NBC News' Martin Fletcher reports from the Israel-Gaza border, where the number of tanks has built up over the past few days, but Israel's intentions for a possible ground invasion are unclear.

VIDEO: Israeli tanks ready, but intentions 'unclear'

TEL AVIV – As Israel vows a war "to the bitter end" against Hamas, the surge in violence has spurred worries about another regional Mideast war as well as speculation about Israel's ultimate aim with its broad assault on targets inside the Gaza Strip.

On the former question, there's not a chance. Who would fight it?

Apart from the usual suspects -- Iran, Syria and their Lebanese proxies, Hezbollah -- most Arab leaders are probably delighted that Israel is taking apart Hamas fighting ability. Most pleased, some of my regular Fatah sources tell me privately, is the West Bank Palestinian leadership of Fatah, which saw Hamas obliterate its own power structure in Gaza in a few violent days 18 months ago.

VIDEO: Israel air strikes continue

This is payback time, courtesy of Israel. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and other Fatah leaders, after calling for an urgent cease-fire, blame Hamas for provoking Israel by its refusal to continue the six-month truce, and its repeated rocket attacks into Israel.

Just as pleased is Egypt, which fears that its own fundamentalist Muslims will be encouraged by Hamas' success in Gaza. A bloody nose for Hamas fits Egypt's needs perfectly. Just as Palestinian police in the West Bank opened fire on pro-Hamas protestors on Sunday, so did Egyptian police on their border with Gaza.

Likewise, pro-Hamas demonstrations in Arab capitals like Amman and Baghdad will not force any military moves against Israel by their governments. And Iran, apart from its ability to support and encourage Hezbollah and Hamas, is a thousand miles away. The most Syria can do is to call off its indirect peace talks with Israel, which it has already done.

So there are only two ways the fighting could spread. One way is if Hezbollah, or Palestinian groups, in southern Lebanon open a second front by firing rockets into Israel.

But Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's lukewarm call to arms did not include his own men. He said, "I join my voice to the voices of other Palestinian leaderships that have called for a third intifada in Palestine." In other words – you guys do it.

And although there have been some protests at home, Israeli Arabs, as well as Palestinians in the West Bank, have limited themselves to highly-publicized but small-scale protests that include throwing stones at soldiers, but nothing worse.

If Israeli soldiers kill Israeli Arabs, that could provoke a much wider revolt. But because of the killing in October 2000 of Israeli Arabs by soldiers, which led to two months of violence by Israeli Arabs, Israeli soldiers today do not use live bullets in confrontations with their own citizens. 

SLIDESHOW: Violence in Gaza

So what will Israel do now?
Israel's attack is vastly different from its failed attack against Hezbollah in Lebanon during the summer of 2006.

The leaders then were two civilians, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz, who had minimal military experience, and an air force leader as chief of staff.

They raised the bar incrementally, sending ground troops in always a step behind Israel's needs, according to the inquiry commission that studied Israel's failings after the war. Today, alongside the same chastened and more experienced Olmert are war legends Ehud Barak, who is now the defense minister, and Gabi Ashkenazi, the chief of staff.

Their modus operandi is overwhelming force, applied at the right time in the right places. All the troops and tanks Israel needs for a ground invasion are already in place, yards from Gaza.

Moreover, Israel has much better intelligence than it had in southern Lebanon. Gaza is closer to home, in fact in some senses, it is home; and no doubt Fatah men in Gaza are helping Israel's own secret services identify the targets.

Israel says it is ready for a ground invasion, but that needn't be one sweeping attack. It could be quick forays and pullbacks. It could be an armored division demolishing one area at a time.

However, Hamas remains strong. It has up to 20,000 well-trained and well-armed fighters who have been preparing to repel an Israeli ground assault for a year. It still has plenty of anti-tank rockets, secret tunnels and booby-traps. The price could be high on both sides.

But Israel's goals are not clear. Olmert said the aim is to restore a cease-fire on terms Israel considers favorable. Israel knows it can't destroy Hamas completely, or even its ability to fire rockets. But Israel does want to make the price so high that Hamas will not want to fire any more rockets.

The model is the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who after Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon -- after he kidnapped two Israeli soldiers -- said if he had known the reaction from Israel, he would have never kidnapped the soldiers. And in the Israeli parliament on Monday, Barak declared that this is a "war to the bitter end against Hamas."

Essentially, Israel wants to destroy as much as possible of Hamas military infrastructure, teach Hamas the same lesson, and reach a cease-fire that will last.

But Hamas still has an arsenal of weapons, including thousands of rockets, suicide bombers ready to attack, and the support of its people in Gaza. Israel will overwhelm Hamas, but could yet suffer some nasty surprises.

The only other way the fighting could end soon is the way it has in the past: An Israeli rocket hits a school or an apartment building, killing a hundred people. Then Israel will not be able to withstand international pressure to call off the attack.

By Eric Baculinao
NBC News Beijing bureau chief

Three Chinese navy ships set sail today to join the international fight against pirates off the coast of Somalia, marking a defining moment in China's efforts to project its force and gain a greater role in maintaining global peace and security.

But the deployment is also triggering concerns that China may be slowly giving up the long-standing "lie-low" strategy that Deng Xiaoping had espoused to guide China's diplomatic and security strategy.

The task force — consisting of two missile-armed destroyers and one supply ship — is China's first significant long-range naval combat mission since the 15th century Ming dynasty period, according to observers.

"It's the first time we go abroad to protect our strategic interests armed with military force," said Wu Shengli, commander of the Chinese Navy, at a ceremony to see off the approximately 1,000 sailors, according to Xinhua news agency.

"It is a huge breakthrough in China's concepts about security," Li Wei, director of the anti-terrorism research center at the China Institute of Contemporary Relations, told China Daily.

Deng's 24-character strategy
The mission — will provide armed escort to Chinese merchant vessels as well as foreign ships that seek protection against pirates — is seen by experts as symbolic of China's growing self-confidence and rising global status, which brings into question the continued validity of Deng's previous ideas on strategy.

In the early 1990s, Deng propounded a so-called 24-character strategy, a succinct guide for the conduct of China's diplomatic and military affairs, which essentially shunned unnecessary international entanglements or provocations. "Observe calmly, secure our position, hide our capacities and bide our time, be good at maintaining a low profile and never take the lead," were the key elements of Deng's strategic dictum.

However, according to Professor Yan Xuetong, director of International Studies Institute at Tsinghua University, times are changing.

"There is no issue here of going against Deng's lie-low policy of the '90s because at that time we had very little businesses and interests abroad, we mainly attracted businesses and investments into China," he said.

"But now China has expanding economic interactions with the world, and we have to adopt the necessary means to deter the illegal attacks on China's growing interests and businesses abroad," he added, citing the pirates' increasing attacks on Chinese merchant ships.

"We are entering a new stage in China's foreign policy reflecting the new stage in our development and relations with the world," he added.

For Professor Zhu Feng, director of International Security Program at Peking Univesity, China's anti-piracy flotilla is more a "symbolic" projection of force, credible enough for purposes of patrolling.

"Technically speaking, it is not a very substantial display of power, essentially a gesture that China's navy is ready for some international exposure and capable of making contributions to international peacekeeping mission," he said. "This doesn't necessarily mean giving up Deng's strategy on foreign policy."

Growing power but no 'China threat'
Professor Yan argues that China's naval deployment is sign that China's military capability is undergoing a "strong momentum of development" but that there is no basis for concern that China is a growing military threat.

"Whether China will be a threat or not should be judged not on the basis of its capability but on the basis of its policy," he said. "The U.S. has vastly superior military and naval capability but nobody talks of an 'America threat'."

Yan cited the 1999 NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade as a turning point in China's military modernization. "But the speed and efficiency of China's military modernization are moderate to low, compared to the U.S., so the gap between the two is not getting narrower," he said.

For Professor Zhu Feng, China's decision shows China's "growing importance and growing self-confidence" in world affairs.

"For deploying the navy ships, China has done its cost-benefit calculation and the conclusion was that it would benefit China's image and interests," he said.

"It won't be cheap," he added.

The Chinese naval mission will last for three months, after which replacement will be decided based on the conditions then. Its final diplomatic and security impact still remains to be seen.

 KABUL, Afghanistan – Alberto Cairo describes himself as moody, temperamental, impatient and pushy. But to the disabled patients he has treated for 19 years at the Red Cross Rehabilitation Center – most of them victims of violence in this war-torn country – he is an angel of mercy.

"If you see someone coming here depressed, and you see if after a few minutes he's a little less depressed, and then after a few days he's even better,  and then he starts smiling again – that's a huge reward," Cairo said. "What can you expect, more than that?" he asked.

In a back corner of the Red Cross center's male ward, 12-year-old Mohammed smiled broadly as Cairo walked over to him. Mohammed was sitting with his younger brother, Ahmad, on the edge of a cot. His one good foot, shod in a torn shoe, dangled down.

VIDEO: 'Angel of mercy' gives hope to Afghan disabled

"Look at him," Cairo said to me. "Sometimes he uses his prostheses and sometimes he doesn't. He's a naughty boy, but no one at home is really taking care of him," he said.

The lanky Cairo inspected the stump of Mohammed's amputated leg and affectionately ruffled his younger brother's hair before moving on through the ward, dashing in and out of the center's therapy rooms in his mid-length Red Cross smock.

The gray-haired Italian lawyer turned physiotherapist, teased and scolded the male patients in fluent Dari, their native language. He hugged the kids and then bicycled over to the female area to chat with the women. Cairo, 51, seemed to be everywhere at once, the driving force at the clinic, which is the largest orthopedic center in the world for disabled persons. 

"When you lose your leg, you don't only lose your leg, you lose your heart, your mind, you feel nothing," he said.

It was not in Cairo's plan to come to Afghanistan. He was hired by the Red Cross to go to Africa but then two weeks before his departure, they told him it would not be Africa, but Afghanistan instead. He was so surprised, he recalled, that he thought of only one question to ask: What would the weather be like so he would know how to pack? That was 19 years ago.

"It's very rewarding, this work," Cairo said. "If I give something, I get back so much that I'm the one who gets a lot from them," he said.

Carol Grisanti / NBC News

Alberto Cairo, right, meets with patients at the Red Cross Rehabilitation Center in Kabul.

Cairo has kept the clinic up and running through half a dozen Afghan governments – from the communists to warring warlords to the Taliban. Unfortunately the near constant warfare in Afghanistan since the Soviets invaded in 1980 has left a diverse pool of patients in need of prostheses. 

"When they come to us they are patients – sometimes with big turbans or military uniforms or long beards – but they are patients," he said.

At this sprawling center in the heart of Kabul, I marveled as the men, women and children – struggling to walk on prostheses or hobbling about on crutches – still managed to smile. I was amazed to see disabled employees push amputees in wheelchairs and acknowledge me with a big grin and a warm "hello." Even the clinic's mascot, a black male dog named Susie, extended his left paw in greeting while gracefully balancing on his two remaining good legs.

"It's a place where people start again," Cairo told me. "It's difficult with a lot of problems, but it's a place of hope," he said. "That's what I wish to communicate to everybody."

But, Cairo insisted, physical rehabilitation alone is not enough. The final aim is social reintegration: to help the disabled feel alive again with education, trade skills and a job.

"It's very important to put them back into society with a role. You can give all the legs you want, if you don't do this it's nothing," he said. "That's the way to give them dignity."

Cairo wanted the center to be an example, so he created jobs. Ninety-nine percent of the 320 employees at the center are disabled, working as therapists and clerks helping more than 300 patients who come in everday for treatment or as craftsmen making artificial limbs, wheelchairs and crutches.

It's a form of "positive discrimination," says Cairo. "It's a center of disabled people working for disabled people," he said.

VIDEO: Alberto Cairo describes his work in his own words

Patients turned craftsmen 
In a workroom next to the garden, 46-year-old Abdul Wahab was screwing the foot of an artificial leg onto the rest of the prostheses. His bench was cluttered with tools and prostheses parts; one artificial leg, already finished, had a sneaker and gray sock fitted and attached.

Wahab, a former soldier in the Afghan army, lost his leg in a landmine accident 15 years ago during the Afghan civil war. He came to the clinic for treatment and afterwards Cairo arranged for vocational training and a job. He said he feels almost normal now and owes everything to Cairo.

At the center, the former patients turned craftsmen produce 15,000 artificial legs a year. Others have learned to make copies of western-designed wheelchairs; to import a wheelchair would cost $500, but a homemade Afghan one costs $150 as well as providing jobs and teaching a trade.

"Maybe in the future we can even export," Cairo said. "Who knows; this is the next step," he added.

Carol Grisanti / NBC News

Patients at the Red Cross Rehabilitation Center in Kabul, Afghanistan.

Cairo sees even further benefits. His current pet project is to advance micro-credit loans of up to $600 to patients who are interested in starting a small business of their own. The results have been good, Cairo explained that 6,000 people have been able to take advantage of the Red Cross financing program in Kabul alone.

"I go to see them in the bazaar," he said. "Now they are sitting beside the desk or inside a shop and they are businessmen. It's dignity again."

"The happiness is huge, huge, huge," he added.

"There is so much to do. It would be criminal – it would be selfish – to leave. I want to stay," he said.

Zahara, 13, and her older cousin, Shamsiya, were walking to the Mirwais Mina girl's school in Kandahar, Afghanistan when three men on motorbikes suddenly blocked their path and sprayed something in their faces.

They thought it was water - just a prank - until it started to sting. The two girls were the victims of a brutal acid attack. Their crime according to the militants who threw the acid: going to school. Now NBC News' Jim Maceda reports on how they have become the faces of defiance in Kandahar.

VIDEO: Afghan schoolgirls defy Taliban

BEIJING – The number eight is considered so auspicious here that the Chinese leadership decided to launch the Summer Olympic Games at 8 p.m. on the eighth day of the eighth month of the year.

The number eight has long suggested luck and good fortune because in Mandarin it sounds like the word for prosperity, as Raymond Lo, a feng shui expert, explained to us back in July. But, depending on the time cycle mapped out on the Chinese calendar of elements, eight could have positive or negative portents. "This year [suggests] the earth is not stable," said Lo. "And, also, the number eight also represents children."

Reuters file

China's national flag is raised during the opening ceremony of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games at the National Stadium, also known as the Bird's Nest, on August 8, 2008.

Indeed 2008 turned out to be a turbulent year for China — and two of the worst disasters befalling its youth were the Sichuan earthquake and the baby milk scandal.

The quake, which struck early on a May afternoon, destroyed thousands of classrooms and may have killed as many as 19,000 children out of the estimated 90,000 people killed or missing.

And in September, just two weeks after the Olympics ended, the public learned that a leading brand of powdered baby formula contained melamine (a chemical used to artificially boost the milk's protein content), which was later reported to have killed at least six infants and sickened nearly 300,000 others.

Between the success of the Summer Olympics and everything else, 2008 was, as cultural critic Raymond Zhou observed, "a year of extremes" for China.

Click here to read the rest of Adrienne Mong's report on China's tumultuous year.

Eric Baculinao is the NBC News Beijing Bureau Chief. He first moved to China from the Philippines in 1971 as a member of a visiting youth delegation and has lived in China ever since.

BEIJING – I remember the palpable air of excitement in our school as the news began to trickle in.

Thirty years ago, on Dec. 18, 1978, a pivotal secret meeting of China's Communist Party leadership began, concluding in a decisive victory for Deng Xiaoping.

Courtesy Eric Baculinao

Eric Baculinao, center of back row, in a 1970's group photo outside of Mao's village home.

The party's decision to shift the country's focus to economic modernization marked the beginning of China's new era of open door policies and economic reform. But for foreign students like us, there was a more practical, immediate cause for celebration

'Confused' gatekeeper
Deng was popular because he symbolized open-mindedness and pragmatism, as opposed to the Maoist radicalism and isolationism of the past. Foreign students in Beijing took Deng's political ascendancy as a signal, at last, for throwing away restrictions and relating with China and the Chinese people in a new and normal way.

For weeks, my dormitory on the campus of the Beijing Language Institute pulsated with dance parties, as if Boney M and the Bee Gees were the anthem of reform.

The restrictive system of curfews and gate registration – that effectively barred Chinese guests or Chinese girl friends during late hours – broke down. I once asked the old gatekeeper why he was no longer doing the job of screening and registering guests.

"It's supposed to be open-door now," he said. "I'm not sure, I'm confused."

Xidan Democracy Wall and the missing modernization
Deng's victory immediately emboldened many Beijing citizens to freely express their pent-up views on the wrongs of the past with declarations posted on the long brick wall located on the shopping street of Xidan.

The so-called Xidan Democracy Wall, which existed from early 1978 to late 1979, would turn out to be a transformative political event, which presaged the enduring conflict between the open economy and the closed politics that Deng espoused, that would play out in a more dramatic fashion with the 1989 Tiananmen uprising.

We visited the Democracy Wall a few times, attracted by the unprecedented political debates, as well as the chance to improve our Chinese.

 "We need no gods or emperors…Freedom and happiness are our sole objectives," declared Wei Jingsheng, China's foremost dissident and author of the document "Fifth Modernization," which urged that democracy be added to the four modernizations program that only included industry, agriculture, technology and military.

Deng used the Democracy Wall movement to pressure and oust his Maoist opponents, but when the spearhead turned to Deng himself, the Democracy Wall was banned, and Wei himself ended up in jail, accused of trying to subvert communist rule. Wei spent almost 18 years in prison, before he was deported to the United States for a life of exile.

Eric Baculinao / NBC News

The Democracy Wall is long gone; Xidan today has the Bank of China as a landmark instead.

'Charlie Two Shoes' and finding a 'common ground'
I began working for NBC News under Beijing Bureau Chief Sandy Gilmour soon after the bureau opened in late 1982. One memorable story we did was that of Charlie Two Shoes, which illustrates how China dealt with Western media in the early years of the open-door policy.

In 1946, U.S. Marines stationed in China during World War II adopted an 11-year-old boy and nicknamed him "Charlie Two Shoes" because that was easier to pronounce than his real name Tsui Chi Hsii. Charlie lived and learned English from his Marine buddies until 1949, when the Communist revolution forced the Americans out of China.
 
Charlie Two Shoes suffered imprisonment and humiliation as a suspected U.S. spy, but he clung on to his hopes. And true enough, by 1983, Charlie reestablished contact with his buddies, who in turn devised a plan to invite him to America.

Finding Charlie and obtaining media access was a challenge, as his village and vast areas of Shandong province remained off-limits to foreigners, even after four years of the open-door policy.

We negotiated repeatedly with the local government, and eventually we found common ground, convincing them that the story would benefit the newly re-established relations between the United States and China.

But there were compromises. We agreed not to venture into Charlie's village, but that rather the local government would transport him to Tsingdao, where Sandy could interview him for an exclusive report. We covered Charlie's departure for America, where he was joined years later by his family. The lesson of his story became an important guide for future news gathering in China.

VIDEO: Three young Chinese reflect on what 30 years of economic reform has meant to them.

Deng and Mao: the unconventional wisdom
When Deng passed away in 1997, his legacy as the architect of China's reform appeared secure.

It is conventional wisdom to credit Deng for China's rising power and prosperity today.  But one question still remains, why did Deng insist to the very end that his predecessor, Mao Zedong, who instigated the disastrous Cultural Revolution, remained 70 percent correct, and only 30 percent wrong?

A review of China's party history and the Sino-Soviet split in the 60s would seem to yield one explanation.

Deng came at just the right historical moment. It can be argued that had Deng become China's leader at an earlier stage, his capitalist-oriented "economy first" program would have brought him close to the Soviet leaders who tried similar reform after the death of Stalin.

Seeking independence from the Soviets, Mao raised the primacy of ideology over economics – which led to the Cultural Revolution – but he also instigated a global strategic maneuver that brought China closer to America and the West in an anti-Soviet united front.

In a sense, Deng's capitalist reform and open-door policies, which envisaged closer cooperation with the West, only became possible because of the anti-Soviet independence and strategic platform that Mao had built.

'Thirty years east of the river…'
Today, China is still grappling with Deng's legacy. The nation is at a "crossroads," said Hu Xingdou, outspoken professor of economics at the Beijing Institute of Technology.

Despite a decade of economic boom, the current crisis and growing unrest is overshadowing the anniversary of the start of Deng's reforms. Hu likened China's transition to a Chinese saying, "30 years east of the river, 30 years west of the river."

"In the past 30 years, China has achieved progress but has also accumulated a great deal of contradictions," he explained.

"It is a moment of serious test, either the contradictions will cause greater turmoil, or they will lead to greater opening and reform, reform not just of economics, but political reform, institutional reform and democracy," he added.

Recent World Blog posts from Beijing:
Amid growing unrest, will China change its ways?
China begins to feel economic squeeze
China's $586 billion plan - is it enough?

 

With Tehran nestled in a basin between mountains,and most cars well over 20 years old, air pollution is a major problem. Thick smog blankets the city leaving some residents suffering from a range health issues such as burning eyes to respiratory problems. NBC News' Ali Arouzi reports from Tehran.

VIDEO: Pollution problems plague Tehran

   

BANGKOK – Someone once said living in Thailand is like having a sports day every day. But instead of having five teams in five colorful jerseys compete the way Thais do in primary school, we only have yellow and red, sported respectively by anti- and pro-government protesters who take turns venting their angst in the streets.

The yellow-clad protesters, or the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), recently made themselves known internationally by blockading Bangkok airports. The country was forced to shut down its air links, leaving roughly 300,000 travelers stranded while damaging the country's economy. 

AP

Protesters attack a car coming out of parliament with rocks after the voting for the country's new prime minister in Bangkok, Thailand on  Dec. 15.Â

But just as the yellows protesters left the streets, and the new prime minister – the third in half a year – was named by parliament on Monday, the protesters in red shirts showed up. 

Red protesters
The protesters in red shirts are formally known as the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship (DAAD), but are better known as staunch supporters of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

DAAD emerged after Thaksin was ousted by a military coup in 2006. They have campaigned against military interference in politics and the military-drafted constitution, while the yellows have repeatedly called for the army to take control of the divisive country.

The reds sometimes choose to stage a rally close to the yellows' venue, provoking angry confrontations. The last couple of months saw some gang-style clashes that involved knives, golf clubs, homemade bombs, and guns in Bangkok and other cities, including a recent shooting on Bangkok highway.

Like its counterpart, DAAD has cultivated supporters over the years through its own satellite television channel, and talk show, "Truth Today," on state-run TV. "Truth Today" presenters are a former government spokesman and members of the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party.

When the yellows' airport siege ended with a court ruling on Dec. 2 that dissolved the ruling People's Power Party and handed a five-year political ban to former premier Somchai Wongsawat, who is Thaksin's brother-in-law – the reds took up the protesting mantle once again.

DAAD leaders accused the military of masterminding the formation of the new government and of pressuring Thaksin's allies to back the opposition party – a move that they called "silent coup" or "coup in disguise."

As legislators met to elect the new Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva at the parliament on Monday morning, dozens of red-shirted protesters tried to block access and threw stones and objects at vehicles leaving the parliament. Lawmakers in rural provinces also experienced house blockades and received threats and funeral wreaths in front of their residences.  

So this could be the beginning, or, more precisely, the return, of more protests.

 "We won't cause a problem if we continue to protest," said a middle-aged man at a rally on Saturday. "Because we won't close airports like the PAD. We're not crazy. We just exercise our constitutional rights."

His smile was so earnest, I was almost sold.

But then my thoughts wandered back to the days of the yellow-clad protesters. They also had reassuring smiles and said the same thing about exercising one's rights and respecting others.

Perhaps the reds and the yellows have more things in common than they would admit. 

BAGHDAD – Many Iraqis were surprised when an Iraqi reporter hurled his shoes at President George W. Bush during a press conference with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Sunday. While some Iraqis were shocked, others said the shoe-throwing was an act of valor.
But in general, many Iraqis believe that the insult directed towards Bush has really reflected badly on them – particularly because of their long history of traditions and customs that focus on respecting the guest – even if that guest is considered an "enemy."

VIDEO: Bush dodges flying shoe in Baghdad

"It is a reckless act and it will have bad effect on Iraqi journalists," said Emad Saleem, 40, a reporter for the Saudi Akhabria satellite TV channel. "Our picture as people of the fourth power will be weakened."

Mais Hassan, a 35-year-old editor for the Iraqi Belad newspaper, agreed. "This is not the good way to express one's resentment. The correspondent could yell at Bush or curse him to show his objection to his policies in Iraq."

Aida Mohammed, a 42-year-old housewife, took issue with the act because she believed it reflected badly on all Iraqis. "This is impolite act and it is not like the Iraqis," said Mohammed. "We are known for welcoming the guest – even if he is an enemy. Arabs say welcoming the guest is a must, even for one's enemy."

Likewise, Salah Meead, a 31-year shopkeeper, felt that the act was actually disrespectful to Iraq's Prime Minister Maliki. "This guy must respect Iraqi PM (Maliki) because he represents all Iraqi people. And if he doesn't have a bit of respect for Bush, because he is a criminal of war, then he can show it by, for example, leaving the conference hall. This act is against us (Iraqis)."

VIDEO: NBC News' producer Ghazi Balkiz explains how witnessing the shoe toss was 'surreal'

But Salam Jabar, a 48-year-old journalist, defended the act of a fellow newsman. "We are proud of what the correspondent did when he sent two Iraqi missiles from his feet to the head of dirty Bush…History will record this act with gold."

Jamal Salam, a 25-year-old driver, was suspicious of the true intentions of the reporter Muntadar al-Zeidi. "I think this guy wanted lights to be focused on him. If he wants publicity, he is a journalist and through his good reporting he can achieve that. It was a wrong way to become a celebrity."

While the reactions to the shoe-toss vary, many Iraqis still believe that Bush has done well by them by making them get rid of Saddam Hussein and that he is not to be blamed for the consequences of toppling the dictator.    

BEIJING – Against the bleak winter sky, the white-tiled two-story building in the southwestern outskirts of Beijing looked depressing and non-descript.

But the location, iron-grilled windows and the colored gate with Olympic mascots, fit the description of the "black jail" where Li Chunxia and Men Aijing say they spent several days and nights in forced confinement.

Eric Baculinao / NBC News

Exterior of alleged "black jail" on the southwestern outskirts of Beijing.

The so-called black jail, used to temporarily detain disgruntled citizens to prevent them from holding embarrassing protests in Beijing, is just one of the methods of control used by China's officialdom to protect political stability.

However, as the pain of global economic crisis spreads across China, with thousands of factories closed and millions laid off, there is growing fear among experts that China's social unrest could exceed the intensity of previous years, and that old methods may no longer suffice to forestall greater turmoil.

Li and Men are protesters from Henan province in central China, who came to Beijing to see if they could find a more receptive audience for their complaints about local corruption.

"Coming to Beijing, seeking out President Hu Jintao, is like looking for one's own parents to ask for help," Men said as she explained her efforts to seek government attention to the fact that her husband's pension was unpaid.

Li, on the other hand, was seeking compensation for the closure of her clothing factory, which she blamed on the corruption of a local court. The two said they were detained in the black jail for several days and released.

Eric Baculinao / NBC News

Li Chunxia, left, and Men Aijing, right, the two protesters who said they were temporarily detained in a "black jail" in Beijing.

In previous years, protesters across China were routinely rounded up and taken to homeless transfer centers. In 2003, the government banned homeless transfer centers, and soon after, so-called black jails emerged as alternative places to temporarily detain petitioners.

The latest trends however show the growing complexity of social unrest in recent years, with disparate and individualized grievances now sometimes exploding into unprecedented "mass incidents" – prompting a significant rethinking of government strategy.

China's foremost scholar on the issue is sociologist Yu Jianrong. He described the new phenomenon as "anger-venting incidents," when generalized anger that has built up over time gets released after an incident – sometimes a relatively minor one – resulting in the quick mobilization of a large number of people who sometimes engage in extremely violent behavior.

In a pioneering study, Yu attributes the increasing frequency of mass incidents in China, now estimated at close to 80,000 a year, to the predatory nature of the capitalist system and unequal benefits for the citizenry from economic development, the greater and improper use of the police, and the popular distrust of the judiciary. 

The most dramatic recent example was the Longnan incident in the northwest province of Gansu in November. Disputes over the government land seizures for development erupted into violent protests where people used iron rods, axes, hoes and even bricks and flowerpots to attack local Communist Party officials and policemen. Some estimates put the number of anti-government protestors as high as 10,000. 

In turn, the handling of the Longnan incident has illustrated a significant change in government strategy, according to observers.

In its aftermath, China's public security chief Meng Jianzhu called on the police to "be fully aware of the challenge brought by the global financial crisis and try their best to maintain social stability." 

Projecting a softer side to police enforcement, Meng declared that "in the handling mass incidents, we must be clear that the chief tasks of the public security authorities are to maintain order at the scene, ease conflicts, avoid excessive steps and prevent the situation from getting out of control." In a coordinated move, Gansu's governor invited representatives of the rioters to a dialogue.

The changing role of the police, and the greater use of dialogue and persuasion in the handling of conflict, has not been lost on Hu Xingdou, professor of economics and humanities at the Beijing Institute of Technology. 

"The excessive use of police force in the past was damaging to the public image of the police," he said. "The method of dialogue and assuaging the people, and not lightly using the police to deal with economic disputes, is the correct method."

Mao Shoulong, professor of public administration at Renmin University in Beijing, agrees that recent trends point to a "more service-oriented" approach by China's police force. "The new approach is quite effective and should help develop a new sense of trust between the police and the citizens, between the government and the people," Mao said.

Eric Baculinao / NBC News

Iron grill windows of suspected "black jail."

There are divergent views about how serious the future challenges could be, but China's President Hu Jintao himself set the tone with a rare warning that the crisis will be a "test of governance" for the ruling Communist Party.

For Zhou Tianyang, a leading Communist party scholar, the prospect of mass unemployment could dramatically increase theft and robbery and other "menaces to social stability." He wrote in the China Economic Times that this will likely generate "mass-scale social turmoil."

Professor Mao agreed, and warned that the social unrest gathering could turn into the "most serious challenge since the 1989," referring to the Tiananmen uprising.

"The difference, however, is that the students were demanding democracy then, while the people this time have very specific complaints," he said. The sense of danger will likely drive the government to adjust strategy and adopt "more scientific and democratic governance," he added.

VIDEO: Economic downturn reaches China

Others have dismissed fears that increasing unrest could shake China. "There is no serious challenge to the status quo," said Damien Ma, a China analyst at Eurasia Group, a global political risk research and consulting firm based in New York.

"One should remember that in 1989, it was the elites who protested in Tiananmen, not rural farmers," he explained. "Elites are also the ones who are best equipped to organize for mass events through technology such as the Internet and mobile phones."

"The likely scenario will be isolated incidents among workers," Ma added, "but nothing on the scale that could threaten the party-state's survival."

But one area Ma believes is important to watch is whether rising unemployment will seriously affect college graduates and the middle class who have benefited from China's economic policies. Like the elites who organized Tiananmen, they could prove a force to contend with.

Meantime, a party official from Henan Province's Nanyang City liaison office based in Beijing agreed to a brief telephone interview about the reported "black jail" that the women said his office oversaw.

"No, it's not true," the local official Wang Tao said. "We don't do that to our people."

His tone was diplomatic and friendly, a seeming change from the angry language that officials would invariably use when dismissing inquiries about sensitive issues in the past.

More on China and the economic downturn:
Trouble in Toyland: U.S. recession jolts China
Chinese protest on human rights anniversary

UITENHAGE, South Africa – In South Africa's Xhosa language, "Esihle" means "A Beautiful Gift." And indeed little Esihle, a three-year-old girl small for her age, would be a beautiful gift for anybody.

Her eyes are wide and she smiles quickly. She is kind: as I look on, she puts an arm around her friend and pats her gently on the head, then laughs silently. When she looks up at you, you have to take her in your arms.

Paul Goldman / NBC News

NBC News' Martin Fletcher visits with his new friend Esihle.

But Esihle lives in a children's home because her parents can't cope. They're healthy enough, but they live under a bridge in Uitenhage in South Africa's Eastern Cape Province. Healthy enough for poor people here means it has not been confirmed that they are HIV positive. But in a country where one out of every five is HIV positive, social workers say that the odds are high that at least one of her parents is infected.

A social worker found Esihle in July, dirty, hungry and crying, and brought her here, to this home where my producer, Paul Goldman, and I have been filming an altogether different story.

I hold Esihle with one arm and with the other I point the video camera at her, and flip round the viewfinder, so she can see herself on the little screen. She's only 3 years old, so at first she looks wide-eyed at herself, then she looks at me in wonder, looks again at herself and laughs out loud. She rolls her eyes. Sticks out her tongue. Waggles it around.

Hey Esihle, I say, mangling the pronunciation, what do you think? She looks at me silently, smiling, and looks again in the viewfinder. I jiggle her up and down and say again, you like? She doesn't respond, just laughs, and points to the screen so that her friends can see her too.

A social worker comes over and says, "She can't hear you – she's deaf. And she can't speak – she's mute." I feel as if I've just been punched in the stomach.

Paul Goldman

Esihle gets a hug from NBC's Martin Fletcher.

I look down at Esihle and she looks up and our eyes meet. I smile and she smiles. She puts her head against my shoulder and with one tiny hand, touches my cheek. I feel my eyes warm and begin to sting. The social worker says, "Her brother is here too. He's epileptic. The parents can't cope."

There are 42 children in this home, aged 3 months to 18 years old. Many are orphans and some are HIV positive. They are cared for by half a dozen women who busy themselves all day, cleaning, feeding, playing, teaching, singing, giving love and affection. The home is on the edge of a dirt-poor township where it's normal to be HIV positive, unemployed and live in a shack made of corrugated iron and cardboard and covered in plastic.

VIDEO: Fighting AIDS, one youth at a time

So in this safe, warm place little Esihle can count herself lucky, in a way. Certainly you would think, from her smile, that she is the happiest little girl. And to meet her is to receive a beautiful gift, although a sad one too.

Thanks to improved security in Baghdad, Iraqis are able to celebrate Eid, one of Islam's most important holidays, for the first time in many years. With visits to family and friends, Iraqis enjoy the new security gains.

VIDEO: Iraqis celebrate Eid

JERUSALEM – On the first day of Eid al-Adha, the four-day Festival of Sacrifice which began on Monday, Muslims are expected to sacrifice a sheep and give it to poor people. But Samer Khaleel, 65, who lives in the Jabalia Refugee Camp in Gaza wasn't able to do that, he was waiting for someone else to bring him meat so he could celebrate with his family. 

For the last two years Khaleel has been without a job – the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees has been helping him provide for his family. 

 

SLIDESHOW: Life in Gaza under the Israeli blockade

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He was distraught about the fact that he could not provide for his family during one of Islam's most important holidays when Muslims usually enjoy lavish meals of lamb or beef and give gifts of clothes, sweets and money to family and friends.

"I was wearing my pajamas all day, asking God for someone to bring me meat to cook for my family, five of my children couldn't go out, they have no new clothes, they felt shame," he said over the phone from the refugee camp. "I am hurt."

While the global economic crisis has put a dent in the celebrations of many Muslims this year, Palestinians living in Gaza are particularly feeling the pain because of Israel's stepped up blockade of the area in response to ongoing rocket attacks by Hamas militants.

Approximately 1.5 million Palestinians are confined to the narrow coastal strip of land. Gaza's borders have been closed since Nov. 4 except for five days, including Tuesday, when they were temporarily reopened to allow in essential aid supplies like food and medicine. As a result there are major shortages of basic goods – from fuel to food. And now there are shortages of cash, too.

In an effort to tighten the blockade further, Israel suspended the transfer of cash to banks in Gaza on Dec. 4, which prevents 77,000 civil servants from getting their salaries. So the families of those workers aren't celebrating Eid either – directly affecting an estimated 460,000 people.

Gaza's economy runs on shekels, the Israeli currency. Israel says it is blocking the shipments of shekel bills into Gaza because they end up in the hands of the Hamas militants.

Since the money transfers were halted on Thursday, the banks have been closed because bank officials feared there would be violence from angry costumers.

The World Bank warned Israel over the weekend that the cash shortages could lead to the collapse of the commercial banking system in Gaza and that there could be "serious humanitarian implications" for the Palestinians living there. 

When Israel temporarily reopened some border crossing on Tuesday, some shipments of diesel fuel for Gaza's only power plant were allowed in.

Otherwise, for the last month, the power plant has been all but silent – leaving the lights out for most residents – as a result of the blockade on fuel imports. Jamal Al Khudari, the chairman of the "Popular Committee against the Siege" who is also a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council, says that the power plant has been operating at 20 percent capacity for the past several days. During the past month, the plant has relied on limited supplies smuggled through the underground tunnels with Rafah, Egypt.

VIDEO: Thanks to security improvements, Iraqis celebrate Eid

Civilians suffer
Israel has made clear that the intended target of the blockade is the Hamas government, which seized control of Gaza in June 2007, and who they blame for the rockets that continue to target Israel. But the civilian population has clearly suffered the most.

"What pain it is for me," said Fares Massror, 45, who lives in Gaza and has seven children. "I can't find the words to explain to them why I can't buy them new clothes for the Eid."

Sari Bashi, Director of Gisha, an Israeli non-profit organization whose stated goal is to protect the freedom of movement of Palestinians, criticized the halt on bank transfers.

"Blocking the flow of cash to Gaza's banks threatens to completely topple Gaza's already battered economy, depriving 1.5 million people of basic needs and their right to a dignified livelihood," said Bashi. "It is not clear what the government of Israel wishes to achieve by destroying the economic and humanitarian foundations of Palestinian society."

Whatever their intentions, the Israelis have achieved one thing with the blockade, dampened Eid celebrations for Palestinians in Gaza this year.

With traffic in downtown Baghdad typically a snarled mess, the old commuter train has been re-introduced to combat commuter nightmares. Ride the train with NBC News' Kianne Sadeq as it dodges goats, cars and weaves through Baghdad.

VIDEO: All aboard... Baghdad's train

 MUSINA, South Africa – Watching the Zimbabwe refugees sitting here, just over the border in South Africa, was a strange scene.

On one hand, it was incredibly depressing to see women and children sitting on dirty cardboard boxes being used as beds – which are also probably their only belongings. On the other hand, their great spirit was hard to ignore.

Everyone was fascinated with my Sony camera. Kids always love looking straight into the camera lens expecting something to pop out. But here, in this awful place, the grownups were also giggling endlessly and laughing at every move I made.

VIDEO: Fleeing Zimbabwe, thousands of refugees enter South Africa

Here we were trying to capture the misery of the Zimbabwe refugee's plight and everyone was laughing at me.

How are they doing it?
Of course, not everyone was in good spirits. I was filming Precious Mashingadze and her three children who were all sitting under a makeshift tent made from rags to protect themselves from the strong sun. Precious was not happy.

"I'm alone with no man to take care of me. I want to go to Cape Town, but it's too far away," she said.

Precious has been sitting here with her three children for almost two months running away from poverty, starvation and cholera.

As a father, I could not stop thinking about how she was surviving. Wondering what do her kids do all day? What will she eat for lunch? What happens if one of her kids gets sick? The answer to all these questions is plain: nothing.

Just before I left she said to me, "Help us."

China's powerhouse economy is being hit by the global financial meltdown just three months after the success of the Olympics – potentially threatening the country's hard-won social stability gained after 30 years of robust growth. NBC News' Adrienne Mong reports from Beijing.

VIDEO: Economic fallout begins to reach China

MUSINA, South Africa – I saw terror in the eyes of the four men from Zimbabwe, although we were separated by three coiled rows of vicious razor-wire.

When they saw me they ran away, away from freedom in South Africa and back to oppressive, diseased, starving Zimbabwe. They thought Paul Goldman, my producer, and I were South African policemen who would jail them.

VIDEO: Life or death decision on the Zimbabwe-South Africa border

We had been driving along the border road between these two countries, hoping to spot refugees fleeing Zimbabwe. Sure enough, after only a few minutes we saw four men crouching in the bushes, just inside South Africa.

They had already snuck under the razor-wire, after a trek though the bush that normally takes several days, with no food or water. But when we stopped our vehicle and stepped out, cameras in hand, they panicked and desperately raced back to the country they had just fled, squeezing back under the wire. In his haste, one man abandoned his small, brown backpack.

I picked it up and waved after them and called out, "It's OK, we're just journalists, here's your bag, you can come back, we don't want to harm you."           

We knew that was true, but they didn't. What else would a policeman say other than, "It's OK, come back?" So they stood around uncertainly on the Zimbabwe side of the fence.

One man nervously waved his arms at his side in a gesture of trepidation and helplessness. The others hid in the trees and bush, but we could make them out. It was easy to spot the man in a bright red shirt among the green and brown trees.           

I called out again, "Don't be afraid. This is your chance, come through now before it is too late. We're just journalists."

They called out "Thank you," but stayed put.

Back to starvation or risk it all
They whispered among each other, uncertain. Behind them was the Zimbabwe army, patrolling their side of the border, looking for refugees just like them. If they were found, they would get arrested, jailed, maybe beaten, maybe even killed in Zimbabwe. The best they could hope for was hunger and starvation. U.N. officials warn that by March, half of Zimbabwe's population may not have enough to eat.

VIDEO: Cholera epidemic in Zimbabwe

Back in Zimbabwe, they would be exposed to cholera again, which is breaking out in epidemic proportions because sewage pipes are broken and bacteria has reached the drinking water, which often comes out green and smelly. The government has no money or means to fix it. Children play on dirt tracks slick with sewage. They admit to 600 dead from cholera, but the real number, aid agencies say, is more likely in the thousands. And as the rainy season begins this month, the flowing water will spread the disease more. UNICEF is making preparations for 60,000 sick. And neighboring South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana and Zambia fear the disease will hit them too.

So we waited – a standoff. The four men faced a grim choice. Hide in the bushes from us, and risk capture or worse; or trust us, and maybe get captured by the South African police, jailed, and deported back to Zimbabwe.

I called encouragement, and they answered with "Thank You," but they didn't move. As they wrestled with their dilemma, the solution for us was obvious. We had to abandon our hopes of seeing refugees flee Zimbabwe, and leave, allowing the men their stab at freedom. I said to Paul, "What's more important, their freedom or our story?"

VIDEO: Zimbabwean refugees flood border town

'Here, catch'
Before we left, we returned to the car to collect some supplies. At the fence, I laid the man's back-pack on a stone where they could see it, and I began to toss bottles of water across the fence. "Here, catch," I shouted, and lobbed the first bottle in a high arc, giving them time to spot it as it fell from the sky. "Good catch," I shouted, "OK! Here's another one." I threw one bottle for each man, and then called out, "And here are some apples and some fruit juice," and I laid them on the back-pack. "Good luck, guys," I shouted, "Good luck!"           

They clapped their hands and smiled and called back, "Thank you, thank you sir. God bless you."

Paul and I turned our backs to them, to the razor-wire fence, to the story, and walked back to our vehicle, and drove away. We didn't stop to film them from afar, or to even see if they crossed. We didn't want them to think it was a trick, we did not want them to be caught, on their side of the border or on ours. We just left them to their fate, hoping it would be a better one.  

An hour later we returned, driving back from our bed and breakfast. We stopped and walked to the boulder where we had left the back-pack, apples and juice and sure enough, it was all gone. We smiled at each other and walked away.

 BANGKOK, Thailand – A strange thing happened in Bangkok today on the king's 81st birthday. Very few people wore yellow.

In Thailand, colors represent different days of the week. Yellow is the royal color, since it stands for Monday and King Bhumibol Adulyadej was born on a Monday. On his previous birthdays Bangkok has been a sea of yellow. Not today.

AFP - Getty Images

Thai King Bhumibol Adulyadej sitting next to Queen Sirikit during a review of the honor guard for his birthday celebrations on Tuesday.

There may be a straightforward explanation for this. Yellow was the color worn by the royalist anti-government protesters, the Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which seized Bangkok's main airports and closed them for more than a week, causing immense damage to Thailand's economy and image.

Most Thais were appalled by this, and by the increasingly cult-like behavior of the PAD's leaders and the violence of their armed "security guards," and simply don't want to wear anything associated with them.

But the lack of yellow today does beg a bigger question: has the PAD by its actions damaged the very institution it claimed to be defending?

No show
The PAD is backed by conservative elements in the royal palace. Queen Sirikit has been quite open in her support, which emboldened the protesters. And it was this perceived royal backing that allowed them to act with such impunity, the police and army unwilling or unable to intervene.

The king himself has said nothing, which is why Thais were keenly awaiting his annual birthday address Thursday, which they hoped would help calm the charged political atmosphere here.

But the king didn't attend his eve-of-birthday gathering at the palace and there was no speech. That's never happened before during his six decades on the throne.

Instead Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn gave a brief greeting on his father's behalf. His sister, Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn then explained that her father has "some minor illness."

This has triggered fevered speculation: Is the ailing king seriously ill? Is he just fed up with the poisonous politics of his bickering subjects? Or is he sending a message?

Those who support the message theory say he's signaling his general disapproval of what's been happening, or perhaps he is trying to sow unease among political leaders by saying nothing and keeping them guessing as to where he stands.

Another theory has it that the king didn't want to say anything because he didn't want to be used and was aware that whatever he said would be seized upon and misconstrued by both sides.

Or perhaps the 81-year-old monarch just wanted a rest, suggesting by his absence that Thailand's politicians grow up and sort these things out for themselves, which they will have to learn to do with his inevitable passing.

We may never know, but certainly yellow is for now out of vogue.

Thailand's political maze - a beginners guide

TEL AVIV, Israel – Up to the age of 30, David Fiquette, who originally hails from Orlando, Fla., used to drink six glasses of vodka and shoot drugs everyday. Everything in David's world was falling apart – he had already lost several members of his family to either drug overdoses or suicide. It was then that David decided to change his way of life and do something for others.

Two years ago he opened a shelter for prostitutes in the middle of Tel Aviv's central bus station and called it "The Door for Hope." His mission is to provide food, showers and clean beds for women who work all night in the streets.

Watch the video to see how David is helping provide a safe shelter for a vulnerable portion of the population that is often forgotten.

VIDEO: Opening Israel's 'Door for Hope'

 SUVARNABHUMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, Bangkok - Serirat Prasutanond has perhaps the least enviable job in Thailand right now. "We are doing our best, really," he told me. "We want the tourists to start coming back to Thailand."

Prasutanond is the acting president of Suvarnabhumi, Bangkok's international airport, which was taken over and closed for a week by anti-government protesters, and today he was supervising the clean-up. He said the computer systems were fine and the inside of the vast terminal -- which resembled a refugee camps, strewn with bodies just a few hours earlier - was mostly cleared of rubbish.

SLIDESHOW: Thai unrest

Â

He has told the Thai media that the airport could be fully open by Friday, but was cautious when I asked him if this was realistic. "It all depends on security. The security systems have to be approved," he warned.

As we spoke, teams of cleaners hauled away bags of rubbish, and hundreds of sheets of cardboard, which the protesters had used as mats to sleep on. Others dusted and washed the floors, while earnest-looking airline officials hovered with clipboards. At a Thai Airways check-in desk, a supervisor told me their systems were fine and they'd soon be testing the baggage belts, which a few hours earlier were being used as beds. "There was no damage," she told me, "they (the protesters) were educated people," betraying her sympathy for a group that has largely drawn its support from Bangkok's middle class.

Outside, on the approach road to the terminal, barricades made of tires, sharpened wooden staves, razor wire and luggage trolleys, had been abandoned. Airport workers pushed one snake-like line of trolleys back towards the terminal, while policemen - conspicuous by their absence from the airport in recent days - tried gingerly to coil the wire.

A Thai Airways Boeing 747 did arrive from the resort island of Phuket early this afternoon, but passengers were handled at a small facility that usually serves crew members, away from the main terminal. A second flight was due to arrive from Jordon later in the afternoon, but passengers would likely be bussed into downtown Bangkok for immigration and customs checks.

VIDEO: Clean up continues at Bangkok airport

A team of security experts spent the day vetting the airport. The seizure by the anti-government protesters represents a huge security breach, and Thai and international authorities will have to be satisfied with the integrity of the system before the airport can be fully reopened.

One sign of U.S. security sensitivities came when a Los Angeles-bound Thai Airways flight had to stop in Japan for a full security check, before being allowed to fly onto U.S. territory. American authorities were not satisfied with the standards of security at U-Tapao air force base, from where the flight originated.

U-Tapao, a Vietnam-war era base, remains the main exit point for stranded tourists, now thought to number more than 200,000. It is now handling 40 to 50 flights a day, but the scene down there is crowded and chaotic. The system has been improved thanks to city-based check-in and immigration, one at a big convention center. Today Thai Airways suggested as an interim measure processing passengers for Suvarnabhumi at these same city facilities.

Regional airports, in Phuket and Chiang Mai, also are being used.

The anti-Government Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD), which had seized the airport, was today basking in its "victory" after Thailand's constitutional court brought the government down by dissolving the ruling party for electoral fraud at the last election, and disqualifying from office its leading officials, including the prime minister.

The Thai courts have played a far more assertive role in the last couple of years, since the Thai king appealed to the country's top judges to solve what he called the political "mess." They have now obliged, just ahead of the king's birthday Friday, but this does look more like an intermission rather than a solution to the crisis.

Only an intermission for crisis
The government and its coalition partners still have a majority in parliament, and members of parliament from the dissolved ruling party were preparing today to shift to another "shell" party, which will then form a government, holding onto power. They also are able to mobilize tens of thousands of their own supporters for street protests should they choose to do so, and would almost certainly win if Thailand were to hold another election tomorrow.

The PAD claims the government is a proxy of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, accused of corruption and misrule, and deposed in a 2006 coup. He is now in exile, but retains enormous support among Thailand's rural poor.

The PAD claims to be acting in the name of the king, and has already threatened to return to the barricades if it doesn't like the look of the new administration. In spite of its name, it is neither democratic, nor particularly representative of the people. It draws most of its support from the Royalist elite and Bangkok's middle class, though its seizure of the airport has cost it a lot of that support. It has a rather mangled view of democracy, and advocates largely scrapping Thailand's electoral system and replacing an elected parliament with a body largely appointed by worthy people, such as themselves.

They don't believe the poor and uneducated (the core of government support) can be trusted with the vote.

So, all-in-all, there could still be lively times ahead. The court decision has given a breather, but not much more.

Should tourists still come to Thailand? On balance, yes. The PAD is unlikely to repeat its seizure of the airports with all the enormous damage this has caused to Thailand's economy and image, and the on-going conflict will hardly be noticed by most visitors.

One British newspaper recently listed Thailand as one of the twenty most dangerous countries on the planet. This is absurd. But do be aware, there is far more to this kingdom than the legendary smile.

Related link: Thailand's political maze - A beginners guide

HAVANA – Cuba's government took a significant step toward improving relations with the Roman Catholic Church this past weekend. President Raul Castro attended mass with the island's Catholic hierarchy and thousands of faithful to beatify a 19th century Cuban friar known as the "father of the poor."

For months leading up to the beatification of Friar Jose Olallo Valdes, the Cuban press – which normally ignores religious news – published half a dozen stories depicting his life.

AP

Cuba's President Raul Castro, right, greets Cardinal Jose Saraiva Martins during the beatification ceremony for Friar Jose Olallo Valdeslallo Valdes on Nov. 29.Â

At the same time, no one interfered with the church as it put up posters with Olallo's portrait across the island.

Those events along with President Castro's surprise attendance Saturday at Camaguey's Church of the Virgin of Charity are being seen as positive signs of the growing rapprochement between Cuba's communist government and the Catholic Church.

Olallo lived from 1820 to 1889 when Cuba was a Spanish colony and dedicated his life to caring for the poor and sick in the central city of Camaguey. A member of the Hospitaller Order of St. John of God, Olallo helped the sick during an 1835 cholera epidemic and also tended to the wounded during Cuba's first war of independence (1868-1878) against Spain. His presence defied Spanish orders at the time that barred certain religious clergy from ministering in Cuba.

The Cuban Roman Catholic Church started Olallo's beatification in 1989, on the 100th anniversary of his death. According to Roman Catholic doctrine, this is Olallo's final step before canonization, when he will officially be recognized as a saint.

Cubans pray to the humble monk to help heal the sick. He is credited with the miraculous healing of a 3-year-old child suffering from an inoperable stomach tumor who recovered after her parents appealed to him in prayer for help.

Earlier this year, Pope Benedict XVI certified the miracle ascribed to Olallo after the family gave sworn testimony of their prayers and the child's doctors confirmed that the tumor disappeared with no lingering effects.

The ceremony, which took place some 300 miles east of Havana and broadcast on Cuban state television and radio, showed President Castro seated in the front row of the three-hour mass.

Cardinal Jose Saraiva, the Vatican envoy who presided over the ceremony, gave a sermon that paradoxically reflected some of the same ideals professed by the Cuban regime.

"In the face of a materialist culture that we see imposing itself everywhere and that pushes aside the weak and the poor, we learn from Olallo the virtues of the wisdom of God and how to love thy neighbor universally," said Saraiva.

The ceremony included a procession of thousands that extended for over a mile, carrying the monk's remains in a golden urn.

At the close, Castro personally greeted the Vatican emissary along with the Papal Nuncio Luigi Bonazzi, Cuban Cardinal Jaime Ortega and some two dozen more Cuban and foreign clergy.

The event is being seen as a landmark moment for Cuba's Catholic Church, whose pastoral work has been curtailed for almost half a century as a result of the friction with the island's atheist government.

Shortly after the Castro brothers came to power in 1959, the government expelled 136 priests and nationalized 350 parochial schools. All church activity was restricted to church property and community projects shut down.

While the church was never officially banned, it was widely frowned upon. Churchgoers were prohibited from joining the Communist Party – the power that controlled jobs, housing and many advantages in Cuban society. In the 1970s and 1980s, rank-and-file Catholics commonly complained about the discrimination they faced when seeking employment or college admission.

According to Cuban Cardinal Jaime Ortega "the tension started to diminish" in the 1980s with "an evolution on the part of the government."

But it wasn't until the 1990s when icy relations between the church and state began a real thaw.

In the early part of the decade the government abolished all references to atheism in its official documents and allowed religious believers to join the ruling Communist Party. Relations warmed even further when Pope John Paul II visited the island in 1998.

Then-president Fidel Castro met with the pope various times during his four-day visit, allowed local church leaders to mobilize their congregations to attend the papal events and even allowed the pope's mass to be broadcast over national TV and radio.

Since then, the Catholic Church has continued to press for fuller religious freedom. For instance, the church would like the right to bring in more missionaries and perform works of charity without first seeking government approval. It would also like to open its own schools and have a voice in the state-controlled media.

Last spring, Pope Benedict praised Cuban Church leaders during a meeting at the Vatican to discuss the status of their dioceses. The many "difficulties and limitations" placed on the Catholic Church in Cuba, Benedict said, have not stopped it from growing and reaching out to help the sick and the poor.

That may be truer today than ever.

After Cuba was hit by three hurricanes this season, the church and the government put differences aside and began working to aid storm victims. In an unprecedented partnership, the two institutions have been handing out food, medicines and roofing material to the half a million people left homeless. That cooperation is seen as another step forward in further improving church state relations.

CAIRO – Egyptian Captain Mahmoud Hammad quickly dispelled any notion that Somali pirates treat their captives well.       

"Any movement and they would put a gun to our heads or in our sides," he said of the pirates who seized his ship. "Every second, we didn't know what would happen next." 

Hammad was transporting a cargo of cement from Karachi to Djibouti with his 24 shipmates aboard the Mansoura, an Egyptian-owned, Panama-flagged ship, when pirates struck.

"On the third of September at 7:20 a.m., pirates surrounded us in two small boats, seven men to a boat. When we saw them, we rang the alarm bell to warn the crew." 

NBC News/Mohamed Muslemany

Captain Mahmoud Hammad, safe and sound back in Cairo after his 23-day pirate ordeal.Â

The captain's first thought: "How can we resist them? They have weapons. I have nothing. The second thought was that I wanted the crew to be safe. They threatened to hit us with rocket-propelled grenades and sink us if we didn't stop." 

The crew grabbed high-pressure fire hoses and began shooting water to sink the small boats, just as they had been trained to do. But water was no match for bullets. 

'Then the pirates climbed on board'
"When the pirates shot twice in the air, everyone dropped the hoses and ran to their cabins," said Hammad as he began to recount how the ship was seized. "Then the pirates climbed on board and began to round up the crew. Two men were missing and the pirates said they would shoot them if they didn't come out. We found the men sleeping in their cabins and brought them up. 

"They put three of the crew to work on the engines and told me to take the bridge.  They locked the rest in one cabin. Then they went through the ship's cabins and stole everything belonging to the crew and broke into the safe and stole the money. 

"When we finally dropped anchor off the northern coast of Somalia, I asked them to split the crew up between two cabins because 21 men locked in one cabin would suffocate.  They agreed and separated them in two cabins." 

Meanwhile a British warship followed them for six hours at a distance of five miles, aware that the Egyptian ship had been captured. The pirates were fearful, but the British ship did not interfere. Hammad's spirits were raised at the comforting presence of the ship, but soon dashed.

"I had hoped they would at least see the process and stop me," said Hammad. "At least if they stopped me in international waters they could have protected me, but they let me go to the pirate's home where he has support."

When they arrived in Somalia, 25 more pirates boarded the ship in addition to the original 14, each armed with a Kalashnikov and a handgun, and a total of three RPG launchers.  They were all young, between 20 to 26 years of age, with no apparent affiliations to Somalia's many militias, said Hammad. "They are fugitives. They are not from any tribe or faction in Somalia.  They are wanted men running from the law. They hurt the entire region." The pirates' isolation became painfully obvious when they ran short of food and water.

With 35 extra mouths to feed, the ship's provisions dwindled quickly. "When the water finished we had problems with them. When the food finished, we had even bigger problems." 

The pirates had no one on the mainland to re-supply them.  At first, they demanded the captain buy food and water. But he told them they had stolen the $15,000 intended to buy food.  The pirates told him they had already spent it all on qat, a mild narcotic popular in Somalia. 

"Finally they went to get food," said Hammad. "God knows if they stole it or what. But they would bring live sheep or goats, flour and sugar. We would do the butchering. They didn't know anything. They only wanted two things: qat and money."

The pirates forced the captain to sail to Eyl, a coastal town in Northern Puntland that has become a pirate haven where many captured ships await release. Hammad noted about 11 ships from such countries as Malaysia, Japan and Iran. 

Once at ease in their lair, the pirates began to demand a ransom of $3 million. Hammad became the middleman in high-stakes negotiations that would determine their survival. For 13 tense days, from 10 p.m. until 3 a.m. Hammad, who was in direct contact with a member of Egyptian intelligence and the ship's owner, bargained them down. 

"We told them the cement is ruined and nobody will want it. They will throw it in the sea. You damaged our ship's equipment and now the ship won't be worth its full price. So they came down to $2 million. I said no Egyptian will pay that price for the ship. They will say keep the ship and we will take the crew because they belong to their country.   The pirates finally came down to $600,000 and the ship's owner agreed to the price."

Hammad thought his problems were over but a new set of obstacles arose: how to get the money into the pirates' hands. The pirates' outlaw status and lack of affiliation to Somali or foreign groups prevented them from going inland to pick up the ransom or having it transferred to an account or individual. 

"They don't want to take their money from a bank, from inside the country, from outside the country. There was nobody to provide an ID number, nobody to go and get the ransom," explained Hammad. "The owner of the boat is telling them the ransom is with so and so in Somalia. They say they can't go and take it.  They say, 'If I go to that area, they will have my head.'"

Tempers flared as the pirates waited for the ransom to be delivered. They told the captain they had only taken his boat because they couldn't find an oil tanker. Anxious to make money, the pirates fought over the fate of their hostages.  

"They used to fight amongst themselves with guns every day on the ship. One of them was wounded when they were fighting." Hammad explained that the Egyptian crew administered first aid to one of their captors who had a bullet wound in his head.

"They fought every day because the time drew on and no ransom. Some of them wanted to sink our ship and kill the crew. But we knew they wanted the ransom." They ominously warned the captain that they had already murdered a Malaysian crew before sinking their ship.    

Finally, a member of Egyptian intelligence flew by private jet to the town of Galcaio near Eyl with the ransom paid by the ship's owner. Two days later recounts the captain, the crew was freed after a 23-day ordeal.

"I am happy to be alive. They took everything from us, money, mobile phones, clothes, presents we were bringing our children. It doesn't matter. The problem is the horror we saw. It was not an easy thing. When will I forget it? Of course it took a big psychological toll on all of us, young and old alike. We saw things that made us say maybe we will die the next second. Maybe they will pick me and say "Come here," and they will shoot me."     

Hammad has not worked since, although he has been asked repeatedly to sail the same waters.  "When the route is safe, I will go, but not until then."

He insists that only decisive action by the international community will end piracy. "My advice is not to other captains. What can captains do? My advice is to NATO. They should give a powerful response. The law requires them to protect shipping lanes. Where is their response?  They have to see where these things are coming from and stop. You have to strike them, and not let them enter the water." 

Egypt obliges all sailors to take a self-defense course, but Hammad believes such measures fail to deter piracy. "All of us took the same course. It is not useful. The solution is international, not personal. Nobody can take an individual action against them. There are two things: Either he will kill you or he will die. When they kill them, then the problem will be solved."

Related link: Pirates chase, open fire on U.S. cruise ship

 U-TAPAO, Thailand – It once was a forward operating base for the U.S. Air Force during the Vietnam War. About 100 miles southeast of Bangkok and renamed as U-Tapao International Airport, it now has become the capital city's only air link to the outside world – and a way out for the tens of thousands of tourists stranded in Thailand.

Used mostly by occasional charter flights, the airport only has one runway, one small terminal, and one X-ray machine. It has only four check-in counters, and one crane to lift luggage onto planes.

VIDEO: Stranded tourists start trickle out of Thailand

Yet they were hoping to get 50 flights out today – an impressive total, but only a fraction of the 700 flights a day that routinely used Bangkok's main airport, Suvarnabumi, before it was seized by anti-government protesters. (Airlines are also stepping up departures out of Thailand's other main international gateways, Chiang Mai and Phuket.)

This morning U-Tapao was chaos. "Organized chaos," according to John Landon from Colorado, who was making his way back home from a vacation on the resort island of Koh Samui. "The Thais have done really well to get this up and running."

Hundreds of tourists lined in the hot sun outside the tiny terminal building. "Don't worry," said a woman through a handheld loudspeaker, "Everybody will get on the plane. We won't go without you."

Departure information was scrawled on white boards, announcements shouted through a bullhorn.

The packed road by the terminal was lined with make-shift stalls selling food and drink. Water was handed out, and a local hotel had brought in a band and a group of dancing girls in an effort to lift the spirits of the beleaguered tourists, many of whom had been waiting for nearly a week to leave.

Buses jostled in the small parking area, from which tourists dragged their heavy bags towards the lines.

There were weekend reports of tourist anger, but on Monday the mood was one of resignation – and relief to be finally leaving.

For one group of young American students from a Hong Kong international school, it was all part of the adventure. "We missed two days of school," said one, with a sense of satisfaction.

Ian Williams / NBC News

Stranded tourists line up at the U-Tapao airport in Thailand in the hopes of catching a flight home.

Gene Fowler, from Chicago, had planned to be home for Thanksgiving, but instead had to spend the holiday in Bangkok, an inconvenience he took in stride. "I was here a few weeks after the last coup," he said. "And I was in Phuket two weeks after the tsunami. I don't let this sort of thing bother me."

For some, the day had begun with a 4 a.m. wake-up call at a Bangkok hotel. Some airlines are trying to organize check-in in the city, to reduce pressure at U-Tapao. Then it was a two to three hour drive to the air base, with the terminal inside a high security perimeter. For some, the wait at U-Tapao was up to six hours.

The road from Bangkok to U-Tapao passes Suvarnabumi airport. We visited on our way back. At the first check point, manned by the protesters' "security guards," there was a pile of police riot shields, seized in a brief clash at the weekend. The police had set up a small check-point of their own, but were driven away by protesters wielding iron bars, clubs and guns.

There has been no attempt to drive the protesters from the airport, and the protesters' militia – basically, an armed gang – is behaving with impunity, confident, it seems, that their backing from Bangkok's royalist elite puts them above the law.

Even in the unlikely event the protesters leave soon, it could be several days to clean up the airport and verify its compromised security systems, according to airport managers.

And in the meantime, the venerable U-Tapao is having its day amid the crowds and piles of baggage – and the dancing girls.

BEIJING – With colorful kites, art exhibits and inspirational performances across Beijing from the Bird's Nest Olympic stadium to the chic 798 Art District, Chinese and U.N. organizers marked World AIDS Day with a commitment to wage battle against the epidemic threatening the world's most populous nation.

The display of broad unity, with the attendance of some AIDS activists that have been targets of China's sporadic crackdowns in the past, was a touching tribute to this year's theme of "One Goal, One Dream – of a World without Stigma." 

"Stigma and discrimination are major obstacles in an effective response to AIDS," said Health Minister Chen Zhu at the launch of the campaign at the Bird's Nest Olympic stadium. "We need to engage all sectors of society in China to combat these issues and work to stop the disease."

Reuters

People walk past a giant red ribbon set up on the facade of the Bird's Nest during a World AIDS Day event in Beijing on Sunday.Â

The gravity of public misconceptions, persistent prejudice against AIDS victims, and new evidence showing that HIV/AIDS is quickly spreading from traditionally high-risk groups to the mainstream population are some of the forces compelling China to reassess how it deals with the epidemic.

In particular, the steady rise of unprotected intercourse with sex workers as a primary source of HIV/AIDS transmission is rekindling bold calls for the legalization of China's booming, but underground, commercial sex industry.

China has an estimated 700,000 people who are HIV-positive, with about 85,000 people suffering from full-blown AIDS, according to estimates released by the Chinese government and U.N. health organizations. In comparison, just over 1.1 million Americans are estimated to be infected with HIV.

In the 1990s, drug use accounted for 60-70 percent of reported infections in China, followed by unsanitary blood transfusions.

But in September, the Chinese Ministry of Health announced that sexual transmission had overtaken intravenous drug use as the main cause of HIV infections in China. 

In Beijing, in particular, sexual transmissions have accounted for 55 percent of cases so far this year. And from 2004 to 2007, the percentage of sex-related transmissions has risen steadily, from 24.9 percent in 2004 to 41.5 percent in 2007, according to a recent city survey.

The increased number of heterosexual transmissions has put a spotlight on the stigma attached to the virus, as well as the lack of awareness about safe sex methods.

According to the latest nationwide survey conducted by UNAIDS, more than 48 percent of Chinese thought they could contract HIV from a mosquito bite, while 18 percent thought they could get infected if an HIV-positive person sneezed or coughed on them. 

Two- thirds of respondents to the UNAIDS survey said they would not want to live with an HIV-positive person, while nearly 48 percent would be unwilling to have meals with the infected person. In a further hint of stigma, about 41 percent said they would be unwilling to work or share tools with the person who was HIV-positive, and 12 percent would not even touch a family member or relative with the infection.

But, at the same time, only 19 percent of the survey respondents said they would use a condom with a new sex partner, while 30 percent did not know how to use a condom correctly. 

And in a separate report by Beijing's health director, more than half of the city's prostitutes said they still shun the use of condoms despite the growing threat of HIV/AIDS transmission. The most recent survey of the city's prostitution industry shows that the nation's capital has some 90,000 commercial sex workers, of whom only 46.5 percent used condoms.

Eric Baculinao / NBC News

Dr. Wan Yanhai, left, with staff at an AIDS exhibit in Beijing on Nov. 30.

For Dr. Wan Yanhai, an outspoken AIDS campaigner, one way to avert the risk of a national health disaster is to involve the estimated millions of China's sex workers in the forefront of the fight against HIV/AIDS.

"But we must first legalize their profession," he said," so that we can regulate them and stop them from hiding, running from the police, or falling into the control of criminal syndicates."

Wan, formerly with China's Health Ministry, is the founding director of China's pioneering non-profit AIDS-awareness organization – the Beijing-based Aizhixing Institute of Health Education – which also established China's first HIV/AIDS hotline in 1994.

His frequent run-ins with authorities on gay rights and AIDS-related issues have landed him in detention three times in the past 12 years. In 2002, he was accused of leaking to the world a government report about the blood-buying scandal that caused large numbers of hapless poor farmers in central China to be infected with HIV/AIDS.

"We have to recognize the human rights of sex workers," he said as he explained his latest plan to hold a seminar to study the legalization issue. "We must establish their legal rights, before we can effectively organize them and conduct sex education and health education among them."

Other Chinese scholars have joined the calls for amending the government's laws and regulations in favor of a more "inter-disciplinary" approach. Among them is Academy of Social Sciences Professor Qiu Renzhong who told the Chinese magazine Caijing that "de-criminalizing" prostitution is needed to promote the use of condoms among sex workers and their clients.

Attempts to seek comment from Beijing's public security bureau on the issue were not successful, but it is public knowledge that the bureau has not joined other government bodies in endorsing the campaign to distribute more condoms in likely venues of prostitution in the past.

While Chinese leaders have definitely been more outspoken about confronting the disease in recent years and pledged to combat the stigmatization of the people infected ahead of World AIDS Day, it's yet to be seen whether or not they will change their policy towards the world's oldest profession and legalize prostitution in an effort to thwart the spread of the disease.