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AFP - Getty Images
This videograb from Syrian state television shows Syrian President Bashar al-Assad delivering a speech in Damascus on Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
CAIRO – It was a speech that was long in form, but short on new substance.
For the first time since June, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad spoke publicly, addressing a crowd at Damascus University in a nearly two-hour speech that was carried live on state television and around the Arab world.
But if Assad is under increasing international pressure and isolation, he certainly did not show it.
In fact, he was defiant as ever, seemingly casual at times but confident with his government’s course of action. At one point, he dismissed calls to step down, saying that while he never sought power, he would also not shy away from his responsibilities as the country's ruler.
The speech followed the same talking points the Syrian regime has been consistently delivering: There will be no let-up in the crackdown on what Syria describes as terrorists who are undermining the state and its sovereignty. Foreign hands are at work to divide Syria and sow sedition in an attempt to conquer the broader region.
But perhaps the strongest words from the president’s speech were targeted at the Arab League, the pan-Arab regional body, which has condemned Syria and sanctioned it for its violet crackdown on protesters that the U.N. estimates has killed 5,000 people since March 2011.
He even said the Arab League should be called the “Foreign League.” With that comment he seemed to be playing to his audience, if there is one thing that irks people across the Arab world uniformly it’s the notion of foreign powers intervening in their domestic affairs.
Tough spot for Arab League
Analysts say the Arab League is in a difficult position. Its 165-person observer mission in Syria is tasked with making sure Damascus complies with an agreement aimed at ending the violence. The mission has drawn criticism for its work and its composition – including the fact that a Sudanese general who has been accused of war crimes himself is in charge of the mission.
The observer mission is expected to submit its full report on Jan. 19 in Cairo. Russia says the mission is helping stabilize the country, but according to activists inside and outside Syria, the death toll continues to rise, leading many in the opposition to worry the mission could simply serve as a political cover for the continued crackdown.
Syrian opposition groups say the Syrian government is limiting the mobility and ability of the mission to freely see the facts on the ground. A group of Arab League observers were reportedly attacked by “unknown protesters” in the northern city of Latakia on Monday.
Opposition groups say they want the Arab League to refer the Syria crisis to the United Nations Security Council. But doing so may prove to be a double edge sword for the Arab body which does not want to appear as having given the green light for foreign action in yet another Arab country.
The fear among some within the Arab League, according to sources I have spoken to, is that such a move would pave the way for international intervention in Syria that could ultimately take the shape of military action. However, Western powers have expressed their unwillingness for any foreign military action in Syria like that in Libya.
The Arab League was criticized when it referred Libya to the United Nations. That move ultimately led to NATO military intervention that helped topple the Gadhafi regime.
Louai Beshara / AFP - Getty Images
Syrians watch President Bashar al-Assad's address on television in a cafe in Damascus on Tuesday.
The current Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby previously told me the Libya decision was a mistake (he was not the Secretary General at the time of that vote) and he did not want it repeated under his leadership.
The Syrian opposition has concluded that the Arab League is divided and weak to take any further actions to stop the bloodshed. But they are divided as well.
The opposition movements both inside and outside of Syria have been criticized for their inability to build a cohesive decision-making opposition body that could allay the fears of regional countries and also meet the immediate demands of the Syrian people in a possible post-Assad Syria.
‘A challenge of biblical proportions’
The larger international community isn’t stepping up to fill the leadership void, either. The international community is reluctant to get involved in Syria as it did in Libya. The regional fallout could be greater following any intervention in Syria than it was for Libya.
Security experts say Syria's military capabilities are far greater than Libya's and that poses a whole host of challenges.
“There are questions as to whether the process could be repeated, for example, in Syria,” said Jeremy Binnie, a senior analyst at IHS Jane’s, the defense and security intelligence provider. “Russia and China have expressed concerns that the U.N. resolution to protect Libyan civilians was loosely interpreted, the allies were up against inferior air defenses and the potential geo-strategic ramifications of the intervention were comparatively limited.”
Binnie explained how the situation in Syria differs from Libya. “The Syrian regime would be a significantly harder to topple and the fallout potentially far more serious, especially given the country’s arsenal of chemical weapons. Libya’s air defenses were a push over by comparison. Syria would be a challenge of biblical proportions compared with Libya.”
Hanging in the balance
For now, Assad says his government will press ahead with reforms while pushing for wider political participation from opposition groups. The president boldly promised that a new constitution would be put up for referendum later this spring and new elections would be held shortly after, a timetable that analysts say is unlikely to produce genuine reform.
Opposition groups have dismissed these as half-hearted measures and duplicitous. But with a divided opposition, timid Arab neighbors and an international community that lacks consensus on what to do, Assad has found a balance in which he continues to remain in power.
In Bashar Assad's first speech since June he vowed to use an "iron fist" when dealing with "terrorists." NBC's Brian Williams reports.
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Leave a Comment:
SSDD, (same sh1t different day)
No oil or significant natural resources so no need for the west to get involved. If a bunch of crazy Arabs want to kill each other, they have no problem with it. So long as the unrest does not spread into or effect neighboring countries, it is likely that nothing will be done and Assad will remain in power for some time to come.
Their problems are their problems we should stay out. It's not like those poor protestors in 1774-76 didn't have casualties. Or those poor protestors in the 1860-65 period. Casualties tend to happen in revolutions and civil wars. But sometimes deep divisions in countries can only be solved that way.
Assad's defiance is being bolstered by the opposition's divisions? What is he bolstering about?How he will have 4000 more Syrians killed within the first quarter of 2012 for protesting?
Correct. Assad is dividing families by murdering people wholesale.
And he'll probably get away with it.
Is 4000 a big number in a Muslim nation, especially ME?
Assad is a ruthless dictator, like his father. Killing 5,000 civilians is nothing compared to what's in store if the protests continue.
Only ruthless dictators survive in ME nations. Sunni Saudi Arabian, Bahrain, Kuwaiti and some more are worse.
Look at Iraq. Only Saddam could control it.
Now after "accomplishing mission", "establishing democracy" and "recconstruction" Iraq is on the verge of bloody civil wars between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds!
You know that makes a bloodthirsty dictator like Ali Khamenei happy.
Thanks so much, China. Here's your Iranian oil.
Have you ever noticed how Assad's head looks like it was wrapped in a concrete pipe for the first six years of his life?
Syria needs to present a legitimate opposition leadership that can carry it through a transition period. As of yet, I am yet to see any credibly strong figures taking the reigns and putting forth a mandate outlining their vision of the future. How do they plan to face the corruption that has crippled their country? etc.
I would like to ask the author why the Arab league and the international community is so reluctant to focus the same time and attention to Bahrain as it does Syria? Human rights groups are announcing daily violations, across the country, against its own citizens. Though you may argue the number of deaths of innocent civilians and peaceful revolutionaries is inexplicably large and on the rise in Syria, the proportion being recorded is the same in Bahrain which boasts a far smaller population. When will their voices be heard?
The most cognent opinion is by Hossein Sheikholeslam, a former Ambassador to Syria and Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani's advisor on international matters (Majlis- in Teheran,Iran). For background on the variants in Syria. read http://www.tehrantimes.com/opinion/94391-us-using-salafis-as-tools-to-destabilize-syria )10 Jan 2012). There are many opinions from EU countries- North America-Middle East. and Asia. Syria belongs to so many UN orgs and International Orgs and nowhere in sight are there people with clean hands. Hafez al-Assad the first Homa masskiller (over 20,000) in 1982 was welcomed to take part in the First Iraq War as a US/AL partner,in 1991- his son Assad got an US Ambassador- Syria belongs (belonged before ousting)to so many International and UN Orgs with subpoena powers. Different ethnic and religious groups western inspired ,and those trying to impose their dogmas from outside. Different Syrians whatever their ethnicity and spiritualism should unite for the commno good of all and have an equal say in the state's affairs.
Assad's head looks like a two faced Elf to me, An evil elf at that.
His whole family is nothing but pure evil and his only supporters are the ones that have gained financially from his rein.
As long as the US stays out of there I'm happy, I hope the Syrian people can overthrow this lunatic and soon before more innocent people are lost.
Once and If all these dictators are removed it will still take 15-30 years for everything to stabilise after the people finish fighting each other over who is going to take control.
"no let-up in the crackdown on what Syria describes as terrorists who are undermining the state and its sovereignty."
Assad should know that Saudi Arabia and its puppets and paid agents like Arab League (he should have named it as Saudi Arabia League), UN, human rights groups, oil companies and their lobbyists are behind his troubles.
He should crack down heavily on Sunni terrorists. Why can't the Sunnis and their radicals and terrorists tolerate a better and a more modern Shiite ruler?
In that case, Bahrain deserves a Shiite ruler instead of despotic, barbaric and bigoted Sunni ruler.
It will never never be the same for Assad.
He has muddied too much water. That it is recognized that the opposition is divided at this point should also be worrisome for the pinheaded dictator. This just means the next step will be to organize.....
...and then it will be much, much worse.
PS: Get out while the getting's good....and take your miserable military and security services with you.
....you will all be dead meat before the end of 2012...
It is just obstacles like the Assad Dictatorship that create united countries.
He is actually doing Syria a favor....
Yea, Syria's air defenses are so great that Israeli fighter jets entered their airspace undetected and blew up one of their nuclear reactors a couple years ago.
President Obama needs to identify what are strategic goals are and what the risks are in achieving those goals and make a decision. This may be an opportunity to exert pressure on Iran which is the biggest threat in the region, much more than terrorism.