E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSS
Mohsen Milani, chair of the department of Government and International Affairs at the University of South Florida in Tampa, Fla.
Clashes between Iranian police and tens of thousands of protesters erupted in central Tehran on Monday as security forces beat and fired tear gas at opposition supporters hoping to evoke Egypt's recent popular uprising. The opposition -- the “Green Movement,” which held months of protests after Iran’s disputed 2009 presidential elections -- called for the demonstration in solidarity with Egypt's popular revolt, which forced the country’s president to resign last week after nearly 30 years in office. The rally is the first major show of strength for Iran's cowed opposition in more than a year.
Msnbc.com invited Mohsen Milani, professor of politics and chair of the department of Government and International Affairs at the University of South Florida in Tampa, Fla., to respond to questions about the renewed demonstrations by the Iranian opposition and the impact of Egypt’s protests on the region. Milani has written extensively about Iran’s foreign and security policies, the Persian Gulf, and Iran’s revolution of 1979.
What are you hearing about what is happening in Iran today?
So far, there are conflicting reports about the size of the pro-democracy demonstrations in Tehran and other cities. It appears that there were no large pro-democracy demonstrations, as some people had hoped for. My impression is that there were small gatherings of protesters here and there, but the police and the security forces were conspicuously present and were determined to contain the gatherings.
Are you surprised that the protesters took to the streets despite the government telling them not to demonstrate?
Not really. Immediately after the disputed June presidential election in Iran in 2009, millions of Iranians took to the street of the country’s major cities, asking, “Where is my vote?” While it is true that Iran’s security forces crushed the June uprising, they have been unable to eradicate the roots of discontent, particularly among Iran’s highly educated, restless and computer-savvy young generation. The opponents of the Islamic Republic are looking for every opportunity to publicly express their dissatisfaction, and they thought that the Cairo uprising had created a favorable international atmosphere to revitalize their movement. But when they publicly announce their plans for demonstrations and even publicize the routes for their marches, they should not have expected that Iran’s highly effective security forces would allow them to assemble in large numbers.
What does this mean for the future of the opposition movement in Iran?
The planned demonstrations today were ostensibly in support of the uprising in Egypt. The “Green Movement” has to operate based on its own clock and must determine its own tempo depending on the conditions in Iran, and not on what is happening in Cairo or elsewhere. Tehran is not Cairo, and the Islamic Republic is not Mubarak’s regime. While the U.S. enjoyed limited influence to persuade Mubarak and the Egyptian armed forces not to rely on brute force, it has no such leverage with the Islamic Republic. This is why the pro-American regimes in the region are somewhat more vulnerable to this new wave of democracy.
Will Egypt re-energize the Green Movement?
Are members of the opposition in Iran in contact with protest organizers/youth movement in Egypt?
Based on Monday’s report in The New York Times, there were some contacts between the youth movements of the two countries.
Do you think what happened in Egypt will impact the rest of the region?
Yes, I do. What happened in Egypt in those eighteen days was an inspiring, momentous, authentic and heroic movement to promote democracy. It was a dignified and popular uprising that started with the youth and captured the world’s imagination, and proved that it is possible for the people to overthrow a well-entrenched regime through peaceful means. Egyptians from all walks of life and from all ideological persuasions were united in demanding an end to Mubarak’s corrupt and authoritarian rule -- a regime that deprived the people of their basic human rights and brutally suppressed all voices of dissent. Every president-for-life, king, demagogic leader and theocrat in the Middle East and beyond is probably feeling vulnerable and nervous now. And that is good. The people in Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain and Algeria are demanding meaningful changes from their leaders. In the medium and long term, however, the impact of the Egyptian uprising is not that clear. If democracy develops in Egypt, or if some kind of representative, parliamentary system is established there, then Egypt could become the harbinger of a much-needed democratic order in that troubled region. On the other hand, if chaos prevails in Egypt, or if the military reestablishes its rule and imposes “Mubarakism without Mubarak,” then all democratic forces in the region will suffer. We can say that a new chapter has indeed been opened in the region’s history, but the pages and the conclusions of it will be written in the coming years.
Leave a Comment:
All Middle-Eastern dictators must be overthrown and their governments replaced by a military tribune. Borders established by colonial empires will then be erased with Tel Aviv becoming the new capital. Democratic elections will quickly be held to choose a new King Solomon, his wisdom and justice must be beyond reproach.
Ahhh..... bit in the wise words of Graham Chapman, "You don't vote for King!"
Democratic elections can't choose a king. The meanings are oxymoronic. As for Tel Aviv becoming the new capital, you might want to speak to the other nations of the Middle east about that. I am guessing that it won't sit too well... Then again, perhaps your entire post was intended to be facetious, at which point I would say that your comment was very witty and well-chosen...
I pray for the People of Iran to find the strength to throw off the shackles of their oppressive rulers! God Bless the People of Iran!
The USA has no right to interfere in the internal affairs of other nations let alone talk about freedom and democracy while the US Elite represses the Libertarians, Greens, and other movements with discriminatory ballot access laws and censorship.
The US Press which talks about freedom and democracy with so much hypocrisy tend to forget the following:
1. Ohio nullified more than 25,000 signatures in the Gubernatorial Race from the Libertarian Party on mere technicalities.
2. Florida 2010: Crist, Meeks, and Rubio were allowed to participate in debates but Snitker [for being Libertarian] was excluded.
Either the US Practice what it preaches or it should remain silent
i hope this is a domino effect that will not skip all of the other backward countries that their people have been allowed no voice. the oppressed Iranian people are now comming into the 21st century and are seeing the light of freedom that the rest of the world has or is reaching for. their religous dictators, have fitted them with blinders like a plow mule. live and let be,,, free to make a choice
"Where is my vote? "
The greatest lie about what in Iranian Raiye Mara Pas bedeh means . Any Iranian who knows English would know that it means return my vote in a deeper mean that I do not want to be part of this voteing count , that I do not want to support this regieme.
For a TRAITER like Mihsen Milani who probably an agent of the CIA, he can easily lie and interpret the slogan ; How ever the translation and its interpretation are clear to any bilingual Iranian/English speaking person .
The other point that the Media misinterpret about the slogans on the streets was that the people were shouting: Marg Bar Diktator, which was a clear slogen as to Death to the dictator. The Media kept say that the crowds are chanting death to the Sabeteur. This was another lie that was made in order to falsify the true intent of the protesters.
As in the assembly where Khamanei and his fellow cleriks were making their speeches the followers were clearly saying the famous slogen Marg Bar Amrika and it was never interpreted : Death to America.
The US president's last interview before the protests were severly clamped down was that he still could see the situation could be saved and the Islamic government was still able to reverse the situation was seen as a clear green light for the Islamic Republic to suppress thye people which it did and thousands were arrested and disapeared.
Thanks to bastard traiters like Mr. Milani who tell lies and fake history so that they could get some good positions and blood money for selling his own people.
Ask any Iranian what does Raiye Mara Pas bedeh and he or she will tell you exactly it does not mean Where Is My Vote.
To say where is My vote in Iranian is Raiye man KOjast ???? Milani: You will some day pay for your fakeness and your lies in your own conscience.
definitly you will not die smiling as you would know what you did and how many lives it costed for you to get your paycheck from all those sources who support your nonesence. And you are not alone.
Many have sold their nation and people . They will pay too in the day of judgement.
I am an Iranian . I do not respect the words of a man who claims to be a scholor as Millani and does not know the translation of the clear slogen Raiye Mara Pas bedeh means .
Those brave Iranians did not submit to the none Iranian regieme. They wanted to save Iran and not make it another republic or another democracy slave to the economy of the USA. They want a revival of the great Iran. Not a slave Iran.
Maybe Iran would be better with a constitutional monarchy like the UK. Anything has to be better than what they have now. The current Iranian Regime will spill blood in the streets to say in power.
All I can say to the leaders is what John Wilkes Booth said when he shot Lincoln. "Sic Semper Tyranisis" All tyrants musts die.
A better question would be "what is the future of the ayatollahs and their Islamic revolution? after 30 years of this nazi like state I hope the answer is "their days are numbered" with their bombs ,their genocidal and racist pyscho babble, with their terrorist attacks for 30 years....I hope the numbers are very small for them to be overthrown.. because the world is getting impatient and will attack to bring down this horror story ..anytime soon,, if they don`t give up their nuke bomb program ...
A better question would be "what is the future of the ayatollahs and their Islamic revolution? after 30 years of this nazi like state I hope the answer is "their days are numbered" with their bombs ,their genocidal and racist pyscho babble, with their terrorist attacks for 30 years....I hope the numbers are very small for them to be overthrown.. because thr world is getting impatient and will attack to bring down this horror story ..anytime soon,, if they on`t give up their nuke bomb program