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TUNIS, Tunisia – The Arab world has been changed by the uprising in Tunisia, but don’t expect to see the region’s government officials booking bulk rates on charter planes to Saudi Arabia any time soon. The changes that Tunisia’s popular revolt will bring to the Middle East will be slow, but profound, according to Middle East experts.
But what do they know? Middle East experts didn’t predict a month ago that Tunisia’s autocratic regime would fall like a cardiac case, so take their comments with a shaker of salt.
Why did Tunis fall you ask again? Tunisia was an incongruous blend of poor people living in a rich country; educated people living in a boorish, outdated police state.
Thibault Camus / AP
Protestor holds a Tunisian flag as he shouts slogans during a demonstration against the party of deposed President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, in the center of Tunis, Wednesday.
Under the so-black-it’s-almost-purple-haired 74-year-old President Zine el-Abideen Ben Ali, currently cooling his heels in exile in Saudi Arabia, Tunisia’s economy was strong. But Tunisians lost their tolerance for old-fashioned repression and dictators’ timeworn favorites, like censorship, police intimidation and one-party rule.
To the Tunisian kids, it felt oh so Stalin-like, so passé. Most Tunisians these days are on Facebook, that Web page some of you might have used that seems to want to take credit for every revolt on the planet, including the ones claimed by Twitter. Before Facebook and Twitter, students and other agitators with low boiling points organized revolts by talking. The tongue was the mighty weapon when a rallying cry was actually cried, but we didn’t call them Tongue Revolutions.
When not coming up with excuses for failing to predict the ouster of Tunisia’s president, most Middle East experts point to Egypt’s leaders as the next candidates to earn frequent flier miles on Saudi Arabian Airlines.
Like in Tunisia, Egypt’s population is rapidly losing interest in being told what to do. But President Hosni Mubarak, who appears to share a colorist with Ben Ali, knows how to contain a revolt. Egypt has been in a state of emergency since 1981. Its security services are accused of being both brutal and efficient, with brutal playing the starring role. It seems unlikely that a few thousand protesters would send the Egyptian government shopping for suitcases.
The Tunisia effect could be a slow burn. Mubarak has made it as clear as Nile water (which is not that clear, yet clear enough) that he wants his son Gamal to follow him as president. Will that still be possible?
The Egyptian people might not have accepted Gamal as the political waters stood a month ago. Now that Ben Ali has left for his off-season pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia, Egyptians’ tolerance for events that might have seemed inevitable could be lower. Even renowned fatalists like Egyptians might decide to decide their own futures. (Note to readers based on this journalist’s experiences living in Egypt: It is best to avoid riding in taxis in places where people believe they do not control their own destinies. Fatalism may bring inner peace, but it is not good for defensive driving.)
Which other countries in the Middle East have educated, fed-up people, along with poverty, repressive regimes and high corruption you ask again? The list is long. Which will fall next, if any?
Middle East experts will undoubtedly spend great amounts of time and limited brainpower guessing the wrong ones, not that that matters much. Facebook will take credit for the revolutions in any case.
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Just in case Mr. Engel hadn't noticed, politics are fluid worldwide. Tunisia's uprising did the same thing to their national leadership that our most recent elections did to ours. The people are finally demanding that governments represent them, instead of being self-serving power bases for a few elite. That this could happen everywhere in the world, albeit with more pain in some places than others, is great.
Don't kid yourself. Corporations bought off the last US election. This is not so much the people have spoken as it is giant corporations have spoken.
Business controls and shapes government, not the will of the people. Eyes wide shut.
Corporations did not mark my ballot for me.
Paduki
You actually think the last election got us a government that represents the people!?!?!? Let's see....Not even CLOSE to enough has been none to stop another financial emergency in this country. That bill that got signed is a bad joke on the American people. The promise of getting rid of the Patriot act was a lie, then legislation was signed that lets the government shut down the internet just like Iran did to their people, this would take away our best vessel for free speech. There are more lobbyists in the government than any other time in history. (another broken promise) Making this the most corrupt government of all time. Keep your eyes closed and let our contry continue to be run by banks and Wall street since it is working so well!
No MOS in Colorado...they didn't have to. All they had to do is spend, spend, and spend to elect people with the agenda's that suited their needs and spend some more on those disgusting ads with their half-truths and sometimes outright lies. And people buy it. The lack of discernment I see in the average American leaves me wondering at times if they went to school at all...but then I forget, our schools are about memorizing, not learning.
@MOS in Colorado> Corporations paid millions and millions to counter advertise there opponents ads so that there laws could be passed, so they can make more money, which means more power. Because the typical ignorant mid American will most likely believe everything. Especially if it is a charming person, who promises change. (only the baseof politics since Rome)
I'm sure you where sitting at home one day watching your favorite reality tv show, eating your favorite over-sized fast food hand burger, then a commercial comes up, and convinces you "make the right choice" ha ha "for America!" and you change your vote, and elect yet another corrupt politician, because the honest one can't compete against multi billion dollar corporation.
SO in reality, they did mark your ballet for you, you are just too ignorant to figure it out.
Great article Richard Engel. Technology will break the grip of religious rule, with luck, all religion as well. The ancient rulers figured out long ago, knowledge forces people to question these tales and are a threat to the status quo. Such as "The Garden of Forbidden Knowledge," fables of the Bible.
Calidude69bella and
Marie485962
Quit crying, wah wah. Thats the way of the liberal, to blame someone else when something doesn't go their way. Wah, wah.
Corporations didn't mark my ballet either. I do my research. I didn't mark all right either. I do my research again.
Most liberals are Demos. Most liberals are socialist or communist pigs.
I'm a originalist and a patriot. I've read the Federalist papers. I've read and researched what the forefathers wanted for this nation.
I will fight the good fight, to the death, against you liberals who want to take away my rights and give my money to lazy bums (entitlement).
I stand for something because I refuse to fall for anything.
For all those complaining that 'Big Money' bought the last election here are 2 figures:
Total money spent for all elections, local, state and federal, 2010: $4 Billion.
Total money spent in the U.S. on HALLOWEEN, 2010: $5.4 Billion.
Enough said.
4 Billion!!! Are you @!$%#ing kidding me
$3.98 Billion, actually. Google it yourself, the entry dated November 4, 2010 breaks it down by party, etc.
Americans are at long coming out of their daydream and the state of the union adress will be the alarm clock. Heres why. Jobs offshoed no work for Americans, Illegal immigreats taking the scraps for cheap labor, tax's on the middle MORE then the RICK!, home forclosed (you cant pay a mortage without a job or a job that pays a non living wage, and a goverment that is totally by Wall Street.. Tonight the statr of the union will try to make us "FEEL GOOD" as our government ( Wall STREET owned by Isreal) signes new treade agreements.. yes I think Americans are strangly silent but not for the reasons our jailer's think we are silent before the storm and the storm alarm clock will go off tonight, it;s to late for the state of the unionspeech to change indeed the powers that be are too blind to see realty anyway so bring on the happy talk to the unemployed homeless o soon to be homeless keep your bonus in fact make them BIGGER keep your empty headed over payed talking heads on TV while you fire anyone with information and a soul it only helps to fulei the silent rage!!Oh I just saw an add for lower mortage rates too little to late!!
Yes, I'd have to agree with your prespective. Although the long trem prospect of some serious middle eastern seat squriming is kinda fun to think about!
The people will speak in time.
Arab leaders are all scum. They use their office to rip off the people. Overthrow them all and then hang em.
When the Mullahs start to feel threatened, the Shiite will really hit the fan! ;-)
ha!ha! nice one mate!!!!
The Arab Muslim world has long been a hot bed of suppresion, autocratic rule, they are mostly responsible for the continuation of Arab- Israeli conflict. The sooner they fall, the better the world will be in the Midle east!
Hopefully America and Britain don't have the democratically elected officials assassinated and install sympathetic dictators so that they can get at the countries natural resources; Again!!
This is because they are all the arabs in the world are feeling the pinch of who they really are.
This is a good start.
Next: Saudi Arabia
Then: Iran
Then: Israel
Then: Egypt
Then: USA
Like dominoes.........
Keep dreaming...
Nice try, but Israel and the USA are already democracies.
Hhmmmmm....one flew over the cookoos nest
Well, we're not technically a democracy, we are a republic where the states are supposed to have the most control by representing their citizens and the federal government is supposed to take care of our national defense. Funny how we've ended up but I think we are on the beginning of the path back to the great nation that was founded for us. I will be glad when we get there. Then no one person who finds our everyday life "offensive" will be able to change the way things had been since the beginning of our country. Each state can decide if our kids pray in school, if we can grade our students to promote competition and better outselves, whether the federal government can stick its nose into every aspect of our lives and tell us to buy insurance or do anything else, and what laws to protect our borders will be enforced instead of ignored. Anyone who doesn't like the way things are in one state is quite free to move to another or if you aren't from here you are equally free to go home.
Oh yeah, real great. And when I go to NH to shop, I'll have to get my passport stamped at the state border.
One country, one law. Some of us don't get a choice in where we will live...like those of us actually defending your ability to say stupid @!$%#.
Israel and America? What drug are you on? People were meant to be self terminating. Not controlled like puppets by a group of people who consider themselves above the rest of us. Democracy, with all it's faults, is still the best way for the people of this planet to be free. The dark ages have passed. The spirit of freedom is reaching out to every part of this world. It is the genie out of the bottle, and no one can put it back in. Long may freedom ring in the hearts and minds of men. WE THE PEOPLE......
Israel is a theocracy.
The United States is a Republic.
Lee, I hope you meant Self-Determining. For all you state's rightists who haven't served 26 years in the military like I have. America IS the federal government. That is what was formed in 1776 through 1789. Without it we are just a bunch of states with no cohesion. Do you get it, folks. The USA is held together by federal laws, federal organizations like the US Army, USAF and many others. Without interstate commerce, organized unified defense and cooperation, facilitated and enforced by Federal law, we would just be easy pickins for enemy nations. People who would like to secede like the Governor of Texas and Sarah Palin (yes, she was an Alaska Firster; that means America last) are the worst betrayers of the grand concept of America. Do you get it? Without the Federal government, we are nothing.
Israel in the US are Corperation's based in the USA. The American people are total slaves to Israel and they are begaing to realize it. The Republic of the USA went down with out a fight after President Carter was was set up by Isareal in the little plane couterattack. Strang how President Carter is never thanked for being RIGHT infact NO ONE EVER TALKS ABOUT THE FACT THAT CARTER WAS RIGHT...not even a wimper.. did you ever wonder why??
the arab leaders r trying to absorbe the impact of the tnisisan uprising by lowering some of the essential comodeties for consumers,they even went further ,like giving each of every one of there population $3.500.00,this is the case of the kuwait prince to gain the peoples concent,but ithing it,s kind of late to show that they care after all these years of oppresion by the one party rule or the family ruling....why now simlpy it,s the fear they have now from there own people,to rise against there dictatorship,but this spark is unstopable bcse the fear barrier has been broken,it will go on like adomino ,and subsiquently all will fall,,,,,good luck it,s better for them and the rest of the world.
the tunisian people have set agood example of getting rid of all these dictators,be aware of the fallen party remenance they will try to come back with the help of the rest of the arab leaders,the traitors,the scums.
Seems like Tunisia had a virtually bloodless popular culture coup. However, the world is full of impoverished countries led by oligarchs of every persuasion. Whether the Tunisian contagion will spread likely depends on how empowered people feel. In 1968 in Peru a military coup was touted as an Andean popular uprising with serious potential for change which could spread across Latin America. The result in the other countries was harsh repression by dictators.
iPan - The USA doesn't need a Tunisian style revolt. We have the ballet box. Or are you one of the Elite who feel the great unwashed majority aren't capable of voting intelligently?
I certainly wouldn't accept an elite label, but a growing majority of our citizens appear to be unable to vote in the interest of our country, stay up with current events, or fulfill their other civic duties (like making their wishes known to their elected representatives between elections).
A growing majority of our citizens appear to be unable to THINK for themselves. The are subject to the medias 'interpretation' of politics, society and even each other. We fail to see the corporations stranglehold on our government and the downright ambivalence of our elected officials. We ignore the major issues to focus on Facebook, tea bags and birth certificates.. Meanwhile our banks are looting the treasury, our borders are overrun and our debt to China grows to outrageous figures. We confuse supporting our troops with supporting unjust military action ordered by our gov't. Our short term memories allow us to ignore the environmental disasters we are causing/facing in favor of our dependency on fossil fuels. All the while our cities' infrastructure decays, our poverty line elevates, our education system fails, lenders repossess entire subdivisions and auction them to Chinese corporations.. and on and on and on... It took a while for Rome to fall too... but fall it did...
If you continue to use being 'right in your own mind' as justification.. one day your mind will be the only place you have left to live....
I vote and every election and soon after no matter who i vote for they change to bad Sanders is not in my state, I wonder if the two uninvited party goes sent a message to Obama that if he wanted to live he better dance to a different tune after all they could have killed him in his wife and possibily his children. Thinlk about it " THEY GOT IN AND HAD A FACE TO FACE WITH THE PRESIDENT" how nice.
Seems like Tunisia had a virtually bloodless pop culture coup. However, the world is replete with impoverished countries led by oligarchs of every persuasion. Whether the Tunisian contagion will spread likely depends on how empowered "the people" feel. The 1968 Peruvian coup was touted as the Andean popular uprising of such potential to cause change across Latin America. The result was harsh repression by dictators across the region. Nevertheless, interesting insights by Richard Engel. Comment by Cerridwenao
So it's a THUMB revolution!
As opposed, of course, to a tongue revolution!
Good report Richard -- informative and enjoyable as always.
Take care and be safe-
Celine
More than 20 years ago I worked in a Persian Gulf country and visited most of the region. What a place!! Corruption, dictatorship, arbitraby arrest, censorhip etc etc. Nowdays the population is young, more educated and informed by connecting on the internet. The Arab dictators will fall one by one, it is a matter of time!!
The old Soviet style regimes of Eastern Europe were angels compare to today's Arab dictators!!!!
The Army in Tunisia,for reasons known only to them and which may become apparent one day,chose not to back this Ben Ali.At the point this became clear,Ben Ali was late for his plane. While Tunisia's protesters may have had valid heartfelt motivations,and Facebook and Twitter and all the rest,reality is that it was a decision on the part of the Military that caused the actual downfall of Ben Ali. They will almost assuredly seek to fill the power vacuum in the coming days.They have shown their power and will be a force that must be reckoned with in any new Govt.
Certainly agree about Egyptian cab drivers. Unbelievable!
Other problem is that, in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has been waiting in the wings to be the next totalitarian authority there. There seem to be no good choices there, which is a sad thing, since the Egyptian people themselves are quite wonderful.
No different than any other country. Corruption is rampant. They keep on mentioning Arab country. Wait and see what will happen in israel. The internal tension and divide is over the top. The only reason there was no uprising YET is because our government keeps on pacifying them with $15 Billion a year of our own hard earned money and we are fighting their wars by proxy (i.e. Iraq)...
I am not sure that Tunisia & Egypt are in the Middle East, even though many would have loved that.
Thx
Actually they are both in Northern Africa.
Problem is, be careful which dictator you get rid of: We overthrew Saddam, admittedly a bad guy with sadistic insane children. But when we did, what have we got there now? Christians used to be somewhat safe, now they are being killed by all sides. Sunnis and Shiites kill each other - is the country really better off now? And until a whole new generation grows up with a history of settlilng arguments through elections and laws, nothing is going to get better - just a question of what the current dictator wants things to be.
Getting rid of Saddam only opened the door for Iran to make a complete puppet of Iraq. Nice job, Bush!
to the king n i
Do you have spellcheck?
Lets hope changes that come are real changes and that one dictator is not replaced by another. We can hope any new government has checks and balances and develops a history of living past presidents. We can also hope that new constitutions contain a Bill of Rights for all people living in the country. The rule of law - not gun must prevail.
One of the biggest challenges will be to change the thinking of the people. They must determine to vote for the candidate who has the best plan to govern the country and who is honest and capable and stop worrying about his religion, family, or the region of the country where he was born.
Good luck to all.
So these people want freedom? setback for the status quo in the arab world / maybe......
Saudi just keeps allowing their fellow crooks of leaders come to their country. Good for Tunisia long live freedom. Maybe it will happen in iran, it is time the middle east realize their people need to be treated properly and the wealth shared and no more dictator like leaders.
Saudi could be one of the next ones to change if they don't start taking care of people.
The writing sparkles. Incisive, insightful, and slightly acidic.
All you have do is tell the Egyptians to pay attention to what happened when the U.S. had the son of a President take over the job. The revolt will start tomorrow.
the revolt will start in 25th of january in EGYPT.!! WATCH THE NEWS i am egyptian and people are preparing for the revolution, i only hope it does not end badly on us. prayers
Canister shot...close range. Going to suck.