use us as human shields? Would Saddam use chemical weapons on the Americans? Where would the clouds of chemical gas blow? Would there be riots in the streets? 

    A thousand scenarios – all of them ending badly – swirled though my head. I couldn't sleep. I don't think any of us could. We were bracing for the American assault and felt like passengers in a car about to slam into a wall. We expected the invasion to begin in the next couple of days when the last sliver of the moon disappeared.

    But the bombs came early. The first explosions were several miles from my hotel, but they were still loud. Seconds later, I heard the yattering of Iraqi anti-aircraft guns shooting blindly into the sky. These guns were close and shook the glass of my balcony door. I watched the "tracer rounds" cut through the night sky as air raid sirens whined across the city. 

    It was a surprise attack. The Americans had received intelligence that Saddam was at a meeting. The attack was designed to kill the Iraqi president and end the war before it began. 

    The attack, of course, missed Saddam. 

    (FILES) A picture taken on March 20, 200
    Ramzi Haidar / AFP/Getty Images
    A picture taken on March 20, 2003 shows smoke billowing after a missile hit the planning ministry in Baghdad.

    I remember thinking to myself that the assault wasn't that bad. It wasn't terrifying. The city didn't shake. There was a lot of noise, explosions, gunfire and air raid sirens, but in the morning Baghdad was quiet again.  "If this it, I can handle it. No problem," I assured myself. 

    The real assault, the full furry of the American invasion – the "shock and awe" – would come two days later.

    Those early days now seem like ancient history. Iraq has undergone several revolutionary transformations since the war began – and I don't think the final war is over yet. Here are the stages I have witnessed since my night of nervousness at the Palestine Hotel:

    The first war (March – April 2003): 

    Led by U.S. Army General Tommy Franks, this military assault toppled Saddam Hussein's government. It was a technical success, handled with exceptional military skill.

    The second war (2003-2004): 

    This was an American attempt to create a new government and was handled badly. The U.S. administration in Iraq under Paul Bremer disbanded the Iraqi army, empowered Iranian-backed Shiite parties and began a sectarian power-sharing system in which Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis were allotted authority based on old estimates of their relative populations. 

    Image: Children play on swings in a park in Baghdad
    Ahmed Jadallah / Reuters
    Children play on swings in a park in Baghdad March 3, 2010. 

    The third war (2004-2006):

    The Sunni insurgency. Sunnis favored under Saddam's government were increasingly ostracized and isolated – basically punished by Shiite political parties. Iran's influence grew dramatically. Al-Qaida militants moved in to western Iraq to incite and help fellow Sunni Arabs fight the U.S.-backed Shiite government.

    The fourth war (2006-2007):

    The Shiites hit back. Al-Qaida-led Sunni insurgents carried out so many atrocities that Shiite militias, some backed by the government, started to fight back. A civil war erupted and bodies piled up in hospital morgues. Neighborhoods were ethnically cleansed. Two to three thousand Iraqis were killed every month. Between 2 and 3 million Iraqis fled their homes, many left the country.

    The fifth war (2007-2008):

    The American "surge." The U.S. military changed its strategy and added extra troops. The United States stopped the civil war.

    The sixth war (2008-today):

    The war of corruption. Iraq's political parties used the relative stability created by the surge to enrich and empower themselves, stealing from government projects big and small. Iraq is now considered one of the most corrupt nations on earth. The political parties, still mostly based on sectarian lines, are unpopular among most Iraqis.

    The seventh war (today - ?):

    The war of America's legacy in Iraq. U.S. combat troops will leave in August. And all American forces are scheduled to withdraw by the end of 2011. But what will happen to Iraq when U.S. troops leave?

    Iraq certainly has a new reality today than it did under Saddam Hussein. A dictatorship has been replaced by a corrupt sectarian political system. 

    Under Saddam, Iraq had a callous and at times evil government, but the state was firmly part of the Arab world and had a clear national and secular identity. What has been created in its place is a country of power-hungry political parties based on ethnic and religious divides, and a nation much more in the orbit of (non-Arab) Iran. 

    Although Iraq has frequent elections, there is very little true democracy because most of the parties do not believe in democratic principles. Elections are merely tools the parties have accepted as a means to determine which self-interested group gets the biggest piece of the pie to steal from. If the political parties begin fighting each other, Iraq's civil war could return. (For more read Engel's recent blog "Iraq's politics: an explosive chess game." )

    Iraqi vendors pull textile-loaded cart i
    Joseph Eid / AFP/Getty Images
    Iraqi vendors pull textile-loaded cart in central Baghad's Safafir street on March 10, 2010.

    Life for regular Iraqis


    I am often asked about the lives of average Iraqis. Have conditions improved? It depends on what you use as a starting point. 

    Are Iraqis happier, richer and freer than they were under Saddam Hussein? Undoubtedly they are. 

    Are they better off today than two years ago when Sunnis and Shiite death squads were slitting throats in the street? Certainly, the answer is yes. 

    But do Iraqis have a stable government that people in Baghdad believe will bring them out of what has been a dark and tumultuous period? Not yet.

    Lebanonization

    In many ways the political system in Iraq today is similar to the one in Lebanon, where I just arrived on my way out of Baghdad. 

    At first, that could seem like an optimistic forecast. Beirut is now a beautiful city with a fantastic nightlife. I'm writing this article from a hotel overlooking the Mediterranean. The hotel is completely booked.  If I look outside my balcony to the right, I can see a marina filled with yachts. To my right, the skyline is crowded with cranes building condos for foreign investors. 

    But many of my colleagues remember Lebanon during its civil war in the 1980s. Lebanese political parties, like those in Iraq today, are mainly divided among religious and ethnic lines.  During Lebanon's civil war, the parties – Shiites, Sunnis, Christians, Druze and more – fought each other until Beirut was a smoldering ruin. 

    It took the Lebanese 15 years to pull themselves out of the internecine mess. Between 150,000 and 250,000 Lebanese are estimated to have died in the civil war, a huge number considering Lebanon only has a population of around 4 million. 

    Iraq now faces a similar threat. If Iraq is lucky, its political parties will mature and Iraq will skip the civil war Lebanon went through and go right to the Beirut of today with its white sailboats and crowded cafes. 

    If Iraq is unlucky, however, the battles among the political parties in Baghdad could easily become violent and Iraq could be plagued with reoccurring bouts of sectarian violence, mini-civil wars that last hours, days or months, but continue to break out like an uncured rash.

    How Iraq's "seventh war" develops, and America's legacy in the country, remains an open question.

    Related links:
    Newsweek: America's wars
    Little fanfare for 7th anniversary of war in Iraq

    U.S. troops: Time will tell in Iraq  

    Richard Engel has been reporting from Iraq since before the U.S. in 2003 and has written two books: "A Fist In The Hornet's Nest: On the Ground in Baghdad Before, During and After the War" and "War Journal: My Five Years in Iraq."

  • Mexico drug violence mars spring break fun

    ACAPULCO, Mexico – On the surface, the beach town here is idyllic.

    Crystal blue waters. Song birds with bright yellow wings darting from tree to tree.

    And then there are the American college students.

    They're tanning, tossing Frisbees and in some cases stumbling along the strip here with Corona beers in hand.

    VIDEO: Killings dampen spring break fun in Acapulco

    But what seems like paradise has been invaded by the harsh reality of drug cartel violence that has spilled from Mexico's underworld to the nation's streets.

    Just this past weekend, nearly 50 people were killed nationwide in apparent drug-gang violence – 13 people were killed in and around Acapulco, with four victims found beheaded. 
     
    Three people with ties to the U.S. Consulate were killed Saturday in Ciudad Juarez, a city along the Texas border more than 1,000 miles from here. The victims – who were chased down in broad daylight while returning home from a child's birthday party – are believed to have been mistakenly targeted by drug cartel hit men.

    Drug violence is endemic in Mexico. The casualty numbers sound like those from a conventional war. Fifty uniformed police officers murdered in just three days; 2,009 people killed since the beginning of the year. And many of the assassinations carry a brutal cartel trademark: beheading.

    Still, an estimated 10,000 American college students will come to Acapulco – drawn by MTV's annual spring break production, and by lax enforcement of drinking laws.

    "It's definitely on your mind, but I think I feel pretty safe with the military and the police all around the hotels," said Amber Hay, on break from Los Angles.

    "We're trying to have a good time, me and my friends," said Alex Warren, a student from Indiana University. "We're trying to stick in groups and at nighttime, we're trying to make sure that even though the clubs are far away, we're not trying to venture off from the touristy area."

    The state government, admitting it can do little to curb the violence, is worried about how the surge in violence is cutting into already low tourist levels. By some estimates, just half as many Americans visited Acapulco in 2009 as in the year before. In an effort to calm fears, authorities in Acapulco are flooding the tourist strip, known as the "Golden Zone," with police.

    Dozens of police on foot, motor scooters and dune buggies are now stationed around and along the beach of Playa Suites, Acapulco's main hotel hosting the Spring Break parties. Authorities are advising the students to stay safe by keeping their partying close to the tourist zone. So far it's working.

  • Thai protesters take ‘red’ theme to extremes

     BANGKOK, Thailand – When I described to a friend the scene of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra kneeling down to kiss the ground upon his return to Thailand in 2008, after having been ousted by a military coup, she commented that Thai politics was "such a drama."

    When Red Shirt protesters poured jugs of their own blood in front of government buildings over the last two days, to demand new elections, I thought of her and wondered what she would make of it. 

    Image: Thai riot policemen stand in a pool of blood in Thailand
    Christophe Archambault / AFP - Getty Images

    Thai riot policemen stand in a pool of blood after red-shirted protesters spilled their own blood at Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's residence as part of an anti-government protest in Bangkok on Wednesday.

    The blood-spilling began after more than 100,000 demonstrators in red attire gathered in Bangkok on Sunday to demand that Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva dissolve parliament and call new elections by Monday. His refusal prompted the protestors to announce that they would collect their own blood and splash it at government headquarters, which made a lot of people say, "Eew!"

    Thai Red Cross officials warned people about the health risks and suggested that the blood could be better used for life saving efforts instead. Still thousands of red-shirted protesters – from monks to politicians – waited in long lines to have their arms pricked by volunteer nurses and doctors over the last few days.

    "I wasn't afraid to give my blood. The process looked perfectly safe to me," said Sang Hasuk, 34, after donating his blood. "Many people went hysterical about using clean needles and hepatitis and HIV, but for democracy I can sacrifice anything."

    First yellow, now red 

    Color-coded political rallies are no longer new or uncommon to residents of Thailand. (For more read "Thailand's Political Maze – A Beginner's Guide" from NBC's Ian Williams). 

    First there were the Yellow Shirts – opponents of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra – who were mostly made up of Bangkok's middle class and elites. Their street protests helped topple Thaksin and two consecutive prime ministers connected to him.

    The color has now switched to red.

    The Red Shirt protesters are supporters of Thaksin and other activists who oppose the 2006 military coup that ousted him for alleged corruption and abuse of power. Many of the protesters come from the impoverished north and northeast. They believe the military and ruling elites conspired to help Abhisit come to power.

    The Red Shirts have been adamant about keeping their rally peaceful after anti-government riots turned violent last April and left two people dead and more than 120 injured.  

    In this bloody, yet peaceful, campaign, the Red Shirts aim to draw one million cubic centimeters of blood (264 gallons).

    The meaning of it all has been widely discussed on the streets and online – whether it was black magic performed to inspire awe and fear among the demonstrators or just a new PR gimmick. 

    Analysts said the Red Shirts are losing steam and resorting to shock effects while figuring out what's next. But whatever it is, it's certainly getting attention. The press has gone into a frenzy covering the bloody act live, almost in a reality show style.

    Mixed reaction
    A caravan of protesters in pick-up trucks and on motorcycles paralyzed Sukhumvit Road, home to expatriates and wealthy Thais, on their way to Abhisit's house Wednesday, a day after they performed the same ritual in front of his office. They honked and cheered as they marched on under pouring rain.

    People in the neighborhood, however, showed a mixed response. Hotel staff looked on coldly as a young protester shouted, "Abhisit get the hell out," while two massage parlor ladies enthusiastically waved red heart-shaped pillows at them.

    Abhisit has been sleeping at a safe house inside army headquarters, so his residence was empty when the protesters smeared his fence with blood. Some hurled bags of blood and a few other bags that looked suspiciously like human waste, also known as the Red Shirts' "biological weapon."

    Photographers were careful not to get splattered. One red-shirted man staggered out of the crowd and vomited as the pungent smell of blood penetrated the air.

    "It may be kind of silly – this spilling of blood – but it will remind him [Abhisit] that he is walking on the blood of the people," said Priyanunt Rojanasakchai, a Red Shirt supporter.

    Despite the demonstrator's efforts, sanitation workers in biohazard clothing were waiting patiently for their turn to clean the puddle of blood on the ground.

    Suthatip Mahanak, an employee of a spa near Abhisit's compound, said she used to be afraid to leave the spa when there was a rally. But over time she has gotten used to it.

    "I know you can protest in a democratic system, but it's been a few years now with this yellow shirts and red shirts," she said wearily. "I just want everyone to give it a break. I want Thailand to move on."

  • Banged-up Beckham has England in a tizzy

    LONDON – Britain has been talking about just one story in recent days: Would David Beckham be able to bend it again in time for the soccer World Cup in South Africa? 

    Image: David Beckham on crutches
    Paolo Bona / Reuters
    David Beckham arrives at the airport in Milan on Monday on his way to Finland for surgery.

    Since the news broke Sunday that Beckham had ruptured his Achilles tendon while playing for the Italian team AC Milan, discussion of Beckham's ankle has dominated both news channels and sport radio stations.

    All have been reporting constant updates on his visit to a special sports injury clinic in Finland for surgery and speaking to any medical expert who could talk on whether Beckham might pull through. Even British Prime Minister Gordon Brown sent Beckham a get-well message, according to Brown's spokesman, Simon Lewis. 

    By Monday evening, despite declaring the operation a success, the surgeon said it would be months before he could play again.

    "Finnished" was the headline in the Sun, a popular British tabloid. The "exclusive" article quoted a friend of Beckham's saying he had been crying and was in "deep shock" about the injury. The Times of London eulogized Beckham, describing him as a "cultural icon who came to define the beautiful game.'' 

    Been here before

    That said, the attention being given to Beckham's ankle is nothing compared with when Beckham broke his foot just months before the 2002 World Cup. Beckham, or "Goldenballs" as the British press dubbed him, was intrinsic to England's plans for the tournament. 

    In September 2001 his long-range late goal against Greece had secured England's unlikely qualification for the tournament. I remember watching the game in a pub that, like many across the country, erupted as the ball soared into the back of the net. He was voted Britain's sports personality of the year and Beckhamania was born.

    David Beckham, Adidas Fevernova
    SLIDESHOW: Life of Becks

    When Beckham broke his foot in April 2002 – just two months before the World Cup was due to start – the country was stunned. Daily bulletins were posted on his health, a nation of people who had probably never even heard of the metatarsal bone before (the bone in his foot that Beckham had broken) became experts in how it could be mended. One tabloid newspaper even printed a full page photo of an X-ray of Beckham's injured foot urging the nation to pray for his recovery. 

    Beckham did become fit enough to play in the World Cup – either by divine intervention or more conventional means – scoring a vital penalty goal against rivals Argentina. However, England was later knocked out by eventual world champions Brazil.

  • Germans stuck in winter’s icy grip

    MAINZ, Germany – "Sorry sir, we are out of snow shovels."

    There are no statistics on how many times Germans have heard this answer this winter. But in a sign of the times, even sled manufacturers said that they could not meet the high demand for their product thanks to Germany's unusually cold winter marked by heavy snow fall and icy weather.

    For meteorologists, spring officially started on March 1, but there is no sign of it in central Europe.

    Image: A general view of a mass pile-up of cars at the Autobahn 93 freeway near Schwandorf
    Dpa / EPA
    A general view of a mass pile-up of more than 40 cars on the Autobahn 93 freeway near Schwandorf, Germany, on Match 6.

    Forecasts show that many regions in Germany can expect at least another foot of snow this weekend. And even traditionally warm winter holiday escapes, like southern France and the Mediterranean island of Mallorca, came to a frozen standstill at the beginning of the week with up to 3.5 feet of snow.

    "Satan is driving out the devil," said Tarik El-Kabbani, a meteorologist for the German television broadcaster ZDF, during his weekend weather outlook when he informed his audience that the forecast had changed from a "dry cold front with icy winds" to "a wet cold front with more snowfall."

    Some viewers have had enough of the winter weather.

    "I am sick and tired of the cold weather. If I had the money and time, I would fly to Mexico right away," said Barbara Wagner, a 28-year-old student from Mainz.

    Particularly cold


    Despite some speculation that perhaps global warming is somehow to blame for the odd weather, meteorologists have dismissed that idea.

    "This winter is special. It was the coldest and longest German winter in the past 13 years, with temperatures 1.5 degrees Celsius [34 degrees Fahrenheit] below average," said Dr. Joerg Rapp from the German Weather Service, DWD, in Frankfurt.

    Other European countries that have enjoyed mild winters during the past 10 years have experienced even higher drops in temperatures this winter. And, traditionally warm southern countries, like France and Spain, have recently been drowning in snow this winter.

    Image: Tourists use a hiking path on the 1,142 meter tall Brocken mountain in national park Harz near Schierke, Germany
    Jens Wolf / EPA

    The prettier side of snow. Tourists use a hiking path on Brocken Mtn.  in Harz national park near Schierke, Germany on March 7.

    At the same time, Canada, for example, which was believed to be somewhat snow safe, had to bring tons of artificial snow to the ski slopes during the Winter Olympics.

    But, many experts see the apparent reversal of average climate conditions as "pure coincidence" and don't blame global warming for this winter's extreme weather.

    "For this to be categorized as a change in the global climate trend with its steadily increasing temperatures, we would have to experience continuity in exceptionally cold winters over the next 15 years," said Rapp.

    Economic effects


    The extreme weather this season also included a violent winter storm named "Xynthia," which killed more than 60 people when it swept across Western Europe at the end of February. Countries like Germany, France, Portugal, Spain and Belgium all suffered strong winds, surging seas and heavy rain.

    In France, fallen power lines led to blackouts for about a million homes, causing French President Sarkozy to declare a state of emergency.

    But, experts say that even severe storms at this time of the year are not unusual and that Xynthia was not exceptionally strong.

    "Even in mild winters we have experienced these types of storms," said Gerhard Mueller-Westermeier, a German meteorologist from Frankfurt.

    Yet, the long winter is taking its toll on European economies. Analysts say that Europe's extreme winter weather is partially to blame for a dent in Germany's economic growth rate during the first three months of 2010.

    In particular, Germany's construction industry has felt the effects of the unusually cold weather. And, insurance companies across Europe are facing hefty payments. Allianz, Germany's biggest insurer expects damage claims from Portugal, Spain, France and Germany to range between $137-$410 million.

    Image: wrapped up
    SLIDESHOW: A woman in Florence, Italy braces against the cold on March 9. Click to see the rest of the Week in Pictures

    Potholes for sale
    Meantime, German automobile club, ADAC, estimates that the severe winter weather has left between 30 to 40 percent of Germany's roads badly damaged – which is presenting a major challenge for a lot of communities with already tight budgets due to the global financial crisis.

    But, the cash-strapped eastern German village of Niederzimmern has come up with a novel idea to finance its crumbling roads. Officials have put the town's potholes up for sale on the Internet. 

    "We already sold 111 potholes in the past weeks and are receiving requests from countries as far away as the United States and China," said town official Barbara Ulrich.
    For about $68 per hole, potential buyers will receive a plaque with their name and a message of their choice posted next to the freshly paved street – until the next extreme winter.

  • Official’s alleged sex diary stirs anger in China

    BEIJING – The revealing of a diary allegedly written by a local tobacco official detailing bribes he received, boozy meals with other officials and numerous extra-marital sexual liaisons is just the latest example of apparent government corruption outraging China's 'Netizens.

    It is unclear if the journal entries actually were written by Han Feng, a director at the Tobacco Monopoly Bureau in China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. But when the story quickly went national after excerpts from the alleged journal were posted online, Han was suspended from his job on Feb. 22, pending an investigation.

    The scandalous tale of government corruption and lechery – the diaries are a litany of bribery and sexual encounters between Han and a number of mistresses and subordinates – couldn't come at a more embarrassing time for China's central government. Just ahead is the Communist Party's annual nine-day meeting of the National People's Congress when nearly 3,000 delegates elected by China's provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities and armed forces descend on Beijing to partake in the legislative meeting. 

    Image: Wen Jiabao
    China Daily via Reuters
    China's Premier Wen Jiabao adjusts his glasses as he delivers a speech during the opening ceremony of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 5.

    The National People's Congress is considered to be little more than a symbolic rubber stamp for decisions already made by China's Communist Party, but it is also considered to be an opportunity for China's leaders to show they are in touch with the concerns of regular citizens. 

    Premier Wen Jiabao told delegates that the government would intensify its fight against corruption at the opening session of the party's annual meeting in Beijing last Friday. But, if there is any truth to Han's alleged journal, the government clearly has a long way to go in order to satisfy China's newly empowered – and angry – netizens.

    Last year 'smoothest ever'

    Han's alleged journal excerpts, posted on China's popular Tianya forum  by someone claiming to be the husband of one of his mistresses, cover five months in Han's life from September 2007 to January 2008 in startling frankness. (Warning the excerpts include explicit language and sexual themes).   

    A typical entry reveals a man who wrote matter-of-factly about long government-financed lunches, heavy drinking, unauthorized travel and a regular stream of cash and electronic gifts from local businessmen seeking greater influence with him:

    "September 16 Sunday (24-31? sunny) Sha [his wife] went shopping in the morning. Wang Shucheng took the two of us out for lunch at the Guijing Hotel. He gave me two bottles of maotai [famous brand of expensive local wine] and 50,000 yuan [$7,322] in cash. I put 30,000 yuan [$4,393] in the bank and took the other 20,000 yuan [$2,928] home."

    Similarly, Han's rise through the ranks of the local tobacco bureau coincided with a flurry of new sexual partners and mistresses. In his end of the year journal entry on Dec. 31, 2007, Han noted his success, but also his concerns about the new female attention:   

    "I finally got some women.  I hooked up with Xiao Pan. I have fun with Tan Xianfang regularly. I also have fun with Mo Yaodai.  I have luck with women this year.  But when there are too many women, I have to watch my body health."

    Still, he concludes: "The year 2007 is over.  This is the year in which my work has gone the smoothest ever."

    Online outrage seethes

    The response to Han's journal postings among China's 'Netizens was instant and intense.

    "Is this the normal state of our national cadres?" questioned one blogger on Tianya, to which another responded, "Officialdom is very yellow [perverted], very black [illicit], this is probably the tip of the iceberg."

    "We should recommend this to become one of major issues submitted to the National People's Congress to discuss!" exclaimed another irate 'Netizen. 

    Despite the allegations and criticism against him, Han is fighting back. Last week he approached local police alleging that his privacy had been violated and requested assistance in tracking down the perpetrators behind the theft of his journal, which he claims was heavily distorted in order to smear him.

    Hearing the clamoring
    Whatever their sentiments, reaction to Han's story is just another example of the increasing influence 'Netizens wield in shaping public discourse.

    Perhaps bending to this increased strength and anger, last month Premier Wen Jiabao hosted his second Web chat. The premier responded to over 20 questions during the two-hour session, which touched on a number of sensitive subjects, including corruption.

    "The Chinese people attached so much importance to the anti-corruption cause when we are coping with the financial meltdown, and why?" asked Wen. "Because in my opinion, economic development, social justice and a clean government are the three pillars of social stability."

    In addition, Wen introduced a new proposal that has gained momentum as the National People's Congress comes to a close: the mandatory disclosure of financial assets by government officials.

    Wen's proposal was warmly welcomed on another popular government-sanctioned platform, the People Daily's "e-Congress," an online forum created by the official newspaper of the Communist party, where 'Netizens can maintain a real-time discussion – within guidelines – on issues discussed during the congress.

    A score of questions and an online forum may not sound like much, but compared to the level of discourse at the National People's Congress, it's a start.

    How many questions were the 2,987 delegates to the National People's Congress allowed to ask Wen after his two hour speech on China's next Five Year Plan afforded? A round zero.

  • Iraq’s politics: an explosive chess game

     BAGHDAD – As election results trickle in, politics have become Iraq's new spectator sport. 

    Yesterday, I talked for hours with a group of Iraqi politicians and businessmen in the garden of one of Baghdad's most lavish villas. The house was a big square mansion covered with red and green lights and surrounded by palm trees. Some Iraqis have done very well as this country's economy has opened up to the West.

    By the swimming pool, and next to a wood burning barbecue, we sat discussing how the new government might ultimately come together. Our conversation was frequently interrupted by coffees brought on trays and plates of delicious kebabs. (The villa's owner only eats the meat of young male sheep, believing their meat to be more tender. Childbirth, he said, makes the meat of ewes harder and less tasty.) 

    As we ate, the conversation swirled with a thousand possibilities and ambiguities, much in the same way sports fans speculate about possible trades, injuries, lineups and face-offs that ultimately determine which teams make it to the Super Bowl.

    Image: Iraq election
    Shwan Mohammed / AFP - Getty Images
    Iraqi electoral officials count votes in the northern Kurdish city of Sulaimaniyah on Thursday following Iraq's second general elections since the U.S.-led invasion of 2003. 

    None of the guests at the villa thought Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki would win enough votes to form a new government on his own. Everyone agreed that he will have to join his main rivals in a coalition. But how? When? Who's in? Who's out? How will it play out? No one knew, but everyone was happy to speculate.

    After four hours, I was stuffed – and twitching from so much coffee – and utterly confused. One thing, however, was clear: it will take weeks, or more likely months, to put together a new government.

    Iraq's system
    I have never been a fan of Iraq's form of government, and written about it before in books and blogs. It's a weak structure, in my opinion, ill suited for a country that desperately needs leadership to make difficult decisions. 

    In the United States, the president is chosen directly in a single election. After he or she is elected, the president selects a cabinet. 

    Iraq uses a parliamentary system similar to many European countries, where the government emerges from the winning parties, which in turn appoint a prime minister. He or she then picks a cabinet. 

    There's much more horse-trading involved. There are many conversations like, "If you'll join the coalition, I'll give you the education and trade ministries." Or "If I get the finance ministry, you can have the ministry of oil."

    VIDEO: Close contest in Iraq's election, NBC's Richard Engel reports

    In Iraq now there are four main players:

    Nouri al-Maliki's bloc 

    Al-Maliki is Iraq's prime minister and also the strongest member of the Dawa Party. The Dawa party was once a Shiite opposition group that fought, with weapons, against Saddam's regime.

    Under al-Maliki's term as prime minister, the Dawa party has grown strong, wealthy and entrenched. It is not popular – people on the streets don't hang Dawa party flags – but it is powerful, benefiting from having been the party of the state for the last five years. 

    Al-Maliki has also brought in several allies to try to broaden the Dawa party's appeal, but his bloc remains firmly under Dawa control. Al-Maliki himself is an enigmatic character. Quiet and calculating, he spent years in exile in Syria and Iran. His relations with Americans here in Baghdad have been workable, but not great. 

    Kurdish bloc

    Although there are now some challenges to Kurdish leadership, two main parties have an alliance that holds a near monopoly of power in Kurdistan, the unofficial nation the Kurds have carved out for themselves in northern Iraq. 

    Their priority is Kurdish autonomy. Critics have accused the Kurdish parties of being willing to form a government with any group that will give Kurds more freedom and power. They are, in the words of critics, willing to make a deal with the devil for Kurdish rights and freedoms.

    Ayad Allawi

    Ayad Allawi is an interesting character. He's Shiite, but secular. He was once a member of Saddam's Baath party, but fell out with the leadership. Allawi was hospitalized for a year when Saddam's henchmen tried to kill him with an ax in suburban London. 

    Allawi briefly served as an appointed prime minister in the early days of the American occupation of Iraq. He was perceived to a tough guy, decisive and close to the West. He likes and cultivates this perception. He's a big burly guy who actually looks remarkably like Tony Soprano. Allawi wants people to think he's tough. 

    Although Allawi is Shiite, he is popular with Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbors. He has good relations with Saudi Arabia, which, seeing itself as the guardian of Sunni Islam, is not comfortable with Iraq's Shiite leaders or the Dawa Party. (The Saudi king has refused to shake al-Maliki's hand.) For Iraq's Sunni neighbors, Allawi is a Shiite they can deal with, a Shiite who acts like a Sunni. Allawi has also aligned himself with many Iraqi Sunnis and taken up their cause.  

    Allawi's critics, though, call him a closet Baathist and there is personal mistrust between al-Maliki and Allawi. Some Americans worry Allawi wants to be a new Iraqi strongman, a secular Shiite Saddam-lite. 

     

    Image: An employee of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) checks the numbers of boxes containing the special parliamentary ballots, at a counting centre in Basra
    SLIDESHOW: Iraq goes to the polls

    Islamic bloc
    In many ways, this is the most interesting, and most bizarre, of Iraq's political players. The Islamic bloc brings together Iraq's two leading Shiite families, al-Sadr and al-Hakim. 

    Muqtada al-Sadr, currently in Iran, is leader of the "Sadr Trend," and its dormant militia, the Mahdi Army. The Mahdi Army has carried out hundreds of attacks against American and Iraqi troops. Al-Sadr says his group is now only involved in politics. 

    Al-Sadr's movement has deep roots in Iraq. The al-Sadr family is, without overstatement, worshiped by many Shiites in southern Iraq. With a single statement, the Sadr movement can call tens of thousands, perhaps even hundreds of thousands, of people into the streets. Dawa can't do that. Neither can al-Hakim. 

    The al-Hakim family runs another Shiite party and militia called the Supreme Council and the Badr Brigades. Both are directly supported by Iran. The Supreme Council and the Badr Brigades were very powerful a few years ago, but have been slowly losing influence. They do, however, still have many supporters in the military and police.  

    To add yet another twist, Ahmed Chalabi, who was long on the CIA's payroll and helped convince the Bush White House to invade Iraq, is also an active member of the Sadr-Hakim alliance. It's an odd bunch.

    How will it play out?

    The truth is, no one knows. 

    Al-Maliki is expected to get the most votes and then try to form a government. I am told, however, that his potential partners insist that al-Maliki himself not remain prime minister. The deal is, if it's a new Dawa government, then no al-Maliki. 

    Al-Maliki could also, however, reach out and try to form a government with Allawi. If al-Maliki fails, then Allawi will then have a chance to form a government. 

    The experts at the U.S. embassy here who track these political movements will be very busy for the next few months.

    What's at stake?

    The United States is most concerned that the process doesn't break down into violence.  Thus if the parties manage to peacefully form a government – almost any government – the U.S. would accept it. 

    The U.S. military's big concern is that the process takes months, bring the country to paralysis and violence. This is a distinct possibility and is why U.S. troops will remain here in force through this summer.

    Another danger: political assassinations. It is a volatile time.

    Richard Engel has been reporting from Iraq since before the U.S. in 2003 and has written two books: A Fist In The Hornet's Nest: On the Ground in Baghdad Before, During and After the War and War Journal: My Five Years in Iraq.

  • How families were pulled out to sea to drown

    CONSTITUCION, Chile – After the powerful Chilean earthquake and the tsunami that followed, the local surgeon told a horrifying story.  

    Along the coastal area, he said, close to the epicenter offshore, most local residents knew that after they suffered through a magnitude 8.8 earthquake, a tsunami with towering waves was likely to hit them next, and soon. Many people ran as fast as they could for safety in the hills outside town. Others tried to drive their vehicles to higher ground.

    Some people, though, he said, didn't make it, including families in cars that got stuck in traffic as the first, massive ocean waves approached and then overtook them. 

    As the wall of water slammed into the coast, then receded, drivers who were by then underwater could be heard frantically beeping their horns for help, the sound fading and the lights of their cars dimming as they and their families were pulled out to sea to drown. 

    The surgeon who told me that story was visibly shaken and said he had never seen anything in his life like the devastation caused by water.

    Mark Potter / NBC News
    Ruins of a popular seaside restaurant row and nightclub in Constitucion, Chile, destroyed by the earthquake tsunami.

    Pummeled by a 50-foot wave


    The near-record Chilean earthquake, which struck early Feb. 27, certainly did plenty of damage on its own. Buildings, shops and highway overpasses collapsed, while entire apartment complexes fell in on themselves or tipped over, trapping and killings residents beneath. The Santiago airport terminal had to be closed and miles of homes were reduced to rubble throughout the country.

    Despite the destruction from the original earthquake inland, the areas along the Chilean coast are even worse. Towns there were actually pummeled twice – first by the earthquake then by the tsunami – and the damage was so extensive that in many places there is absolutely nothing left now, except debris. 

    In Constitucion, a popular visitor's destination was a row of restaurants and a nightclub with a stunning sunset view of the Pacific Ocean. All of that is gone now, having been obliterated by a chain of tsunami waves, the biggest of which was estimated to be at least 50 feet high. 

    There is little left now except concrete slabs and huge piles of shattered wood, electrical cables and roofing tiles. Recovery workers were also searching for bodies there.

    In downtown Constitucion, boats docked along the waterfront were tossed ashore by the tsunami, one of them landing alongside the city bus and train terminal. 

    Mark Potter / NBC News
    Remains of a boat tossed ashore by the tsunami in Constitucion, Chile. It landed at the town bus and train station.

    Giant trucks were upended and homes were flattened by the water. Stunned residents wandered around trying to collect the few belongings they could save. Caskets from a funeral home were scattered around one of the streets.

    In Curanipe, another Chilean coastal town which is the area closest to the epicenter, most of the downtown area was smashed and swept away by the waves. Forty campers who were visiting the area were trapped by the tsunami and are all believed to have perished.

    Marco Medel is a student who was visiting his family in Curanipe when the disaster struck.  With the tsunami wave approaching, he said, he ran uphill as fast as he could to stay ahead of the wave, never looking back. "We heard behind us, all the trees falling and a lot of screams, people screaming that they needed help," he said. 

    The town was also devastated economically. The entire fishing industry there was destroyed, with boats swamped and processing plants and restaurants ripped apart. Miles of netting were strewn about town while fish, crabs and other produce rotted in the sun. 

    Julio Vera, a fisherman who is grateful that he, his wife and son survived, has nothing left to support his family. "I lost all my equipment, my boat, my motor, my nets, everything," he moaned.

    And the country is still being rattled – a 7.2 magnitude aftershock, the strongest aftershock since the devastating Feb. 27 quake, rocked Santiago Thursday in the middle of President Sebastian Pinera's inauguration, reviving of tsunami fears.

    The television broadcast of the inauguration on TVN Chile ran a tsunami warning for several minutes, warning residents to run to higher ground. And in cities along the coastline residents did exactly that. The warning was eventually recalled and residents were told it was safe to return home. 

    Mark Potter / NBC News
    Ruins of a seafood processing facility struck by tsunami waves in Curanipe, Chile.

    Eerily similar to Hurricane Katrina damage


    Walking through the tsunami rubble in Chile was eerily reminiscent of seeing the same storm surge damage along the U.S. Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina made landfall in the summer of 2005. 

    During that tragic event, it wasn't the hurricane winds that did the most damage; it was the water. 

    The huge waves that broke ashore in Mississippi and the swelling water levels that ripped open the levees in New Orleans were the predominate causes of the catastrophic damage and loss of life in those regions.

    The areas in coastal Chile, where homes and business were reduced to nothing but boards and trash, looked almost exactly like the neighborhoods of Waveland and Biloxi, Miss., where water surged ashore and left nothing standing. 

    The homelessness and fear lingering in Chile now are just like the suffering felt in the Ninth Ward near New Orleans after the levees broke there and drowned that historic neighborhood and many of its citizens.

    A new fear of the water


    An irony being talked about in Chile now is that so many fishing towns there built their economies and thrived on what they could take from the sea. But that same sea has now taken so much away that many people, for the first time, are deathly afraid of it. For a generation that has never experience this before, the water revealed its unforgiving power to destroy.

    Four days after the earthquake, an unfortunate mix-up illustrated just how scared people are in Chile. Already there had been many aftershocks, some of them major. But, on March 3, a rumor flashed up and down the coast, from neighborhood to neighborhood, that a tsunami warning had just been issued and that another wall of water was headed for shore.

    Almost immediately, in many different towns at once, every street headed east away from the coast was filled with terrified residents running, driving or bicycling uphill to safer ground.

     Soldiers deployed to the area to keep order frantically directed traffic away from the low-lying downtown area.  Young people helped elderly residents climb the steep streets and sidewalks, while children and many adults cried in fear, as the word "tsunami" was heard over and over again in the crowds.

    The tsunami rumor turned out to be false, but the fear it sparked did not subside quickly or completely. 

    Many residents whose homes still stand near the coast refuse to go back to them and are camping in tent cities in the nearby hills. They are concerned about aftershocks toppling the walls of their homes and are even more afraid of the ocean rising up again to wash them away.

    Throughout Chile, there is no doubt the earthquake, itself, was destructive and horrible. But anyone living within sight of the ocean knows the water was, and may still be, an even greater threat.

  • Pirates target tropical tourist hot spot

     VICTORIA, Seychelles – With mouths shut and eyes downcast, a group of Somali men and boys sat around a table in the police station in Victoria, the Seychelles' capital city on the island of Mahé.

    A police officer un-cuffed the 11 prisoners, some of whom were barefoot, and left the room as their court-appointed lawyer explained that they faced seven years to life in prison on charges of piracy and terrorism. 

    "Make no mistake, you are facing some very, very, very serious charges," defense lawyer Anthony Juliette said through an interpreter flown in from Kenya.

    "The evidence against you is quite overwhelming," said Juliette, while promising to do everything in his power to fight the charges against them.

    It isn't every day I find myself in a room full of alleged pirates. But that is where I was recently in the Seychelles, an archipelago made of 115 tropical islands in the Indian Ocean, about 900 miles off the east coast of Africa. 

    The group I was sitting with is accused of firing on a Seychellois coast guard ship before being captured along with AK-47s, a global positioning device and a rocket-propelled grenade. The men and boys, some as young as 14, claimed to be fishermen, but were found without a line, fish or bait, according to Seychelles' Coast Guard.

    Piracy spreading
    With the world's navies squeezing Somali pirates out of the Gulf of Aden, their recent hunting grounds, the bandits have begun targeting shipping in the vast Indian Ocean.

    As a result, the Seychelles, long a vacation destination for the world's beautiful and rich and also home to a sizeable tuna fishing industry, has recently found itself at the center of the global battle on piracy. 

    In February 2009, pirates seized the ship "Serenity" with Seychellois citizens Gilbert Victor, Conrad Andre and Robin Samson aboard. The men were released after seven months, but that was not the last incident to strike the archipelago's waters.

    Image: Gilbert Victor, a Seychelles citizen who was on a ship that was seized by pirates and held captive for seven months, is embraced after his release.
    Courtesy Seychelles government
    Gilbert Victor, a Seychelles citizen who was on a ship that was seized by pirates and held captive for seven months, is embraced after his release.

    In October, Paul Chandler and his wife Rachel, both of Kent, England, were captured as their yacht sailed from the Seychelles to Tanzania. The hostage-takers initially demanded $7 million, a vast amount for the middle class family, relatives countered. The figure has reportedly gone down to $2 million, but the Chandlers are still captive.

    But pirates prefer to hunt larger prey, and have been known to hijack oil tankers and cargo ships carrying aid. And while few Western hostages have been killed, pirates have been known to simply throw Filipino and Chinese sailors overboard because their countries' governments usually refuse to pay ransoms.

    The growing high-seas banditry is a blow to Seychelles' economy, and piracy is cited as one of the major reasons for last year's 30 percent fall in port activity, Srdjana Janosevic, the Seychelles presidential spokeswoman said. 

    So the Seychelles has had to appeal to mightier countries for aid.  In the last six months, the government signed agreements allowing ships and planes from NATO, the European Union and the United States to patrol its waters.

    The help may have paid off on Dec. 5 when a NATO spy plane spotted three boats allegedly carrying the men and boys I sat with more than a month later in the Victoria police station.

    Image: A group of alleged Somali pirates listen to their lawyer during a meeting in Victoria, Seychelles.
    F. Brinley Bruton / msnbc.com
    A group of alleged Somali pirates listen to their lawyer during a meeting in Victoria, Seychelles.

    Trying to combat an increasingly 'attractive option'
    Their trial, which is expected to begin on Monday, March 15, is the first case to be brought against pirates in this small nation. It is unlikely to be the last. 

    "There is a definite preference from naval states policing this area for pirates to be tried and incarcerated in the region, and that means Kenya and Seychelles at the moment," said Roger Middleton, a researcher specializing in the Horn of Africa at Chatham House, a London think tank. "[Western countries] are nervous about bringing hundreds of Somalis into Europe and having them claim asylum."

    The Seychelles says it is committed to doing its part.

    "Everybody has to put in their effort to combat the scourge of piracy," said the country's Attorney General Ronny Govinden.  "We want this trial to be a deterrent to the potential criminals."

    But even if the Seychelles and Kenya, which holds about 100 alleged pirates, step up to the plate, it is hard to see how this and the heavy naval presence in the area will stamp-out  a problem stemming from Somalia, a failed state about hundreds of miles away.

    "All the money, all the ships being spent trying to stop these boys of 14, 15, that could be spent on making sure they stay on land," the court-appointed interpreter said to me shaking his head.

    With an ongoing civil war, severe drought, collapsed economy and no functioning government, the pirates are one of Somalia's only exports. Currently, these high-seas bandits hold seven major vessels and about 160 crew members hostage, according to State Department numbers.

    "There are massive problems with unemployment (in Somalia), so the option for most young men is to join some militia or some kind of government-ish kind of force," Chatham House's Middleton said.

    "So piracy seems like an attractive option. You can make about $10,000 from being a pirate foot soldier, while a normal guy in Somalia makes $600 a year," he said.

    Juliette, the Somalis' lawyer, believes that the international community has failed in its obligation to try and make peace in the Horn of Africa, and is now transferring the burden onto the tiny Seychelles.

    "There is a big international concern regarding piracy around the world so a lot of eyes are watching … The Seychelles government will want to be seen to be doing a lot," Juliette told his clients, who mainly looked distracted and nervous.

    One of the Somalis, a young man with a wispy beard who appeared to speak on behalf of the group, repeatedly said that all of them were innocent fishermen and had been badly beaten by the Coast Guard when they were picked up.

    "We never saw the weapons until we were in custody," the man said through the interpreter. "We didn't even think we were in the Seychelles when we were caught."

    Juliette countered.

    "If you are fishermen, I want lines, hooks, bait," he said. "You prove you were fishing, you prove that you were there for a legitimate reason."

  • Ouch! Hunanese hosts turn down the heat in our food

    Zhangjiajie, Hunan Province -- It shouldn't come as any surprise that one of the great perks of working in China is the food.  I'm only half-joking when I say that my colleagues and I rate field assignments here more on the cuisine than anything else.

    And for that reason alone Hunan is certainly one of the better places to visit.  Considered one of the great eight regional cuisines of China, its food is best known for its fiery flavor.

    Moreover, I'd been cheated out of an opportunity to sample local dishes the last time we were in the central China province.  It was around two years ago, when the worst ice storms ever to hit the country struck the eastern parts of central and southern China. My memory of Hunan was of downed power lines and rice paddies covered with a thick layer of ice. Certainly not of food.  Trying to make our way up by perilous road from neighboring Guangdong, we didn't have time to eat.

    Image: China
    Adrienne Mong / NBC News
    A room full of sausages specially made for a local restaurant in Hunan.

    So once we knew we were off to Hunan this week, my stomach started rumbling.  Particularly after a month-long assignment in Haiti, where for thirty days I dined on rice and beans almost every dinner.  Yes, rice and beans for thirty days.

    Chillies and revolutionaries 
    As the birthplace of Mao Zedong, Hunan summons up all sorts of clichés about the Chairman and chilies.  As in, "the more chilies one eats, the more revolutionary one becomes." 

    The province also was home to a whole host of other military and political dignitaries, including General Zuo Zongtang from the late Qing Dynasty, who inspired that most famous Hunan dish, General Tso's Chicken. 

    Famous in America, at least.  It turns out General Tso's Chicken -- crispy chicken stir-fried in a sweet-sour sauce with a touch of chili -- was invented by Peng Chang-kuei, a chef who fled his native Hunan for Taiwan when the Communists took over the mainland in 1949. 

    The dish was introduced to New Yorkers about 20 years later when Peng opened a restaurant in New York City -- and the dish spread like wildfire (once it had been adapted to the American palate with a crispier batter and more sugar).

    Among the other notable and sometimes lesser-known qualities of Hunan food are an emphasis on sour flavors, slow-cooked stews, smoked meats (especially the varieties of sausages) and an amazing range of cooked vegetables.

    "Traditionally, most Chinese ate very little meat and fish. They couldn't afford to," said Fuchsia Dunlop, author of the "Revolutionary Chinese Cookbook" and, most recently, "Shark's Fin and Sichuan Pepper: A Sweet-Sour Memoir of Eating in China."

    "The diet for most Chinese people was based on grains and vegetables," she added.  "And … the grain would be the center of the meal, and the other dishes are meant to help 'send the rice down.'"

    "We weren't sure you could handle the heat"
    Tasty vegetable side dishes like the shredded broad beans, stewed eggplant, finely sliced funghi with chillies, dried tofu with tomatoes, chopped green onions tossed with black fermented beans -- which all appeared at our first lunch in Zhangjiajie, a mountainous region in northwestern Hunan -- definitely helped the rice go down.

    To our surprise, however, none of the dishes were as blazing-hot as we expected.  After all, this is a province reputed for cooking such spicy food that diners lose all sense of taste after the first few bites. 

    Image: China
    Adrienne Mong / NBC News

    The beginning of lunch on our first full day in Zhangjiajie, Hunan.

     

    "People in mountainous places tend to eat more chili and coarser food – bolder food," said Dunlop, "Particularly in damp, muggy climates."  Zhangjiajie certainly qualified in that category.  During our visit, the hilly region was covered in clouds and mists, ferns were plentiful everywhere in the undergrowth, and it was impossible to shake off the damp that chilled us to the bone.

    Image: China
    Adrienne Mong / NBC News
    Dinner our first evening in Zhangjiajie featured not one but two hot pots: fish and chicken.

    Apparently, our hosts weren't sure we could handle the heat.  Instead, small plates of chilies -- stewed, pickled, dried, diced, fried -- were all on offer for the intrepid grazer.  Our researcher and sound technician, Ed Flanagan, and I gamely tried one of the tiny yellow stewed peppers.  They weren't so bad for the first few seconds, but when the burn persisted we decided to cut our losses and stayed away from them the rest of the meal.

    As it turns out, all the meals we enjoyed in Zhangjiajie weren't typical Hunan dishes, according to our hosts.  Most of it was, in fact, based in Tujia cooking.  (The Tujia are an ethnic minority numbering around eight million people spread across Hunan, Hubei, Sichuan and Guizhou provinces, and their diet is based as much on corn as it is on rice.) 

    So once again we'll have to find another assignment to get us back to Hunan before we can finally enjoy "authentic," typical Hunanese fare.

     

  • Iraqi elections: America's final hurdle

     BAGHDAD – For a country recovering from a single-party dictatorship, Iraqis have had more elections in the last five years than Americans.  But elections in Iraq, while once hailed as a proof of success, have also created bloodshed and chaos. 

    This election has the potential to be no different, but could also put Iraq on a peaceful path and allow American troops to leave here with their heads high and finally – honestly – say, mission accomplished. 
     
    The blue finger moment
    Iraqis held their first election after the U.S. invasion in January 2005.  I remember the hope and excitement in Baghdad then. U.S. troops had been in Iraq less than two years. Stories of suffering under Saddam were still bubbling to the surface. 

    Iraqis were traveling, marrying and opening businesses. But optimism was already starting to fade. Sunni Muslims were feeling increasingly excluded and punished by the Shiite Muslim majority. It was victims' revenge for the Sunnis, who were favored  by Saddam, himself a Sunni. 

    Just before the vote, U.S. troops carried out a major and highly destructive offensive in the Sunni city of Falujah, "the city of mosques," as it is known here. The offensive only seemed to prove to Sunnis that America and the Shiites were in cahoots, both out to get them. 

    Several elder Iraqi statesmen called on the United States to postpone the election until Iraq was more stable. It wasn't right, they argued, to hold a vote while Sunni lands were war ones. But the United States refused any delay. The march of democracy had to continue, but not surprisingly Sunnis boycotted the elections across Iraq. 

    Uncontested, a coalition of religious Shiite parties swept to power.  Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a soft-spoken but largely ineffective Shiite doctor and poet, was sworn in as prime minister.  The United States, especially officials at the White House, declared the January 2005 elections an unabashed success.  Images of Iraqis dancing at polling stations were "proof" that democracy was blooming in the Fertile Crescent.  But many Iraqis, especially Sunnis, saw the election as a failure.  Iran heavily influenced the vote, buying off many politicians.  After the vote: Sunnis were out; Shiites were in;  Iran was empowered; and Iraq was on a volatile course.
     
    Second election
    In December 2005, less than 12 months after the first election, Iraqis went back to the polls.  There were again voting for parliament, but this time it would be "official."  Iraq now had a new constitution, also passed with extensive American help and pressure. With the constitution in hand, Iraqis went back to the ballot boxes and bottles of purple ink.  This time, Sunnis, feeling they'd erred and were being left out of the political process, participated in the vote.  Sunnis were going to take back power, or at least some of it, through elections.  But the Shiite parties saw the threat coming. 

    To block the emerging Sunni challenge, Shiite parties banded together and pried an endorsement from their normally tight-lipped religious leadership in the Holy Shiite city of Najaf.  Shiite clerics – including the highly respected Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani – quietly approved of what became known as the "Shiite List."  With the clerics' support, the Shiite list won Iraq's second election, formed and alliance with Kurdish parties and excluded Sunnis from power once again.  Nouri al-Maliki from the Shiite "Dawa" party (Islamic Call party) was chosen as the new prime minister.  Sunnis had tried to enter politics and failed, but the situations was about to get much worse.

    VIDEO: Pace of U.S. withdrawal at stake in Iraq vote

     
    Security deteriorates

    After participating in the second election and failing to win power, Sunnis began to feel hopeless and open to new ideas, even radical ones.  Militant Sunni groups including al-Qaida told Iraqis Sunnis they were wasting time participating in government and its infidel election process.  It was better, they said, to fight against a US-Shiite-Iranian conspiracy, or die trying.  The actions of increasingly violent Shiite militias only helped convince Sunnis of al-Qaida's argument.  After the second election, armed Shiite groups – emboldened by growing Shiite power and acting at times with government support – took over huge swaths of Baghdad. 
     
    Oddly, and perhaps incorrectly, the American media labeled Sunni militants "terrorists," but branded equally brutal Shiite killers "militias."  The difference was most likely a result of the tactics they used.  Sunni groups drove car bombs into crowded Shiite mosques and markets killing dozens of civilians at a time.  Sunni groups carried out the kinds of atrocity that look and feel like terrorism.  Shiite "militias" on the other hand preferred night raids, breaking into Sunnis homes, pulling civilians from their beds and torturing and assassinating them.  It seemed more like the activities of death squads or militias.  Some Shiite assassinations squads were backed by officials in the new Shiite-led government. 

    After the second election, the Sunni-Shiite civil war was brewing.  It exploded in February 2006, two months after the second vote when Sunni extremists destroyed the holy Shiite mosque in Samaraa.  After that, Sunnis and Shiites started to openly kill each other in the streets.  Both sides entered a furious blood feud, targeting civilians, religious leaders and American troops trying to keep the two sides apart. 

    VIDEO: Insurgents vow to disrupt Iraqi election

     
    The surge
    As the meat grinder of civil war chewed through Baghdad neighborhoods, U.S. military leaders and the White House (despite consistent claims that everything in Iraq was going well) decided to change policy.  A new general, David Petraeus, was tapped to lead and save the war.  Gen. Petraeus developed a new strategy.  He realized that Sunnis felt disenfranchised.  To give the Sunnis power, General Petraeus helped create tribal 'Awakening Councils,' arming and paying Sunnis to fight al-Qaida themselves.  Not surprisingly, the Maliki government resisted the Awakening Councils, but eventually relented to American pressure.  Gen. Petraeus also reinforced American troops by 30,000, and pushed U.S. soldiers off bases so they could live among Iraqis and try to stop the bloodshed. 

    It was a big gamble.  Petraeus armed roughly 100,000 Sunni tribesmen and thrust American troops deeper into a civil war that at times looked impossible to win.  Militarily, the strategy was a huge success.  By the summer of 2007, violence plummeted.  But the "surge" was never followed up by political reconciliation. As violence continued to fade in 2008, the United States turned its attention to the increasingly urgent and long-neglected war in Afghanistan.  Iraqi was put on the back burner.
     
    Today
    In many ways this week's elections are Iraq's most important.  They have the potential to end a brief, but exceptionally bloody explosion of sectarianism, or return it to the streets.  The success of the election will also determine when and how America leaves Iraq.  The only reason American troops are still here is to make sure the elections and the post-election transition go smoothly.  If they do, seven years after it began, the American war in Iraq will be over. 
     
    Who's running?
    While there are more than 6,000 candidates, there are four main blocks that really matter.
     
    1. A Shiite religious coalition, bringing together followers of ancient clerical families of al-Sadr and al-Hakim.
    2:.A government list, led by Prime Minister Maliki.  Maliki is taking credit for the drop in violence that began with the US troops surge.  The success of the surge is his campaign.
    3. A secular-Sunni bloc led by Ayad Allawi, a Shiite who briefly served as a U.S.-appointed prime minister before the first elections. 
    4. A Kurdish alliance, which is expected to win Kurdish regions in northern Iraq.
     
    Who will win?
    No single group is expected to win outright.  Instead the four main blocks will have to share power.  The negotiations to form new government could take six months or more.  Maliki's bloc, according to polls and western diplomats, might win the most votes and therefore be in the best position to try form a government.  Maliki's biggest rival is Ayad Allawi's secular list.  Maliki vs Allawi is the race to watch. 
     
    Best-case scenario
    The elections go smoothly.  The winning parties quickly form a government (in 2-3 months) and U.S. troops withdrawal on schedule, leaving behind a functioning Iraqi political system that can run on its own. 
     
    Worst-case scenario
    Elections are violent, or perhaps more dangerously, riddled with fraud.  Iraqi politicians bicker for months (six months or more) creating a power vacuum that al-Qaida and Shiite militias gladly try to fill.  Security deteriorates.  The United States is forced to decide whether to continue its pullout and watch Iraq burn, or stay longer and try to right the ship of state once again.
     
    "Iraqi best" scenario
    Elections go relatively smoothly, but are marred by a few accusations of fraud.  Al-Qaida and Shiite attacks increase after the election, but not by enough to significantly derail the American withdrawal.  Some US combat forces are briefly extended beyond August to safeguard against further violence, but the ultimate withdrawal date of December 2011 holds.
     
    End game
    This election is America's final hurdle in Iraq.  If the system holds, the main U.S. commitment in the war is over.  Americans soldiers in Iraq become trainers until they leave.  If the system fails and Iraqis – even with US troops still here – can't manage a peaceful transition, then the seven year war effort defeated Saddam, beat an insurgency, but failed to build a stable country.  We should know which way it goes in the next six months to a year.

     

  • Beach reshaped at Chilean surfer's paradise

    Barry Keller is a hydrogeophysicst who has a home in Pichilemu, a beach town in central Chile known as a surfer's paradise.

    He shares this FirstPerson report:

    We were at home during the quake at 3:34 a.m. local time. There were very strong motions for about a minute. Our house in Pichilemu is a four-story (counting the roof deck) structure of poured concrete and blocks, with lots of rebar, anchored by meter cube concrete blocks into the bedrock. It is strong! Being tall, the house DOES move – a natural analog seismometer. 

    The night of the quake, 3:34 a.m. local time, was clear and calm. The bright full moon may have helped evacuations. We live on a hill and the roundabout below our driveway was filled with 20 to 30 cars within minutes. We quickly had a lot of company. At the next hill over, the one authorities told people to evacuate to, there were about 300 cars. By the next night, people were camping in both spots.

    Our home's window latches rattled with every aftershock but the damage was definitely minimal compared to what was suffered about
    100 kilometers southeast.

    Mostly, there was spillage and broken glass but the only thing structural broken at our home was a door frame that was bent and hammered back into place. The damage I saw was to older adobe structures, like this funeral parlor.

    In Punta de Lobos, a surf spot south of Pichilemu, several buildings were completely washed away. I heard campers drowned.  

    Escuela de Surf, which included bathrooms and a residence, was totally washed away. The beach got reshaped.
     
    At Playa Hermosa, between Punta de Lobos and Pichilemu, a number of cabañas were either washed away or upended.   

    The cove (caleta) of downtown Pichilemu got flooded, but the water was apparently not too powerful. It was reported as 0.8 meters deep, but this area is above sea level. 

    Overall, Pichilemu didn't get hit as hard as areas to both north (the surf spot Puertecillo wiped out) and south (Iloca, about 30 km south, where a wave was reported at 20 meters above sea level), but we may have to wait for a complete study.  

  • Hallelujah! Renaming Chinese mountain leads to a hill of trouble

    By Adrienne Mong, NBC News Producer
    ZHANGJIAJIE, Hunan Province -- It was an interesting formula.

    "One Japanese tourist spends the same as two Korean tourists," said Wang Ai Ming, an official from the Hunan tourism bureau.  "And one Korean spends as much as three Chinese tourists."

    Unfortunately for our minor functionary from Zhangjiajie, the Japanese and especially the Koreans haven't been spending much lately.

    While most of China's economy has powered through the global recession, tourism has not.  Remote destinations like Zhangjiajie in northwestern Hunan have been hit hard.

    A mountainous region of stunning beauty in the heart of China, Zhangjiajie attracted nearly as many as half a million people in the 2006-07 season.  The bulk of them came from South Korea, followed by Japan, and then so-called Greater China, includes Hong Kong and Taiwan.

    But when the downturn swept east from west in late 2008, severely weakening South Korea's economy, the number of tourists to Zhangjiajie more than halved. 


    Video: Watch Adrienne's report on the TODAY show

    "We had barely 200,000 visitors last year," said Wang.  And from servicing ten flights a day to and from Beijing at tourism's height, Zhangjiajie's tiny airport is now only handling three daily flights to and from the Chinese capital.   

    Zhangjiajie's main attraction is the National Forest Park, and it's not hard to see why.  Despite brisk weather that was also uncooperatively wet, the landscape's splendor was plenty apparent.

    More than three thousand sandstone peaks -- odd geological formations shaped over a period of 380 million years -- dot the lush landscape.  Shrouded in mist, the shapes lend themselves to exotic names like "48 Generals' Peaks" or more prosaic labels like "First Natural Bridge in the World."

    A masterful plan
    Despite its evident appeal, Zhangjiajie has yet to make its mark in the consciousness of Western tourists.

    But following the release of the movie "Avatar" in China at the beginning of this year, the region's tourist authorities hit upon an ingenious way to expand their reach beyond the shores of the Asian continent.

    NBC News
    A cluster of mountains known as "48 Generals' Peaks" in Zhangjiajie.

    The runaway hit broke box office records here, ringing up nearly $80 million within the first two weeks of its opening.  With total earnings in China now estimated at just over $100 million, "Avatar" has become the highest grossing movie ever in China.

    Tourism officials and tour operators in Zhangjiajie smelled an opportunity.

    "The floating mountain in 'Avatar' looked like this one here," said Deng Daoli, standing with us in front of a 3,000-feet tall mountain that looked like a stone column, tapering from bottom to top.  Although only 100 or so of the estimated 3,000 peaks in the forest have been designated names, this one had several.  Its official name is "Pillar of the Universe" (Qiankunyizhu in Chinese) although it's more commonly referred to as the "Southern Sky Column" (Nantianyizhu).  Now it's got a third name.

    "We re-named it Mount Hallelujah," said Deng.  As in the Hallelujah Mountains on the fictional planet of Pandora featured in the movie.

    It seemed like a smart marketing move.

    Not so fast. Zhangjiajie had a competitor.


    "First Natural Bridge in the World" in Zhangjiajie, Hunan

    A mountain of problems
    Local tourism officials at Huangshan -- also known as Yellow Mountain -- in Anhui Province laid claim that theirs was the inspiration for the Hallelujah peaks.  And they cited a newspaper interview with director James Cameron, during his visit to China for the movie premiere, saying that Huangshan had inspired the design of "Avatar"'s floating mountains.

    That may only be partially accurate. In an interview with NBC News, Cameron said that he had "used a lot of references," citing Venezuela and both Huangshan and Zhangjiajie in China.

    And then the Zhangjiajie tourism authorities had to contend with a backlash in public opinion.

    Chinese columnists and Internet users took exception to the re-naming of the "Pillar of the Universe," criticizing the move as kowtowing to Western influences.  A couple of students touring the sights the day we visited the Natural Forest summed it up thusly:  "There was no need to re-name it," said Liang Ying Zhi and Zheng Xie Wen.  "The name should retain its Chinese essence."

    And so officials in Zhangjiajie backtracked, saying they had not changed the name after all.


    "Southern Sky Column" or "Pillar of the Universe" or "Mt Hallelujah"

    None of this, however, has deterred Deng or Wang.  Both of them were quick to point out that names like "Pillar of the Universe" or "Southern Sky Column" are only a few years old and were given for the same reason as adding a new one: to generate attention and to attract tourists.

    "We have 3,000 mountains here," said Wang.  "Naming them isn't a big deal!  Just pick a name, any name."

    Name or no name, there nevertheless will be a new slogan to sustain the region's re-branding.  An official involved in overseeing the promotion of Zhangjiajie told us they would be launching a new campaign in April, featuring the phrase, "Pandora is far … but Zhangjiajie is near."

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